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  #341  
Old 04-07-2010, 05:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Which brings me onto my main hope, the outright world cup market, should be the same liquidity as Wimbledon final (if not better) and it'll be there for 4 days to hopefully do the same as the above with, if I can make 18 (well I could have taken that in a morning but decided to gamble with it instead) then hopefully could make 3 figures over the course of 4 days. Only problem (just occurred to me now!!) is the fact there is the draw but I'm expecting there to be a 'lift the trophy' market as well as the outright, pretty sure there should be. Guess the question then is which market will tend towards which, hmm might need to think a bit more.

Any thoughts from anyone on the above? Could be something to do on other tournaments (weekly tennis / snooker / darts, basically any knockout comp with 2 players / teams)
There will always be a slight difference on these markets in tennis due to the fact they would be settled differently if a player pulled out injured, before or during the match. Back Rafa in the MO market and if he pulls out before or during the first set then your bet would be void, back him in the winner market and you'd lose if he pulled out at any stage.

This isn't the case for the WC Final, though technically for any no. of reasons a team might not play, but factoring this in would be be negligible with the spreads used. There will be occassions when there is a slight difference in prices across the 2 markets but arb software and cross-matching will soon take care of that.
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  #342  
Old 04-07-2010, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Not been trading a lot recently hence lack of posts on here, but might have found another good trading option. So I ended up having +20p on Rafa and +70 on Berdych which isn't bad at all from a bank of 260 (hedged a few world cup bets on my account, gambled a bit and have put quite a bit on the Tour hence not as much as earlier in this thread!!)
Spend your 20p wisely! It took you a lot of effort to earn it.
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  #343  
Old 04-07-2010, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
what I would be after is not so much who is fancied [that will be obvious from the price] but is this a good price and if not what should it be? Probably requires an expert in that sport.
I don't know if they could be described as 'experts' but I know there are some keen followers of different sports here - if you want an opinion . For example, if I was thinking of betting on tennis, I might ask something like: "What odds should A be to beat B in XYZ tournament"?
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  #344  
Old 05-07-2010, 06:07 AM
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Originally Posted by James
Spend your 20p wisely! It took you a lot of effort to earn it.
Well if you call glancing at my phone every 15mins an effort

Of course now I think why didn't I just take the 18 or have it all on Rafa but guess it's all about variance and in theory should work out about the same in the long run. Was hoping Berdych might get his nose in front so I could trade but never got the chance of course

Andy, you're right in what you say but I would not be backing in one market and laying in another (commission would see to any profit there as the prices are so close) but just in the one market that was being driven by the other market so to speak

On a separate note surely Uruguay are overpriced at 14.5 (pretty sure you would be matched at 15.0), Holland are rightly favourites to beat them but seems far too long given how low scoring their next two games could be.

Also might be some merit in backing Spain to lay them back before kick off on Tuesday (as outcome of that game will affect their price). They are the same price as Germany to win it but favourites (only marginal) to win the match, surely the outright market will correct itself (though clearly if it does then Germany could drift)
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  #345  
Old 05-07-2010, 06:08 AM
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Just to note that both Spain and Germany are 3.15 to back, 3.2 to lay
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  #346  
Old 05-07-2010, 08:08 AM
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Depends on who wins and in what style but I think there is a very good chance the winner of tomorrow's semi will drift once the other finalist is decided. Think it is possible the market will wait till the winner of Spain / Germany before plunging, given they are both the same odds to win currently there shouldn't be much or any of a drift depending on which team wins, just the manner in which they win and then after that it's down to weight of money.

Of course if Holland win 6-0 or something then you can scrap the above
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  #347  
Old 05-07-2010, 11:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar

On a separate note surely Uruguay are overpriced at 14.5 (pretty sure you would be matched at 15.0), Holland are rightly favourites to beat them but seems far too long given how low scoring their next two games could be.
I was thinking of doing something similar to what I did in the Tennis - but the reverse. Back Uraquay to win the tournament then lay them to qualify. The reasoning is that if they get past the Dutch - no matter how they do it[apart from Holland having 2 players sent off perhaps] then their status will be boosted and they won't be seen as the rank outsiders they were. Futhermore they will have Suarez back. I have done the maths and providing they are no bigger than 3.5 in the final [to qualify!!! or win the tornament] then I should make either way. Any thoughts?
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  #348  
Old 05-07-2010, 12:32 PM
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I agree that their stock will rise but so will that of the winner of the 2nd semi final, as in my post above I would lay them before the 2nd semi if they win.

