Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

[Maz]

Newly promoted?

It’s more like Chelsea getting a new manager and losing to Palace, and then saying it’s encouraging they only lost by two goals.

[stevek]

Originally Posted by Maz

Newly promoted?

It’s more like Chelsea getting a new manager and losing to Palace, and then saying it’s encouraging they only lost by two goals.

Getting a new manager having been roundly trounced in a series of matches beforehand (the European election; the Peterborough by-election) against a resurgent Palace team.

The analogy isn't a perfect one...

[ExiledStirling]

Originally Posted by Maz

There’s been some good answers, yes. But they have explained the reasons, not necessarily the reason for encouragement.

Fact is that the new leader, for all his ‘optimism’, has lost a seat he could ill afford to lose.

Yes you are right they could not afford to lose, but they were going to, so the extent of the loss reflected the 'Boris bounce' and his wonderful message of optimism triumphing over reality. It gives them reason for encouragement as it shows that a significant number of the populace are being taken in by his BS.

[gold76]

I agree with Cary, Sir John is usually very bright..

I agree with Maz, his terminology not the best on this occasion

I agree with Sir Dougie, a disaster for Labour

[daverambo2]

Originally Posted by stevek

Labour have made their position clear. While in opposition, they are a remain party. They are calling for a second referendum, and would campaign for remain in any referendum on no deal or a Tory deal. They are a clear remain party.

Of course, if there's a general election, well then they might or might not be a remain party. And if they get into power, they might negotiate their own deal. But they would put any such deal to a referendum. And they might or might not campaign for their own deal in such circumstances.

So how you can call them a fence sitting party, I really don't know.

That’s one of the most hilarious and deluded posts I’ve read in along time.

[gold76]

Originally Posted by adrenalin john

Some interesting posts on here and it's the sort of result that everyone can read what they want in it and make a case for.

What is clear is that when leave politicians say the country just wants to get on with it and leave that is simply untrue. Brecon voted leave in the referendum and have just elected a remain MP.

What is also true is that you would think a significant majority of the tory votes and all the UKIP and Brexit ones would vote some form of leave in a new referendum and given their numbers the leave virus strain is still virulent.

The country is split, and maybe the country should split. Ireland reunify and Scotland, Wales and London go independent. Englander can then be free to go full on little.

A mere aside, I see Sinn Fein are calling for a vote on reunification

[gold76]

Surely, with a squeaky majority of one (does that include Elphicke?)

That on return in September, if the disaster of a no deal is to be averted, then Corbyn must acquiesce to Swinson's no confidence request.

[stevek]

Originally Posted by daverambo2

That’s one of the most hilarious and deluded posts I’ve read in along time.

It is an accurate representation of the Labour Party position. It was also intentionally humorous. There's no delusion here on my part - I think the Labour Party's position is a complete mess.

[dogstar721]

Originally Posted by eddieskyclad

A loss is a loss but it was much closer than anyone predicted and the progressive alliance nonsense was a huge factor that will be difficult to replicate on a national stage. Nothing for boris to be disheartened about...

I think putting up a candidate who was deselected by 20% of the electorate was probably a very bad choice by the Conservative party - Who absolutely needed to win this seat. Given it was a leave seat, and the vote went to a Lib Dem should be a concern as well.

I think there is a lot to be disheartened about, not least only having a majority of one makes it really hard to claim anykind of mandate. But I think that the government pretty much expected to lose. Normally, you'd have expected to see them pull out all the stops, parachute a big name in and even have the PM 'kissing babies' to try to retain that majority.

I don't think it says too much about the national picture - but it does say a lot about the position the conservative party is in, that they went with their candidate (one that had be deselcted due to criminal activity), in a byelection that they could lose, and only have the tinyist of majority in the House. That was rank arrogance and they paid a heavy price.

Question is where do they go from here. They're more reliant now on the DUP than they were yesterday. And thats not a good thing for the Government.

They might be able to take away some points, like it wasn't that big a loss. But the reality of that loss is significant. They're one seat away from losing a house majority at a point where they have a leader who's devisive, and hasn't faced a general election and are in a position where they cannot even rely on their own party to vote with the government.

They're in trouble.

[dogstar721]

Originally Posted by Maz

Newly promoted?

It’s more like Chelsea getting a new manager and losing to Palace, and then saying it’s encouraging they only lost by two goals.

My analogy, for what its worth, is that its like that, except the new manager is focusing more on how the opposition missed a penalty, and that blathering on about a single decision that changed 'the whole of the game', despite being 2-0 down at that point.

