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  #321  
Old 27-06-2010, 10:29 AM
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Tennis Tournament Betting Update

Profits to date - 1

3rd Round Matches - Roddick 4.78 matched @1.23 giving 5.88 going onto next match

Soderling - Went for a better price and with him serving and winning first set, price never got matched.so still have 5.27 to invest. Danger that I might not get the lay money back!
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  #322  
Old 28-06-2010, 11:57 AM
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Out and about on Saturday so no bets ...Sunday games now make it 5 in a row with a small profit....none of these winings are large its just a consistent ticking of a few pence on a 2 or 4 max stake. The areas where I am occasionally vunerable is placing back and lay bets in play I use this sometimes to spread potential winnings to green screen any result . I need to check I think I can turn off the confirm screen on and notice BETFAIR will take a few seconds before the bet is placed may be possible to speed it up a little.
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  #323  
Old 28-06-2010, 12:09 PM
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Nice one, is good fun

Am just playing a bit with my bank now though still being quite conservative, off on my hols in a couple of weeks so need to be careful not to blow my spending money.

Happy to have some world cup / tennis matches where I have no real fancy and trade them rather than lump on a result. Have a free 7 on portugal winning, should have been greedy and it would have been a free 21, backed them at 1.5 for 350, laid off at 1.48 but it went into 1.43 almost straight after. Have also had a straight bet on the overs in that game, the matches seem to be a lot more open now and all it takes is an early goal and I can lay off my stake

Backed Brazil in that game at 1.58 but price has drifted to 1.60, hopefully it'll come in to 1.55ish before the off
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  #324  
Old 28-06-2010, 09:04 PM
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Tennis Tournament Betting Update

Profits to date - 1+ 1 = 2 as Roddick has just got knocked out

4th Round Matches - Soderling 5.27 matched @1.17 giving 6.13 going onto next match. Should get a decent price as he faces Nadal. Need to get Soderling up to 110 as that is what the original lay will cost me.
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  #325  
Old 28-06-2010, 10:56 PM
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The run of green screens keep ticking over that is now 6 in a row though small only 1% of the original bank tonight, However as Brazil were the favourites and the result left no room to trade Chile. Currently backing both sides to win a long odd outsider traded down to spread the bet as with Chile tonight. Let the winnings ride on Brazil and traded the draw at 1.05 lots of money at 1.04 over 1 million at one point tonight, Sometimes increase stake on the favourite to cover orignal stake on two evenly matched sides. The vunerability is to a 0-0 draw. THe plan but I have not put it into action is to trade out the stake money if a game is heading that way, Fortunatly there has been none of those recently

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  #326  
Old 29-06-2010, 08:29 PM
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Avoided the Paraquay games as I was at work...tried laying the draw at a risk of 4.50 tonight waited until the second half and started to trade the risk out..but kept both sides at green..had traded down to a 2.75 risk on draw and Spain scored traded out Spain for another all green with a 1% win on the orignal bank now 7 wins in a row...
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  #327  
Old 29-06-2010, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by N Herts Eagle
Avoided the Paraquay games as I was at work...tried laying the draw at a risk of 4.50 tonight waited until the second half and started to trade the risk out..but kept both sides at green..had traded down to a 2.75 risk on draw and Spain scored traded out Spain for another all green with a 1% win on the orignal bank now 7 wins in a row...
NHE I'm not sure I completly understand your strategy. Are you backing the draw then laying it for slightly less a few moments later? If you are laying the draw initially and then backing it when a team scores aren't you employing a strategy that will win a few pence 9 times out of ten but could lose a few quid the other time?
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  #328  
Old 30-06-2010, 09:15 AM
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Herts Eagle..remember I am only into this at the moment to make a few pence a 1% tick each game is good enough..its more about winning a small amount for little risk.

