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  #9961  
Old 09-10-2016, 06:16 PM
Nth Kent Eagle Nth Kent Eagle is offline
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So do I EWMG. The U.K has structural issues that won't be solvable with a hard Brexit. A low savings rate, dependence on German money, unrealistic promises on both private and public sector pensions and the need to fund 400bn on infrastructure not even counting the need for around 7 million new flats and houses just to accommodate population growth over the next half century. Immigration won't decrease if we leave the EU so those problems won't go away. A UK recession will drag the rest of Europe down too, unless of course the Bundesbank approves a gigantic EU and especially German infrastructure blitz.
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  #9962  
Old 09-10-2016, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by west country boy View Post
Amber Rudd willingly married AA Gill so she is clearly capable of any evil.
Or, Rudd is so awful even AA Gill chucked her
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  #9963  
Old 09-10-2016, 06:25 PM
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A UK recession will be very damaging to everyone, of course. That's why I can't really see it as bullying for the EU to insist on the four freedoms, and a swift break. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly.
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  #9964  
Old 09-10-2016, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Oisin View Post
Is there any source of pro-Brexit commentary that looks at the challenges and how to overcome them (where the answer isn't "they have to give us" or "it will turn out OK in the end without a plan")?
Where is the rational pro-Brexit debate on the policy choices? Genuine question.
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  #9965  
Old 09-10-2016, 06:59 PM
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Government has rowed back on listing foreign workers to "name and shame" companies. This is probably an even faster U-turn than any of those employed by Cameron, and he set new British records in this regard. Important to note that this admission was made by a completely separate Minister in an unrelated department.

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  #9966  
Old 09-10-2016, 07:13 PM
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Javed has said already that construction workers from the EU will be welcomed to build the houses and infrastructure. Obvious really as socially irresponsible firms failed to train young people in London despite high youth unemployment especially in some communities. The medical, transport, motor manufacturing, pharma, science, education, IT and financial industries and plenty of others to have dispensation soon. At least we can end the Posted Workers Directive which is being used to hold down wages.
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  #9967  
Old 09-10-2016, 07:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
At least we can end the Posted Workers Directive which is being used to hold down wages.
Again I have to ask why you make this claim about the UK specifically when we have no legislation that implements the PWD, since we instead had our own legislation like the National Minimum Wage Act?
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  #9968  
Old 09-10-2016, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by mik59 View Post
Again I have to ask why you make this claim about the UK specifically when we have no legislation that implements the PWD, since we instead had our own legislation like the National Minimum Wage Act?
I know of people who have been undercut on sites.
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  #9969  
Old 09-10-2016, 08:54 PM
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Q: How is the government playing it's hand badly ?

A: May is playing politics, trying to lure an imaginary cohort of "working-class" Labour/UKIP voters, by acting tough on immigration. It might seem a cunning ploy to the 150K Tory "true believer" party members, but it looks alarming and extremist to the moderate majority of the Tory voting middle-classes, who are already falling out of love with May (check out the comments and letters).
She has little understanding of economics or trade politics (we should be grateful that she trusts Hammond, who has the right experience and intuitions).
May also has no grip on her party - a cardinal sin for a Tory - Rudd, Johnson and Fox constantly blabbing, and constant mixed messages, and 'policy on the hoof'. And her circle of out-of-their-depth "advisors".
Add to that the choice of Fox, Davis and Johnson to prepare the negotiations .... a Dutch politician (probably Dijsselbloem), considered fairly friendly to Britain, was reported as saying (more in frustration than anger), that Fox and Davis not only don't know what they want, but don't understand the context and process. Fox, who reckons he is a "Washington insider", left the yanks "profoundly underwhelmed" on his recent trip to explain May's strategy.

Q: Why is the EU said to be "bullying Britain ?

A: Because the Lisbon Treaty guarantees a country withdrawing from the treaty, the right to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU in good faith.
What we have seen is a constant stream of threats from Commissioners and Council members including Merkel and Hollande, together with deliberate, government financed efforts to undermine and sabotage key parts of the British economy, in a predatory way. Nothing very surprising in this - for France, the EU was always a way of subsidising and protecting French industries incapable of reform, and German policy is driven mainly by mercantilist instincts - neither really believes in free trade.
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  #9970  
Old 09-10-2016, 08:57 PM
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Poor Britain getting bullied. What a load of bollox.
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  #9971  
Old 09-10-2016, 09:21 PM
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I don't think any country really believes in fair trade.
Interesting argument though, thank you.
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  #9972  
Old 10-10-2016, 08:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
I know of people who have been undercut on sites.
But that can't be due to implementation of the PWD. If we left EU today & rescinded all EU legislation by nightfall there would be no repeal of the PWD because it isn't on the UK statute books. What you are referring to must be caused by other factors.
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  #9973  
Old 10-10-2016, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Celestial Empire View Post
Q: Why is the EU said to be "bullying Britain ?

