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  #381  
Old 07-07-2010, 08:22 AM
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Spain now 1.91-1.92 to qualify, match odds have moved in their favour as well and still they are just about the same odds to win the whole thing...

Will Germany drift, Spain come in or neither...

I suspect Germany might drift so will try to lay them at 3.35 for 168, worst case scenario I can see is it drifts before I'm matched or it's matched and I can get out for free, really don't see them hitting 3.3 when they're drifting in the match odds, 10k in front of me which in this kind of market shouldn't take long fingers crossed
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  #382  
Old 07-07-2010, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Will Germany drift, Spain come in or neither...

I suspect Germany might drift
Wrong! Spain just came in Mind you I would have tried to get matched at 3.35 and it's probably I wouldn't have before the drop in price. Holland not moved so still a good chance Germany will drift (hopefully after I'm matched as I'm still not) but I definitely chose the wrong one!
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  #383  
Old 07-07-2010, 09:19 AM
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No Germany drifted 2k before being matched, oh well important thing was to get the best price and be certain not to lose. Holland also on the drift now and Spain price continues to come in.

Called it right but not for any profit
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  #384  
Old 07-07-2010, 09:52 AM
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No Access to Betfiar at work but there are three markets now offering the same thing

1) Nominate Finalists
2) To Qualify for the Final
3) To Qualify (Match)

Watching last night there are opportunities those these were snapped up quickly might be less hetic this morning....
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  #385  
Old 07-07-2010, 10:34 AM
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Originally Posted by N Herts Eagle
No Access to Betfiar at work but there are three markets now offering the same thing

1) Nominate Finalists
2) To Qualify for the Final
3) To Qualify (Match)

Watching last night there are opportunities those these were snapped up quickly might be less hetic this morning....
Cheers for that, just the kind of market I was talking about over the weekend, didn't occurr to me there would be this kind of thing before the final.

Market 3) is clearly the main market, seems to be quite settled on 1.89-1.90 so have tried to get matched at 1.91 for the other two markets and make a few quid, 160 matched so far
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  #386  
Old 07-07-2010, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Cheers for that, just the kind of market I was talking about over the weekend, didn't occurr to me there would be this kind of thing before the final.

Market 3) is clearly the main market, seems to be quite settled on 1.89-1.90 so have tried to get matched at 1.91 for the other two markets and make a few quid, 160 matched so far
I will claim a drink sometime...:
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  #387  
Old 07-07-2010, 11:59 AM
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Well I've got all 3.50 of my green on Spain to qualify so if they do then don't expect champagne or anything...
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  #388  
Old 07-07-2010, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Louis
Can't help admire the way you guys do it - I try to make money from betting too, but in a different way. Several of you appear to make small regular money from trading back/lay/arbitrage positions. Seems to be pretty small amounts, but of course if you keep doing it and minimise the downside, your bank will just keep growing

My strategy is to look for value bet opportunities, where the odds are much better than they should be. I've found I can sometimes do this, and, as far as I can see, this method potentially delivers much bigger returns than the trading that most of you describe. I also don't think I have the mathematical discipline and patience for trading.

I think my biggest problem though is putting far too many different bets on, which reduces any profit considerably . It usually works best for me when I have just a few well-researched value bets.
For me its just about Research at the moment finding a system that breaks a little above even and one that I am confident I know what I am doing. The World Cup was an ideal way to work on the football market and I will play the system on any match I am watching which has in game betting.

Whilst I am happy with the results it still needs fine tuning and I need to be more aware of opportunities. I have missed chances to back and lay to make more money. I was lucky in the Spain game the other day.

The World Cup started out as a way to discover a methodolgy to use when I retire to keep the mind active. Whilst I know Finbar plays the +/- goals market it did not work for me I took about a 4 loss overall in that market I need to investigate it better no doubt.

After tonight I will take the all the winnings made above the bank hopefully still have enough to either buy a few beers or a cheap bottle of Whiskey and just chill sit back and watch the World Cup Final.

Then on Monday consider the next move I have learnt stay structured its easy to lose focus and have a wild bet here and there (silly things like England to beat Algeria cost me 3 or England to score in the game another 2 wasted ) Not to chase a loss minimise if you can but sometimes accept its not your day.

I am so happy with 10 in a row but that means in the next 10 games I am more than likely to be hit twice with a 0-0 which will mean if my averages are about right I make only 10% overall on the next ten games not the 40% this time put another way 2.50 is not a lot for the effort invested.

I do know there are enough live games to make this work once the season starts around the World there are games most days Some being shown only on the betting sites. Is there enough liquidity in these markets it is important within the World Cup a clear pattern of the fall in odds based on starting odds and time of the first goal is emerging will this hold true in a market with less money.

So is it time to take the next step and up the stake try and make a bit more money I will let you know once the new season starts.

As for the 25 in the bank it will be time to look at how the Golf market works ....British Open here I come...!!!

Last edited by N Herts Eagle; 07-07-2010 at 12:14 PM.
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  #389  
Old 07-07-2010, 12:14 PM
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Yep sounds sensible though not quite sure how you're strategy differs to just laying the 0-0!