The process is about having a bet on each side this is easily sorted by a lay bet on the draw or by taking the odds on offer for both sides though you may need to manipulate a little with back and lay bets to even the potential winnings. This is important when you have a low priiced favourite you need enough winnings to lay off the bet if the favourite scores. I have then sat back watched the game if either side scores then I will lay off the winnings to turn the screen green....I know I can take more make more by letting the bet ride but its all about taking low risk.
There is a vunerability in the system the 0-0 draw at sometime you have to take a view that this is a possibility and lower the potential loss the back and lay method means that you are not risking much more than the original stake if a side scores when you backing the draw the potential loss is not 4 the winning make it a lot smaller. If you lay the draw then you can manipulate by lowering the lay stake (back at 3 lay at 2) by doing this last night I had a risk of 2.75....from the original 4.70 when Spain scored the potential winning on Spain and Portugal had been reduced to 87p and I laid to a 26p win once Spain had scored and the market settled.
However I accept I might be missing something if I am please let me know... currently I am happy to use the system next season with a larger bank and on a Saturday over a number of games
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  #329  
Old 30-06-2010, 11:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N Herts Eagle
Herts Eagle..remember I am only into this at the moment to make a few pence a 1% tick each game is good enough..its more about winning a small amount for little risk.

The process is about having a bet on each side this is easily sorted by a lay bet on the draw or by taking the odds on offer for both sides though you may need to manipulate a little with back and lay bets to even the potential winnings. This is important when you have a low priiced favourite you need enough winnings to lay off the bet if the favourite scores. I have then sat back watched the game if either side scores then I will lay off the winnings to turn the screen green....I know I can take more make more by letting the bet ride but its all about taking low risk.
There is a vunerability in the system the 0-0 draw at sometime you have to take a view that this is a possibility and lower the potential loss the back and lay method means that you are not risking much more than the original stake if a side scores when you backing the draw the potential loss is not 4 the winning make it a lot smaller. If you lay the draw then you can manipulate by lowering the lay stake (back at 3 lay at 2) by doing this last night I had a risk of 2.75....from the original 4.70 when Spain scored the potential winning on Spain and Portugal had been reduced to 87p and I laid to a 26p win once Spain had scored and the market settled.
However I accept I might be missing something if I am please let me know... currently I am happy to use the system next season with a larger bank and on a Saturday over a number of games
Thanks for the reply and I do understand that you are only aiming to make a few pence each game.I am doing exactly the same with my Wimbledon tournament winner.

It sounds like you are manipulating the draw during in-play. If at some stage you decide you have to "red up" [as there have been no goals]and back the draw with the aim of laying it later, what happens if one of the sides scores before you have made the lay?

In what way is your strategy different to laying say a 0-0 for a few pence or backing the 0-0 before the game and then laying it after 15 minutes?

Would your system still work if there was a strong favourite and the underdog scored first [the draw price would probably fall]

Sorry if it appears that I'm going on a bit but I want to make sure I understand what you are doing.
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  #330  
Old 30-06-2010, 12:47 PM
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Herts its ok I prefer to talk this through...I did notice your Tennis bet and I am following the result.....The worst possible result for you is that the lay bet exposure is not matched by the winnings. I think that could be covered by a bit of clever betting on the last game

What I am aiming at is to win small on any result if possible..the manipulation of the draw is only if a game looks like ending 0-0 the stats on that in the Premiership is about 1 in 10 games....

The view I have taken is that 90% of games have at least one goal therefore if you trade matches correctly with enough games you should be able to wipe any loss on the 0-0 result and make a profit particularly if you can minimise the potential loss

The general plan is to have at the start of the game a screen with two greens ie I have backed both teams to win.

Depending on the odds on offer depends on how much is staked on the teams and how its been achieved. If you watch the market in the World Cup if any teams score the odds as you would expect fall dramatically. At that point I will lay the winning bet to turn each potential result green.

The 0-0 draw therefore is a problem I can either ignore it or attempt to mitigate the score. The options is a straight bet on 0-0 I am not winning enough to make this pratical. The approach I am taking is if the game is 0-0 in the second half at some point make a judgement as to what to do....so as per last night it is about small back and lay bets in play on the draw result its essential you use the draw as it reduces any potential loss if there is a goal scored whilst you are doing it.

Whilst the idea is to win everytime I have learnt occasionally whatever you do you will make a loss its about making that as small as possible at the lowest possible risk.

Large Favourites are an isssue and it very much depends on the odds and it will take a little patience the odds will in many cases mean you will not cover the bet for the outsider. The two ways to deal with this that I have found is to simply do a lay bet on the draw. It does not like last night expose you to too much risk and gives you a bigger potential win on the favourite at the expense of the outsider. Or ensure you back the outsider enough to enable a lay to the favourite to even up the odds a little. From what I have seen to date it really does depend on the odds which is the best way. Brazil for example was a manipulation on the Chile odds by the back and lay method. It is slightly more complex you have to ensure that the money you are winning on the outsider will cover the required lay whilst the odds on them will fall if they score they will not fall as much as the favourite its a learning process for me at the moment of what the two greens should look like I think I have it about right.