A: Because the Lisbon Treaty guarantees a country withdrawing from the treaty, the right to negotiate a trade agreement with the EU in good faith.
I don't get this bit. By "Lisbon" Treaty, I assume you mean Article 50 which was new and set out the withdrawal process. But it doesn't cover trade agreements which can only be done after leaving, when a 3rd country. Trade agreements are separately covered by pre-existing articles especially Article 3 that gives the Union exclusive competence on the customs union, which is the WTO's definition of the EU. (Whereas A50 allows the Council to lead on negotiations and agree by majority not unanimity which is what trade deals or treaties require.)

What Merkel et al are addressing is the UK's future relationship with the EU, which overlaps, of course, because it will be the basis of a trade deal. Importantly, that future relationship must be set out as a "framework" and agreed at the same time as the withdrawal agreement. It will be politically agreed because it is political and that's what some EU leaders are doing: managing the politics. They are signalling as much to their electorates, as to other leaders, that they'll protect the single market because that delivers jobs.
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  #9974  
Old 10-10-2016, 08:54 AM
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I know of people who have been undercut on sites.
Thats down to greed from the bosses.
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  #9975  
Old 10-10-2016, 09:27 AM
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Interesting article. I particularly like this comment from the bottom.

"Hello Ireland, Brexit Britain here!"

"Would you mind 'taking back control' for us please?"

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  #9976  
Old 10-10-2016, 09:39 AM
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[QUOTE=mik59;13263795]I don't get this bit. By "Lisbon" Treaty, I assume you mean Article 50 which was new and set out the withdrawal process. But it doesn't cover trade agreements which can only be done after leaving, when a 3rd country. Trade agreements are separately covered by pre-existing articles especially Article 3 that gives the Union exclusive competence on the customs union, which is the WTO's definition of the EU. (Whereas A50 allows the Council to lead on negotiations and agree by majority not unanimity which is what trade deals or treaties require.)

What Merkel et al are addressing is the UK's future relationship with the EU, which overlaps, of course, because it will be the basis of a trade deal. Importantly, that future relationship must be set out as a "framework" and agreed at the same time as the withdrawal agreement. It will be politically agreed because it is political and that's what some EU leaders are doing: managing the politics. They are signalling as much to their electorates, as to other leaders, that they'll protect the single market because that delivers jobs

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If the single market is creating jobs then how bad would it be without it? You're more familiar with this are than me but the bar chart on youth unemployment in the EU is a scandal. Hysteresis at its worst. Anyone interested should see the second link for adults. Britain does better there.

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  #9977  
Old 10-10-2016, 09:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
[/https://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/

If the single market is creating jobs then how bad would it be without it? You're more familiar with this are than me but the bar chart on youth unemployment in the EU is a scandal. Hysteresis at its worst.
Well, I meant that politically the message is that single market means jobs and most EU electorates get that. All parts of the single market e.g. there may be unrest over migration from outside the EU but in most countries they differentiate this from free movement of workers within the EU.

The single market has increased UK trade more than if we had not joined (& not at expense of trade from outside the EU either). "Proving" this relies on models because you can not go around and count jobs with a label stuck on them saying "this job was provided by the single market" and this won't wash with some people but the models do stand up to testing.

Youth unemployment is a different thing. First, the measures use the unemployment rate which is unsuitable for youth mainly because the survey samples capture people that are in some form of education or training. (Conversely, the NEET concept doesn't capture the reverse either, for technical reasons.) But even if you take the ratio, rather than rate, then there is clearly a problem but the problem lies with poor distribution within current business models (which increasingly invest in capital not labour) but even more so with national labour market policy especially in countries like Spain.
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  #9978  
Old 10-10-2016, 10:08 AM
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Thanks Mik. I feel that yes Britain, particularly London has been a beneficiary of the SEM and Germany has been the big winner of the Euro. Here is one of my main concerns about the EU. I can imagine Germany, possibly France and probably Holland benefitting but Italy, Greece, Portugal and on balance Ireland and Spain will be hit. We will be unfortunately widening the EU divide. Germany really now has to step up to the plate and deliver an infrastructure investment programme rather than rely on everyone else's consumers.
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:17 PM
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A bit tangential to this thread but since some have mentioned Germany's current position and future role (in an EU without the UK holding the ring) then here's a long report on how Berlin works out its foreign policy.

