Turkish Invasion

[cockneyrebel]

Originally Posted by Oisin

No, I'm not in Syria, but it is being reported here that the ex members of Al-Nusra Front are heavily involved. I also saw that reported by the New Yorker.

I would be slightly careful with this. The media tends to just lump all Syrian rebels together. Turkey has a very uneasy relationship with the jihadist groups.

The FSA, sadly, are now a Turkish proxy and I think more likely to form the militias.

[Oisin]

Originally Posted by bubbs11

Another reason in hindsight to label David Cameron quite simply the biggest utter irresponsible tit to have ever held the PM office; he was one of those that strongly supported Turkey’s EU membership attempt.

My family are Greek Cypriot, so trying desperately not to be partisan; but have watched with more than a raised eyebrow over the years how Britain have slowly ‘accepted’ the illegal state of Northern Cyprus and even made it a lovely little holiday resort for our people.

I’m not sure if that stands up
Firstly support for Turkey’s close alignment with the EU dates back at least to Blair, if not before

Secondly, although not a Turkey expert, there is surely some evidence to suggest the prospect of EU membership, not matter how distant, acted as a carrot towards Erdogan and its withdrawal has partly led to his more erratic behaviour. And the reason Turkey has far less prospect of starting accession is because of the French position. You may have noticed the UK has been naval gazing rather than playing a role in foreign affairs.

Thirdly two geopolitical events that have had nothing to do with the UK have strengthened Erdogan. Trump’s election and his attempts to downgrade NATO have led to the US no longer being willing or able to constrain Turkey. The Syrian crisis and Turkey’s role in hosting two million refugees give him leverage over the EU.

The UK just isn’t a significant or credible international player at the moment.

[Oisin]

Originally Posted by cockneyrebel

I would be slightly careful with this. The media tends to just lump all Syrian rebels together. Turkey has a very uneasy relationship with the jihadist groups.

The FSA, sadly, are now a Turkish proxy and I think more likely to form the militias.

The fate of so many displaced young male Syrians is to end up as mercenaries in an endless war. Turkey is probably hiring any Sunni Arab that will take the pay. I have no doubt there are former Islamist militia amongst them. And I’m sure there’s plenty of people who have fought for Al-Nursra and the SDF as the career options aren’t that great when you’ve been ethically cleansed and live in a war zone.

[west country boy]

Originally Posted by Oisin

...the UK has been naval gazing...

[cockneyrebel]

Originally Posted by Oisin

The fate of so many displaced young male Syrians is to end up as mercenaries in an endless war. Turkey is probably hiring any Sunni Arab that will take the pay. I have no doubt there are former Islamist militia amongst them. And I’m sure there’s plenty of people who have fought for Al-Nursra and the SDF as the career options aren’t that great when you’ve been ethically cleansed and live in a war zone.

Sadly a lot of truth in this.

I think the Syrian Revolution was like the Spanish civil war of our time. A mass outpouring for democracy and liberty, and the FSA, albeit in a flawed way, represented this for a time.

Obviously the progressive forces in Spain were more left wing, but both were crushed by fascism (Assad and Franco), and in both cases international powers either stood by and let it happen or actively took part in the oppression and counter revolution (Russia/Iran and Germany/Italy, and the USSR in a different way, but still totally reactionary).

[dogstar721]

Given its a civil war, there will be assorted militia on pretty much every side, usually either drawn from religious or political divides.

Given its Syria and the middle east, I'd imagine that just about every faction has at least one or two Islamist militias.

Its important to remember that not all Islamist Militias are the same (a fair part of the Kurdish forces are probably armed Muslim militias).

[weltklasse]

the collapse of any viable American strategy has been breathtakingly rapid. The USA have stuffed the kurds in the 70's via a vis Iran in the 80's and 90's vis a vis Iraq and now in Syria. Now with the USA withdrawal its no Surprise that Russia is looking to take advantage of the vacuum.

[Spindle]

Originally Posted by cockneyrebel

Sadly a lot of truth in this.

