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  #1641  
Old 12-02-2019, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by smoll View Post
They're in more trouble than us. TheI big strength has been their defending with Murray nicking the odd goal. They've recently let in 4 v Fulham and 3 to Burnley so something isn't right. Long may it continue
Brighton have had plenty of luck since promotion, no key injuries, crucial.

I believe their luck has or is running out, the clear handball by a Burnley player missed by the ref going some way to balancing the books.

Brighton have not been in a proper relegation scrap and as we know it takes a certain spirit to overcome it. Pressure is growing, can they deal with it?

Cardiff have more chance of surviving than Brighton and Southampton in my opinion.
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  #1642  
Old 12-02-2019, 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by LuieJack View Post
Thankfully Wolves pegged them back, but what it shows there is a cluster of teams including Palace fighting against what in reality is going to be ONE remaining relegation place. I still feel once the euphoria has settled and reality kicks in, it will be Cardiff who will drop.
I just feel Warnock will keep them up.
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  #1643  
Old 12-02-2019, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by aj4england View Post
Recent form considered, along with upcoming fixtures, Wolves equaliser was crucial.

Fulham and Huddersfield I would say are almost 100% down, meaning 1 place left. All teams left in it have a clear identity with perhaps us and then to a much lesser degree, Southampton as the more "footballing" sides. That said, generally just over 1 point per game keeps you up (39) so with that in mind, we are on course....just

The next 3 are key, with very few mini league bottom 6 playing each other (2 out of 18 games, Newcastle v Burnley, Burnley v Palace)
(Taken 7 points from last 5)
Cardiff V Watford
Cardiff v Everton
Wolves v Cardiff

(Taken 9 points from last 5)
Burnley v Spurs
Newcastle v Burnley
Burnley v Palace

(Taken 7 points from last 5)
Newcastle v Huddersfield
Newcastle v Burnley
West Ham v Newcastle

(Taken 5 points from last 5)
Leicester vs Palace
Palace v Man U
Burnley v Palace

(Taken 1 point from last 5) (Despite being one of the worst form teams 19th over lats 5 games, they now face form ranked #14, #18, #20)
Chelsea v Brighton
Leicester v Brighton
Brighton v Huddersfield

(Taken 8 points from last 5)
Arsenal v Saints
Saints v Fulham
Man Utd v Saints
nicely laid out - outside of the top two clubs, long term form is a reliable measure of the direction a team is going in - obviously there are a few exceptions to the rule (us away at Manchester City)
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  #1644  
Old 12-02-2019, 03:15 PM
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Chelsea v Brighton is postponed because of league cup final and a new date has not yet been set, so their next three games are against Leicester, Huddersfield then us

Which means Brighton could potentially drop another place or two before their next league gsme

Last edited by firesign; 12-02-2019 at 03:20 PM.
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  #1645  
Old 12-02-2019, 03:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Penstone Eagle View Post
Brighton have had plenty of luck since promotion, no key injuries, crucial.

I believe their luck has or is running out, the clear handball by a Burnley player missed by the ref going some way to balancing the books.

Brighton have not been in a proper relegation scrap and as we know it takes a certain spirit to overcome it. Pressure is growing, can they deal with it?

Cardiff have more chance of surviving than Brighton and Southampton in my opinion.
At start of season I thought Brighton would go down but think there early season form will be enough for them to stay up by end of season . Be different if they were where burnley cardiff Newcastle ect are now .
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  #1646  
Old 12-02-2019, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Spindle View Post
You are kidding? They are 3 points off the drop and are playing all but one of the teams below them. Each of those teams can play, except Huddersfield who are now playing without fear (should've beaten Arsenal).

Brighton are 9/1 for relegation, if I gambled I would bet on that.

They have us, Chelsea, Man City, Spurs, Arsenal and Wolves to play and I see maybe a point in that.
Not sure what's wrong with my post. I've just looked up the odds, and the bookies seem to agree with my assessment except for on Burnley.
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  #1647  
Old 12-02-2019, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by firesign View Post
Chelsea v Brighton is postponed because of league cup final and a new date has not yet been set, so their next three games are against Leicester, Huddersfield then us

Which means Brighton could potentially drop another place or two before their next league gsme
They could easily get 4-6 (or more) points from those and look very safe. Equally they could get none and look right in the mire.
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  #1648  
Old 13-02-2019, 10:59 PM
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Summary of Run In for Bottom 6-7 clubs
A Cardiff City Perpective


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  #1649  
Old 21-02-2019, 02:35 PM
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37 points have averaged survival over the 23 seasons of 38 games.

35.78 points is the average for the team in 18th place at the end of the season.

Over the 23 seasons (with 38 games), the average number of points gained by clubs in the relegation zone, after 26 games played, has been 12.65 by the end of the season.

The highest gain was 22 points, and the lowest was 7.

On only 5 occasions so far, after 26 games, has the relegation zone moved by more than 14 points.

