Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

[Stellavista]

Originally Posted by Reps AJ

He was prosecuted and found guilty

So what's the difference between this spanner and the Labour MP for Peterborough?

[Sodermalm]

Originally Posted by Stellavista

So what's the difference between this spanner and the Labour MP for Peterborough?

It depends on the offence

[Stellavista]

Originally Posted by Sodermalm

It depends on the offence

So Fraud's ok, but perverting the course of justice isn't?

[Maz]

Originally Posted by Stellavista

So Fraud's ok, but perverting the course of justice isn't?

[Reps AJ]

And the Tories have selected Chris Davies to contest the byelection created after Chris Davies was recalled due to Chris Davies cheating his expenses and being convicted for it.

[Maz]

Expect a slaughter

[firesign]

Crazy decision - surely he can’t win?!!

[ebyeeckeagle]

Originally Posted by Reps AJ

And the Tories have selected Chris Davies to contest the byelection created after Chris Davies was recalled due to Chris Davies cheating his expenses and being convicted for it.

You are just making it up. This is a storyline from The Thick of It. Or is it Blackadder?

Seriously, it is amazing. I can't imagine that Tory Central in any other time wouldn't have had the nous and authority to kibosh it.

[Reps AJ]

Originally Posted by ebyeeckeagle

You are just making it up. This is a storyline from The Thick of It. Or is it Blackadder?

Seriously, it is amazing. I can't imagine that Tory Central in any other time wouldn't have had the nous and authority to kibosh it.

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[tasty_snacks]

What a gift to the Lib Dems that is.

[Spindle]

Originally Posted by firesign

Crazy decision - surely he can’t win?!!

Let's watch dogma at work

[bubbs11]

Lib Dem’s 1/12 to win tonight.

Tories out at 9-1.

[dogstar721]

Originally Posted by firesign

Crazy decision - surely he can’t win?!!

Presumably 20% of the eligible voters won't be voting for him. I'd imagine they want the vote to be really split...

[GTR]

Originally Posted by dogstar721

Presumably 20% of the eligible voters won't be voting for him. I'd imagine they want the vote to be really split...

I'm sure that was their hope but with the Greens and Plaid Cymru not putting up a candidate and advising supporters to vote Lib Dem it will be very uphill for the tories.

[dogstar721]

Originally Posted by GTR

I'm sure that was their hope but with the Greens and Plaid Cymru not putting up a candidate and advising supporters to vote Lib Dem it will be very uphill for the tories.

Wouldn't losing this seat reduce their majority to 1 or 2? Maybe its a sucide pact by Remainer Tories to undermine the fat controller

[tasty_snacks]

Originally Posted by GTR

I'm sure that was their hope but with the Greens and Plaid Cymru not putting up a candidate and advising supporters to vote Lib Dem it will be very uphill for the tories.

TBF, Plaid and the Greens (and Renew for that matter) not standing won't make a significant impact on the result. Only Plaid stood in 2017 and they got about 3% of the vote. The value in this alliance is the the signal it sends and the wheels it greases in terms of getting similar pacts working elsewhere. For that reason Plaid and Greens deserve huge credit are rightly being lauded by Jo Swinson, which bodes well for the future (though I envisage a potentially tricky situation in the PC/LD marginal of Ceredigion).

@dogstar - yes, the national significance is the potential reduction of the Tory majority. Bearing in mind the wafer thin margins by which Brexit votes are going through Parliament, this result cannot be underplayed. I have faith the Welsh will deliver.

[cockneyrebel]

This is getting very little publicity compared to Peterborough. I know that had the Brexit Party factor but given the tiny Tory majority, and BJ just getting in I thought it would get a bit more.

[west country boy]

Originally Posted by cockneyrebel

This is getting very little publicity compared to Peterborough. I know that had the Brexit Party factor but given the tiny Tory majority, and BJ just getting in I thought it would get a bit more.

I think (hope) it's because we're now in the "silly season" when a lot of journos are on holiday.

[Heb 7:4]

Originally Posted by bubbs11

Lib Dem’s 1/12 to win tonight.

Tories out at 9-1.

Not convinced it's that clear cut. Boris bounce, collapse of Brexit Party vote, etc.

[SE25 exile]

Originally Posted by Heb 7:4

Not convinced it's that clear cut. Boris bounce, collapse of Brexit Party vote, etc.

Boris has only gleaned around 7/10% back from the BP, who are retaining about 15%, presumably made up of old UKIP and hard Brexit Tory voters.

Boris has not had a good week in Wales either, so it looks like a LibDem win, but by how much?