I think the Syrian Revolution was like the Spanish civil war of our time. A mass outpouring for democracy and liberty, and the FSA, albeit in a flawed way, represented this for a time.

Obviously the progressive forces in Spain were more left wing, but both were crushed by fascism (Assad and Franco), and in both cases international powers either stood by and let it happen or actively took part in the oppression and counter revolution (Russia/Iran and Germany/Italy, and the USSR in a different way, but still totally reactionary).

And both of those superpowers used those wars as a test and training ground for their newest equipment

[wedgetail]

Originally Posted by cockneyrebel

Sadly a lot of truth in this.

I think the Syrian Revolution was like the Spanish civil war of our time. A mass outpouring for democracy and liberty, and the FSA, albeit in a flawed way, represented this for a time.

Obviously the progressive forces in Spain were more left wing, but both were crushed by fascism (Assad and Franco), and in both cases international powers either stood by and let it happen or actively took part in the oppression and counter revolution (Russia/Iran and Germany/Italy, and the USSR in a different way, but still totally reactionary).

The opposition to the Assad regime has been largely Sunni extremist from the start. Democratic forces in Syria have never been anything but minor players. This is the dirtiest war in my lifetime as there is no significant "good" side apart from the Kurds.

[Oisin]

The UK's lack of a position is staggering. Either
Raab out of his depth
UK can't annoy Turkey because of Brexit
UK can't annoy Trump because of Brexit
UK Government only focussed on Brexit
All of the above

[Aki Aki Aki]

Raab is a dummy, as knowledgable with foreign affairs as he was as Brexit secretary.

[cockneyrebel]

Originally Posted by wedgetail

The opposition to the Assad regime has been largely Sunni extremist from the start. Democratic forces in Syria have never been anything but minor players. This is the dirtiest war in my lifetime as there is no significant "good" side apart from the Kurds.

This is just totally false. The biggest force by far at the start was the FSA. They were anything but Sunni extremists. Read the declaration which they stood on which I linked to earlier.

There has been lots of this ignorant information put out, including, sadly, by Corbyn and McDonnell.

The FSA were crushed by Assad, who not only initially left ISIS alone but actually released jihadists from his jails. He did this so he could paint the opposition as all jihadist extremists while he turned all his guns on the FSA. Even that didn’t work as the Syrian army was totally depleted (and still is today). It took a huge intervention from Russia’s airforce, and Iranian and Hezbollah militias to turn it around.

They are now a shadow of their former self and a Turkish proxy. Who knows what would have happened if the YPG had aligned themselves with the FSA and not Assad. It proved to be at a terrible cost to them both.

[Timbo]

ITV News...."Trump is the arsonist who is now playing firefighter" Too fackin right, what a tosser that bloke is

[Oisin]

Originally Posted by wedgetail

The opposition to the Assad regime has been largely Sunni extremist from the start. Democratic forces in Syria have never been anything but minor players. This is the dirtiest war in my lifetime as there is no significant "good" side apart from the Kurds.

I’m not a Syrian expert but I have lived in the Middle East 13 years and my impression from talking to Syrians before and after the war is that this is incorrect. Of course the sort of Syrian you meet down the pub in Dubai isn’t an Islamist but it’s hard not to think that just as in Iraq it was the civil war that radicalized people rather than radicalization that led to the civil war.

Syria suffered massively from the establishment of an Islamist haven in Iraq. The biggest single reason for the explosion of Islamic terrorism is the American led invasion of Iraq to defeat Islamic terrorism. That ended up turning two largely secular countries into hotbeds of Islamic extremism.

[Oisin]

I knew there would have to be Kurds who fought the Nazis in WWII. Iraqis fought
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[Ifill Over]

I have just returned from my 11th consecutive year of holidaying in Turkey. In that time I have made many friends, both Turkish and Kurds. None of whom support Erdogan. Though I have always had an element of respect for Erdogan, there has been a continual improvement over those years. He survived a coup and stopped the run by speculators on the Lira in the past year.