37 is the average number needed to stay up, and a higher number was required only 7 times.
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  #1650  
Old 21-02-2019, 03:20 PM
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Both Cardiff and Brighton have to play 8 top 10 sides in their last 12 games.

Rather them than us as it means that they simply have to pick up points in their other remaining games including a number of wins.

A couple of defeats in these vital so-called easier games and they are as good as gone.

Brighton with just one win in their last 11 Premier League games should be very worried and their current 8/1 odds on being relegated should be shorter.

Palace who are 5 games unbeaten and who are playing well are 20/1 for relegation and hopefully soon we will not even be considered as a relegation team as we continue to pick up points on a regular basis.

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  #1651  
Old 21-02-2019, 09:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hdeagle View Post

Brighton with just one win in their last 11 Premier League games should be very worried and their current 8/1 odds on being relegated should be shorter.

Palace who are 5 games unbeaten and who are playing well are 20/1 for relegation

COYP
Brighton are on the same points total as us. If you think their odds of being relegated "should be shorter", what do you think our odds should be?

If anything, with both teams equal on points, I'd say the Palace odds offer the better value to a neutral
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  #1652  
Old 21-02-2019, 09:38 PM
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Most of those have taken more points than us over the last 5. A win at Leicester would settle a lot of nerves
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  #1653  
Old 21-02-2019, 10:35 PM
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I will repeat Brighton are 19th on current form whilst Palace are 10th on current form.

This means that over the last couple of months only doomed Huddersfield have been in worse form than Brighton who after beating Palace in early December were 9 points ahead of us and now we are above them.

Compare out of form Brighton's remaining 12 games to Palace's and then tell me that Brighton are not in a heap more relegation trouble than Palace are.

Still having to play 5 of the top 6 for example where they are likely to pick up very few points if any considering that they have only won 1 of their last 11 Premier League games.

Palace this year have been playing well and the same cannot be said of Brighton who are yet to win a single game.

Of the teams below Palace only Burnley and Southampton are in better form than us.

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  #1654  
Old 21-02-2019, 10:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hdeagle View Post
I will repeat Brighton are 19th on current form whilst Palace are 10th on current form.

This means that over the last couple of months only doomed Huddersfield have been in worse form than Brighton who after beating Palace in early December were 9 points ahead of us and now we are above them.

Compare out of form Brighton's remaining 12 games to Palace's and then tell me that Brighton are not in a heap more relegation trouble than Palace are.

Still having to play 5 of the top 6 for example where they are likely to pick up very few points if any considering that they have only won 1 of their last 11 Premier League games.

Palace this year have been playing well and the same cannot be said of Brighton who are yet to win a single game.

Of the teams below Palace only Burnley and Southampton are in better form than us.

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Looking at last 10 (instead of last 6) games, we're 9th in form.
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  #1655  
Old 22-02-2019, 06:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hdeagle View Post
I will repeat Brighton are 19th on current form whilst Palace are 10th on current form.

This means that over the last couple of months only doomed Huddersfield have been in worse form than Brighton who after beating Palace in early December were 9 points ahead of us and now we are above them.

Compare out of form Brighton's remaining 12 games to Palace's and then tell me that Brighton are not in a heap more relegation trouble than Palace are.

Still having to play 5 of the top 6 for example where they are likely to pick up very few points if any considering that they have only won 1 of their last 11 Premier League games.

Palace this year have been playing well and the same cannot be said of Brighton who are yet to win a single game.

Of the teams below Palace only Burnley and Southampton are in better form than us.

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They are not in a ' heap more' relegation trouble than us.

That's an exaggeration.
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Old 22-02-2019, 06:07 AM
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Win tomorrow and we can virtually pack our beach towel and concentrate on the cup. After that home games against Brighton, Huddersfield, Everton and Bournmeouth and away fixtures against Burnley, Cardiff and Newcastle will surely provide us with the additional 7/8 points we would need.
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  #1657  
Old 22-02-2019, 07:15 AM
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Old 22-02-2019, 07:23 AM
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'Form' or 'recent points' is all well and good but it can sometimes mean that a team with poor current form has simply played a load of difficult games recently and has a load of easier ones coming up.

It's an over-simplification, sure, but let's not pretend that current form is a guarantee of future form.

We're also approaching the stage of the season where the odd quirky result turns 'the form book' upside down.

Howabout we simply concentrate on getting as many points as we can? 11 or 12 should do it.
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  #1659  
Old 22-02-2019, 07:57 AM
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My memories not that good..but I recall some of the teams below us taking points off the top 6 teams quite easily, earlier in the season.
Those supposed top 6 teams have been in erratic forms as well at times.
Arsenal never get the results we want and Chelsea are plummeting. So when these relegation threatened teams play them at this time of year it's squeeky bum time for all concerned.

We have these same worries, conversations and concerns every bloody season...

And I wouldn't change it for the world...........I think.
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Old 22-02-2019, 08:50 AM
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If only there was a way to get the players to imbibe the sheer confidence and passion hd has.
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