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  #9980  
Old 10-10-2016, 12:26 PM
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Its probably been discussed already, but just been checking out Liam Fox's speech at the WTO.

Worrying.

Most of it is just rhetoric about how we'll be an open and welcoming nation blah blah.

However, there is a very worrying part ...

He said:
Quote:
“The UK is a full and founding member of the WTO. We have our own schedules that we currently share with the rest of the EU. These set out our national commitments in the international trading system.”

The UK will continue to uphold these commitments when we leave the European Union.”
So ...


“The UK is a full and founding member of the WTO.”

True - unlikely anyone is going to question Britain’s membership itself. We were a founding member of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt), the WTO’s predecessor, and we’re a founding member of the WTO.

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“We have our own schedules that we currently share with the rest of the EU.”

Schedules are descriptions of a country’s tariff and subsidy arrangements with other countries in the WTO. They’re really long and very boring but a typical one would tell you what the country's tariffs are for wheat, say, or chicken. Sometimes that’s a set rate - like ten per cent on cars. Sometimes it varies. So you might have a tariff of four per cent on the first ten thousand tonnes of chickens you import and 15% on anything over that. That’s called a tariff rate quota.

Britain does not have its own schedules. We have EU schedules. Fox can say we have our own if he likes, but officials and lawyers at the WTO will disagree. We need to extract our schedules from the EU schedule, which is actually a horrifically difficult problem.

It’s not hard with tariffs, we can just replicate what the EU does there. But the tariff rate quotas are a nightmare, because they’re quantitative. The level set at one rate - the ten thousand tonnes of chicken - is shared across Europe. So we need to figure out how much of that chicken applies to us.

That’s something the EU and the UK need to figure out together. If we just unilaterally say it’s X amount, the EU, which is a member of the WTO in its own right, can trigger a dispute.

And that’s not all. Any WTO member state can trigger a dispute with us on the provisional schedule we lay down, if they feel their access to our market has been restricted or that they are on worse terms than they were when they made the original trading decisions. The WTO is minefield for British trade interests which will need a very experienced, very intelligent, very sensitive negotiating team to navigate. Fox’s speech does not suggest these things will be forthcoming.



“The UK will continue to uphold these commitments when we leave the European Union.”

This is potentially revealing. I say potentially because it's possible Fox simply has no idea what he's talking about and everything he says must be discounted.

The quickest and easiest way for us to write up some provisional schedules is to exactly replicate all the arrangements we have under the EU. That means that tariffs stay the same, the tariff rate quotas are worked out on the basis of the last three years’ trade flows and subsidies stay the same. This is invariably what we’ll do, because it’s the only way not to get into all sorts of complex wrangling with all the other member states.

But note what that means: Nothing changes. All that talk of taking back control during the referendum was illusionary. We will keep things exactly as they are, because that’s the only way to make the journey from the single market to WTO rules even vaguely doable. We're not taking back control. We are desperately trying to make a massive and perilous change in our economic arrangements without triggering huge job losses. And that means that we will copy whatever our EU arrangements were and paste them onto the WTO schedules.

But even that approach, which betrays all the rhetoric of the Brexit campaign, doesn't solve all the problems. Take rules against steel dumping, which protect our workers from competition from China. We’re obviously going to want to maintain those but the Chinese aren’t going to be having any of it. They’ll fight us on it, demanding that we demonstrate domestic injury and unfair trade. And at the moment we can’t fight back, because we don’t have an investigating authority capable of dealing with trade remedy measures. So even in this cheeriest of all possible worlds, we’ve got some major problems on our hands.

“There will be no legal vacuum.”

Fox is wrong here. It’s not that there’ll be a legal vacuum in the future. There’s a legal vacuum now. There are no WTO rules on what we’d be doing if we revert to their system.

There are rules on becoming a member, but we already are. There are rules on modifying a schedule, but we don’t have one. That’s why the WTO’s lawyers are bickering over what our status is and how to proceed.

The fact Fox makes these errors isn't really what's concerning about his speech. We’re used to that. This is a man who did his job as international trade secretary for a month before realising it was a legally and logically meaningless position to have been given.

What’s concerning is that Britain needs negotiators at the WTO doing the leg work now in order to prepare just in case we can’t get an EU deal and have to fall back on this system. We need relaxed informal talks with the Chinese and the Brazilians and everyone else to try to answer their initial concerns. That means that if we ever do have to put down provisional schedules, we’ll know where the problem areas are and can hopefully address them before it turns into a problem.

We urgently need smart ministers, clear-thinking and an army of trade experts and negotiators. Instead what we have is the international trade secretary talking nonsense.





Anyone else getting worried??
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