I do not think I will be returning, nothing to do with my safety. Just what I am seeing play out in Syria. I would be a hypocrite to return. With social media, it does not take much to find some appalling images of what is happening, as always reliability is always questionable:-

1. Civilians including Innocent children are being killed, injured and others orphaned
2. Images of ISIS fighters celebrating alongside Turkish troops.
3. Turkey appears to be safe passage for ISIS fighters and associates (Refuges).
4. Turkey is attacking areas outside their proposed exclusion zone.

I agree Trump has messed up here removing the 50 or so troops. Responsibility for Erdogan's action lies with himself and not Trump. Without a doubt, Erdogan is showing his true colours, he has dressed this up as a crusade to rid Syria of terrorist when it is genocide. I accept there are atrocities carried out by the Kurds in Turkey, which is similar to the actions of the IRA in mainland UK. Trying to wipe out a nation due to the actions of a few is not the answer.

[dogstar721]

Originally Posted by wedgetail

The opposition to the Assad regime has been largely Sunni extremist from the start. Democratic forces in Syria have never been anything but minor players. This is the dirtiest war in my lifetime as there is no significant "good" side apart from the Kurds.

There are never really good sides in civil wars, even when the UN occassionally gets to send in peace keepers. There are those whos autrocities tend to be more extreme than others. I would be suprised if the Kurdish SDF weren't responsible for some truely horrific 'war crimes'.

Civil wars generally are genocidal / sectarian conflicts in which the objective tends to be an extermination of the enemy (with no real difference between civilian and military)

In fairness though Assad and IS do particually stand out.

[cockneyrebel]

Originally Posted by dogstar721

There are never really good sides in civil wars, even when the UN occassionally gets to send in peace keepers. There are those whos autrocities tend to be more extreme than others. I would be suprised if the Kurdish SDF weren't responsible for some truely horrific 'war crimes'.

Civil wars generally are genocidal / sectarian conflicts in which the objective tends to be an extermination of the enemy (with no real difference between civilian and military)

In fairness though Assad and IS do particually stand out.

Most reports say Assad is responsible for the big majority of the war crimes, torture and rape. He controls vast prisons that carry that out.

[wedgetail]

Originally Posted by Oisin

I’m not a Syrian expert but I have lived in the Middle East 13 years and my impression from talking to Syrians before and after the war is that this is incorrect. Of course the sort of Syrian you meet down the pub in Dubai isn’t an Islamist but it’s hard not to think that just as in Iraq it was the civil war that radicalized people rather than radicalization that led to the civil war.

Syria suffered massively from the establishment of an Islamist haven in Iraq. The biggest single reason for the explosion of Islamic terrorism is the American led invasion of Iraq to defeat Islamic terrorism. That ended up turning two largely secular countries into hotbeds of Islamic extremism.

I am not saying that there is not an open and democratic strand in Syria, It is hard believe now but that is where the Baathist movement sprang from. My point is that conservative religious forces have always been more powerful and likely to prevail particularly with extremist external support. As an analogy look at what happened to the secular and socialist opposition to the Shah in Iran even though the Iranian progressive forces had a much larger base.

[dogstar721]

Originally Posted by cockneyrebel

Most reports say Assad is responsible for the big majority of the war crimes, torture and rape. He controls vast prisons that carry that out.

Reports tend to be focused on what the media position tends to be. I don't doubt its the case, but when we talk about war crimes, we do tend to talk about the ones that interest us the most (ie we rarely talk about war crimes committed by the allies during WWII - for example the might 101st Airborne lost more troops due to rape convictions than from enemy fire following the Normandy landings).

Problem with war crimes is that it cannot be reduced to a well 'x' was worse than 'y'.

For example, the UN in September accused SDF of levelling entire villages.

What tends to happen is that reporting gets phrased differently. The 'evil side' bomb civilians, where as the 'good guys' blame it on human shields.

The nature of civil war is that it is brutal, genocidal and horrific even by the standards of war. During the Yugoslavian conflict, all sides were committing autrocities, the Serbians, the Croats and the Bosnians. The Serbian crimes were largely more significant because at the time they were winning.

The SDF probably aren't as bad as Assads regime, but I suspect they're not anywhere near a definition of acceptable either.