Laying 0-0 is a way but its the potential risk of the loss if 0-0 comes up which puts me off that. I have learnt the hard way trading 0-0 or goals scored whilst in play can cost you the stake.
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  #331  
Old 30-06-2010, 02:37 PM
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Quote:
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Whilst the idea is to win everytime I have learnt occasionally whatever you do you will make a loss its about making that as small as possible at the lowest possible risk.
Thanks N Herts I think I understand a lot better now. I would endorse what you have said above as this is the hardest thing to do for a lot of traders/punters. If you can avoid losing even moderate amounts then you will almost certainly make money.

As for my wimbledon strategy I could be in trouble Soderling is winning and Federer is out meaning the odds in indivual matches won't be as good as they would have been.
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  #332  
Old 01-07-2010, 02:59 PM
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Tennis Tournament Betting Update

Profits to date - 1+ 1 +1 = 3 as now Soderling has got knocked out.

So we reach the end of the first test with no strong conclusions but at least I have made 3 from the test.

What have I learnt?

1. Ideally you need to know something about the sport you are trading on. I didn't do any research and picked 3 well priced "outsiders". The aim must be to pick someone who could win it or get to the final - unlikely though that is in Tennis.

2. Having an understanding of prices is vital. I didn't check the market and may have been able to lay all 3 of the players I selected for smaller odds by getting in earlier.

3. In tennis it may be better to pick an outsider who has a hard draw as the prices to win each game may be better. On the other hand you probably don't want to pick someone who meets the number 1 seed early on as victory will reduce their odds in subsquent games.

4. An understanding of value odds will help when determining when putting up a back price. In one of Soderling's matches I pitched it too high. It was then too late to adjust when he had served first and won the first set. It could help if you knew who was serving first as they tend to be slightly shorter than they may have been.


I wonder what would have happened if I had done this in the Women's tournament?
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  #333  
Old 02-07-2010, 08:30 PM
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8 in a row missed Brazil so was on the Ghana game tonight...I would say that the fiasco with my Internet helped but somehow managed to sort it all out and ended up all green for about 1 on any result though this was helped by the Internet failure meaning I missed a back bet I was in the middle off....but I will take it
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  #334  
Old 03-07-2010, 08:46 PM
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9 in a row was late to the German game so the first goal had been scored left the game alone..so to Spain tonight a straight a lay on the draw....left the bet running through the game at the potential loss of 7..the Sapinish goal saved me from a heavy loss but laid some of the winnigs to cover a potential draw at the end and ended up with 1.32..thats means a 36% profit on the bank
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Old 03-07-2010, 09:13 PM
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1. Ideally you need to know something about the sport you are trading on. I didn't do any research and picked 3 well priced "outsiders". The aim must be to pick someone who could win it or get to the final - unlikely though that is in Tennis.
I don't bet much on tennis, and I don't 'trade' in the way that you and NH Eagle appear to. At the moment, I am trying to concentrate on football and identify value opportunities there.

But one thing I have learned from betting on sports in general is to ask myself the question - could X beat Y. In tennis, some players have a history of failing against low-rated opponents - in women's tennis for example, Dinara Safina and Venus Williams are examples. But Serena Williams and Justine Henin rarely lose. In boxing I remember Tyson v Holyfield - no one thought Holyfield could win, he was 20/1 I think, but he was a former world champion.

I would think you could improve your returns by specialising in a relatively unknown area - say Junior Tennis or small tournaments with lesser known players for example. There are also lots of people on the betting boards on this site who seem to follow tennis and could give views on particular matches or players.
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Old 04-07-2010, 09:38 AM
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There are also lots of people on the betting boards on this site who seem to follow tennis and could give views on particular matches or players.
What I mean is, if you ask

"Is Player G good value at 5/1 to beat Player C?"

on the Betting Thread, you may get some useful informed replies
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Old 04-07-2010, 02:10 PM
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Not been trading a lot recently hence lack of posts on here, but might have found another good trading option.

Woke up this morning thinking of having a small bet on Berdych (looking like a bad thought!!), saw that Rafa was 1.36 to back, 1.37 to lay so before laying I thought I would look at the odds for winning the title rather than winning the match (different market but clearly the same bet as there was only the one game left), there Rafa was 1.35 to back and 1.36 to lay. There was not much money at all there to back at 1.35.