Just been matched at 1.92 on Spain in the nominate finalists market for 300, should be able to turn that into another 6 green on spain to qualify
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  #390  
Old 07-07-2010, 12:32 PM
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That sounds too good to be true as Spain are going to be about 1.67 if they go through...
Don't think that they will that short as that would make Holland 2.5. I hope you're right though and that they go through.
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  #391  
Old 07-07-2010, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
Have put in a request to lay Spain @1.95 in the To Qualify market for 200 risking a loss and win of 190[after commission].Then backed them to win the cup @3.35 for 185. So if they go out tomorrow I make 5 - otherwise I should be able to make money provided they are less than about 1.95 to win the thing in the final.
Now matched - actually was matched last night since then the price has fallen to 1.89!!!
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  #392  
Old 07-07-2010, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
Don't think that they will that short as that would make Holland 2.5. I hope you're right though and that they go through.
well Holland were 2.5 overnight but have now drifted to 2.58 which means Spain would be nearer 1.63 if they held their price but as Spain are favs they would likely drift to 2.7 if the spanish won I'm guessing

Still not convinced your maths adds up but happy with my qualifying market for now :-)
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  #393  
Old 07-07-2010, 01:25 PM
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Don't suppose you did it with Stan James did you? Would have been a winner I think

Andy, did that injury time goal cost you?
i wish............
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  #394  
Old 07-07-2010, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
well Holland were 2.5 overnight but have now drifted to 2.58 which means Spain would be nearer 1.63 if they held their price but as Spain are favs they would likely drift to 2.7 if the spanish won I'm guessing

Still not convinced your maths adds up but happy with my qualifying market for now :-)
Ok fair enough on the Holland price but I expect it to drop regardless on who qualifies - that is just too high.

You are right on the maths - not sure where I went wrong but I will need a price of 1.61 on Spain [if they go through] to make a profit.
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  #395  
Old 07-07-2010, 01:46 PM
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Well I posted above that I thought whoever qualified would drift once the other finalist was decided but I agree that 2.6 seems very high on the dutch and it would take one of tonight's teams winning convincingly for that to stay there surely. Hence I haven't laid them.

Am now 14 green on Spain and 0 on Germany in the Nominate finalists market, cheers for that info N Herts, hopefully more to come

(so confusing to have two Herts eagles on this thread, not to mention unlikely!!)
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  #396  
Old 07-07-2010, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Well I posted above that I thought whoever qualified would drift once the other finalist was decided but I agree that 2.6 seems very high on the dutch and it would take one of tonight's teams winning convincingly for that to stay there surely. Hence I haven't laid them.

Am now 14 green on Spain and 0 on Germany in the Nominate finalists market, cheers for that info N Herts, hopefully more to come

(so confusing to have two Herts eagles on this thread, not to mention unlikely!!)
I know of NHE - who's the other one?
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  #397  
Old 07-07-2010, 02:39 PM
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Just found another one similar to the offer made by PP. Blue Square are offering you your money back on any correct score if any WC match finishes 0-0. Can currently back 1-0 Spain at 15/2 with BSQ and then lay at 8.8 maybe 8.6 on Betfair.If you lay 0-0 at 9.6 you can guarantee a profit whatever happens.

Maths below!

100 at 15/2 gives 750 profit

96.75 laid on 1-0 Spain at 8.8 gives 91.91[assuming 5% commission] or a loss of 754.65
10.65 laid on 0-0 at 9.6 gives 10.11 after commission or a loss of 91.59

So if it finishes at any score apart from 0-0 or 1-0 Spain you make 2.02.

If it finishes 0-0 you get your stake back win 96.75 [virtually no commission as you have lost on BF] and lose 91.59.

If it finishes 1-0 you win 750 with BSQ lose 754.65 on the lay of 1-0 but make 10.11 on the lay of 0-0.

Only a few quid I know but it it's probably more than I will make from the Who Qualifies market!

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  #398  
Old 07-07-2010, 02:57 PM
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Louis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLouis came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
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Originally Posted by N Herts Eagle
I am so happy with 10 in a row but that means in the next 10 games I am more than likely to be hit twice with a 0-0 which will mean if my averages are about right I make only 10% overall on the next ten games not the 40% this time put another way 2.50 is not a lot for the effort invested
Well if you can make somewhere between 10% and 40% on a regular basis, that sounds pretty good to me
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  #399  
Old 07-07-2010, 03:05 PM
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herts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietherts_palace came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Well I posted above that I thought whoever qualified would drift once the other finalist was decided but I agree that 2.6 seems very high on the dutch and it would take one of tonight's teams winning convincingly for that to stay there surely. Hence I haven't laid them.
Have now backed Holland at 2.6 for 100 with a view to laying at 2.52 or 2.54.
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Old 07-07-2010, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
(so confusing to have two Herts eagles on this thread, not to mention unlikely!!)
Don't listen to us then you know you should bet with your head not your hert.
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