So if you back them at 15.0 for 10 (for example) then you are actually on at 14.3 after commission

Lay them to qualify from the semi at 3.9 for 15 for a liabilty of 43.50

They lose their semi = 5 profit

They win and you have +100 on Urugay and -25 on them if they lose

I reckon spain/germany would then be 1.33 for the title, surely not shorter than that

80 at 1.33 on Spain = 1.30 profit for a spain/ger win or 20 profit for a Uruguay win
Only risk is that Spain or Germany are shorter than 1.25 when you would then have to get out for very small loss but I reckon Uruguay would be somewhere between 3.0 and 4.0 before the final

My maths above sound? Looks like a goer to me, might dabble for bigger stakes :-)

I'll have either Holland (13.0) or Uruguay (15.0) as a single in the final anyway so might hedge it and do the above for zero profit on Uruguay and green on Germany / Spain

Really can't see much of a downside, can't see Uruguay being bigger than 5.0 if they beat Holland....
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  #349  
Old 05-07-2010, 12:36 PM
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Actually with my current betfair balance of 260 I couldn't do it for that big a stakes, probably about 6 times the below example, which still isn't too bad actually

(assuming my numbers above are right)
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  #350  
Old 05-07-2010, 12:38 PM
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Actually it would only be about 4 times as I would have 100 tied up in the win market leaving only 160 to lay in the qualify market.

Might have to empty my PP account and put in another 100 (probably a good idea anyway as I would only fritter it away on the Tour de France otherwise!!)
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  #351  
Old 05-07-2010, 01:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
I agree that their stock will rise but so will that of the winner of the 2nd semi final, as in my post above I would lay them before the 2nd semi if they win.

So if you back them at 15.0 for 10 (for example) then you are actually on at 14.3 after commission

Lay them to qualify from the semi at 3.9 for 15 for a liabilty of 43.50

They lose their semi = 5 profit

They win and you have +100 on Urugay and -25 on them if they lose

I reckon spain/germany would then be 1.33 for the title, surely not shorter than that

80 at 1.33 on Spain = 1.30 profit for a spain/ger win or 20 profit for a Uruguay win
Only risk is that Spain or Germany are shorter than 1.25 when you would then have to get out for very small loss but I reckon Uruguay would be somewhere between 3.0 and 4.0 before the final

My maths above sound? Looks like a goer to me, might dabble for bigger stakes :-)

I'll have either Holland (13.0) or Uruguay (15.0) as a single in the final anyway so might hedge it and do the above for zero profit on Uruguay and green on Germany / Spain

Really can't see much of a downside, can't see Uruguay being bigger than 5.0 if they beat Holland....
Looks ok to me.I think Uruguay will be lower than 5.0, especially if you get in early. Just look at the range of prices that have been backed on them to qualify for the final [3.15 to 4.3, with quite a lot at 3.5]. I'm going for it - will report back on my success or failure!
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  #352  
Old 05-07-2010, 01:58 PM
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Hmm, just gone over my sums again and it's not quite as good as I thought

Back Uruguay at 15.0 for 80 (am already matched for 100 so can just lay back 20 if I like)

Lay them at 3.9 for 90 to not qualify, costing 261 (matched for half that so far)

Profit of 5.50 after commission if they lose tomorrow

All then depends what price they are, I reckon 4.0 in which case I need to recoup 341 (80 + 261) before I'm breaking even

Lay Uruguay at 4.0 for 360 guarantees 18 profit for a Spain / Germany win and a 38 profit if Uruguay win

If bigger than 4.3 then we're into loss territory, clearly anything less than 4.0 and it's profit country.

Sound correct? Quite small numbers but still an interesting experiment
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  #353  
Old 05-07-2010, 03:17 PM
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Well I got it all matched at 3.9 and 15.0 so now sit back and hopefully make a few quid
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  #354  
Old 05-07-2010, 03:42 PM
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I'm still waiting for my 15 request to be matched
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  #355  
Old 05-07-2010, 03:49 PM
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I think the good thing for you is that if you can't get matched at 15.0 then you can probably lay at lower than 3.9...probably
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  #356  
Old 05-07-2010, 03:59 PM
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I'm still waiting for my 15 request to be matched
not any more you're not
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Old 05-07-2010, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
not any more you're not
Yeay
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Old 06-07-2010, 05:30 AM
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I've now been matched on both 100 on Uruguay to win @ 15.0 and 112 laid @3.9 to give 7.69 profit if they lose.

Just noticed that the Uruquay price to qualify has dropped to 3.85. I think I will try for seconds, but will need to get matched on the winners market first.
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Last edited by herts_palace; 06-07-2010 at 05:37 AM.
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Old 06-07-2010, 08:40 AM
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Finbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mineFinbar : if all you've got to do today is find peace of mind, come round, you can take a piece of mine
Spain favourites to qualify from tomorrow's semifinal yet Germany have just edged favouritism in the outright market, odd!! Can only imagine they are seen as being more likely to dispose of Holland / Uruguay in the final should they win. That or they're a massive lay... My funds all tied up but I would be tempted to try to back Spain at 3.2 for the title if they weren't, reckon they'll go off a tick or two shorter than that
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Old 06-07-2010, 09:00 AM
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How can I hedge my bets?
I've got a ton on Spain at 5-1
3 quid on holland at 14
3 quid on Germany at 15
And a fiver on uraguay to win 2day at 6
Only got 16quid to mess around with
Shall I just put fiver on each of the others bar Spain to win cup? Thnx in advance ur tips have been great
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