My theory is that the market which has the 'correct' prices is the match market. There was 2.3m matched in both markets but clearly the title market has been going for two weeks. Reason for the different prices is probably people protecting positions and generally that market while it might be different to the match market will tend to correct itself and the price shift towards the same prices as the match market, well that was my theory which felt pretty sound at the time, also helped that the match prices looked very solid with at least 150,000 on each side indicating it was unlikely to change any time soon.

Tried to lay around 700 at 1.35 (costing about 260) and got matched pretty much straight away, got the back bet matched at 1.36 pretty quickly, managed to do that a couple of times quite easily. Then the title market went to the same as the match market so thought that was that. About an hour later the match market moved to 1.37-1.38 (again looking quite solid) but the title market still showed as 1.36.1.37. In fact there was a lot more to lay at 1.37 (about 20k) which indicated it wouldn't shift, however going with the theory I laid 1.37 for about 700 again and put in a request to back at 1.38 which only had a few hundred pounds there at the time. Sure enough that 20k was gobbled up and the 1.38 matched almost straight after. So I ended up having +20p on Rafa and +70 on Berdych which isn't bad at all from a bank of 260 (hedged a few world cup bets on my account, gambled a bit and have put quite a bit on the Tour hence not as much as earlier in this thread!!)

I think the important thing is for the main market to be stable, clearly you leave yourself open to any price changes in the main market quickly being repeated in this market. Feel I'm pretty good at seeing what is likely to happen to the match market (weight of money) so can bet in a way that any drifts or shortenings would work in my favour.

Which brings me onto my main hope, the outright world cup market, should be the same liquidity as Wimbledon final (if not better) and it'll be there for 4 days to hopefully do the same as the above with, if I can make 18 (well I could have taken that in a morning but decided to gamble with it instead) then hopefully could make 3 figures over the course of 4 days. Only problem (just occurred to me now!!) is the fact there is the draw but I'm expecting there to be a 'lift the trophy' market as well as the outright, pretty sure there should be. Guess the question then is which market will tend towards which, hmm might need to think a bit more.

Any thoughts from anyone on the above? Could be something to do on other tournaments (weekly tennis / snooker / darts, basically any knockout comp with 2 players / teams)

Just to note I've put up the Nadal prices but when backing and laying I would often do it on the Berdych side at 3.75 or 3.8 depending on where the gaps were or where I would get matched quickest, thought it simpler and less confusing to use Rafas prices and those were the ones I used most often.

My longest post ever I suspect....
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Old 04-07-2010, 03:49 PM
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Finbar there is a to Qualify Market on the semi final not a match bet it would take out the draw.

There is a better market for each game there is a to qualify and there is a seperate to reach final market just hit my bank on Uruguay

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Old 04-07-2010, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Louis
What I mean is, if you ask

"Is Player G good value at 5/1 to beat Player C?"

on the Betting Thread, you may get some useful informed replies
Loius - not a bad idea but what i like to hear is why they think that player G is a good bet. They may come up with a reason you hadn't thought of. On the other hand it may be based on a reason you had already factored in.

Also what I would be after is not so much who is fancied[that will be obvious from the price] but is this a good price and if not what should it be? Probably requires an expert in that sport.
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Old 04-07-2010, 04:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar

Woke up this morning thinking of having a small bet on Berdych (looking like a bad thought!!), saw that Rafa was 1.36 to back, 1.37 to lay so before laying I thought I would look at the odds for winning the title rather than winning the match (different market but clearly the same bet as there was only the one game left), there Rafa was 1.35 to back and 1.36 to lay. There was not much money at all there to back at 1.35.



Any thoughts from anyone on the above? Could be something to do on other tournaments (weekly tennis / snooker / darts, basically any knockout comp with 2 players / teams)
I spend a lot of time looking at market inconsistences, mainly when I haven't found any arbs worth having

Recently I have looked at the odds to "win a half" and whether it would be worth laying all combinations in which that team won a half in the HT/FT market. Unfortunately I have found them to be spot on. But I am not suprised you have found what you did. Another one is correct score 0-0 and "no goal" in the next goal market. Obviously if you trade on both then you could end up paying a lot more commission but that aside I would think there may be some mileage in it.
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