[SE25 exile]

Originally Posted by stevek

Labour have made their position clear. While in opposition, they are a remain party. They are calling for a second referendum, and would campaign for remain in any referendum on no deal or a Tory deal. They are a clear remain party.

Of course, if there's a general election, well then they might or might not be a remain party. And if they get into power, they might negotiate their own deal. But they would put any such deal to a referendum. And they might or might not campaign for their own deal in such circumstances.

So how you can call them a fence sitting party, I really don't know.

Labour have offered the membership two policies.

1. If a Tory deal is struck that is bad for jobs etc, they will vote against it. The same for a Tory no deal. Call for refendum and campaign for remain.

and

2. If Labour wins a general election, then ignore the above totally. They will negotiate a replacement Labour deal with the EU and go with that

so

If there is a Labour government under Corbyn, we will leave the EU, and that is quite clear. They are still a Brexit party, and it is nonsense to suggest that they would campaign against their own negotiated deal if it was put to the people in a referendum.

[stevek]

Originally Posted by SE25 exile

Labour have offered the membership two policies.

1. If a Tory deal is struck that is bad for jobs etc, they will vote against it. The same for a Tory no deal. Call for refendum and campaign for remain.

and

2. If Labour wins a general election, then ignore the above totally. They will negotiate a replacement Labour deal with the EU and go with that

so

If there is a Labour government under Corbyn, we will leave the EU, and that is quite clear. They are still a Brexit party.

It's difficult to be clear given all the conflicting statements, but my representation of the Labour position in the event of a general election is more accurate than yours, I think. As it stands, they have not said what their manifesto position would be on Brexit. And they have left open the position of negotiating their own deal, and then campaigning against it in a referendum (I see you've edited to make that last point is nonsense - I agree, except Labour have said it!)

[fang]

Originally Posted by eddieskyclad

A loss is a loss but it was much closer than anyone predicted and the progressive alliance nonsense was a huge factor that will be difficult to replicate on a national stage. Nothing for boris to be disheartened about...

Said the 'old fashioned' socialist.

[brighton_eagle]

Originally Posted by stevek

Labour have made their position clear. While in opposition, they are a remain party. They are calling for a second referendum, and would campaign for remain in any referendum on no deal or a Tory deal. They are a clear remain party.

Of course, if there's a general election, well then they might or might not be a remain party. And if they get into power, they might negotiate their own deal. But they would put any such deal to a referendum. And they might or might not campaign for their own deal in such circumstances.

So how you can call them a fence sitting party, I really don't know.

What you've just described is fence sitting I'm afraid. They are remain in opposition but might be leave in power? That is the definition of unclear. If I vote for them I don't know which Labour party I'll be getting.

[weltklasse]

James Cleverly moaning about back room deals isn't that what his party has with the dUP.

[brighton_eagle]

Originally Posted by weltklasse

James Cleverly moaning about back room deals isn't that what his party has with the dUP.

[ExiledStirling]

Originally Posted by weltklasse

James Cleverly moaning about back room deals isn't that what his party has with the dUP.

In James Cleverly you find everything that is wrong with British politics.

He offers nothing of substance, he is just a mouth piece for spin.

He, like other prominent Tories, are now towing the new party line that the backstop is undemocratic, despite him having voted for May's deal every time.

He has zero to commend him. He is an appalling politician.

[Nth Kent Eagle]

Originally Posted by SE25 exile

Labour have offered the membership two policies.

1. If a Tory deal is struck that is bad for jobs etc, they will vote against it. The same for a Tory no deal. Call for refendum and campaign for remain.

and

2. If Labour wins a general election, then ignore the above totally. They will negotiate a replacement Labour deal with the EU and go with that

so

If there is a Labour government under Corbyn, we will leave the EU, and that is quite clear. They are still a Brexit party, and it is nonsense to suggest that they would campaign against their own negotiated deal if it was put to the people in a referendum.

The problem now is that Labour's current policy is a dead end for the party. I can't imagine any deal negotiated by the Tories would get the support of Labour. The only thing they can do in my opinion is to propose another referendum with a promise that in exchange for a remain vote they would carry out gigantic public spending (redistribution if necessary) in the politically neglected regions such as the north, midlands, SW, coastal communities and Wales. That would include renewable energy, investment in manufacturing, the same travel freebies as you get in London and a much, much fairer national distribution of senior jobs.

[stevek]

Originally Posted by brighton_eagle

What you've just described is fence sitting I'm afraid. They are remain in opposition but might be leave in power? That is the definition of unclear. If I vote for them I don't know which Labour party I'll be getting.

I seem to have whooshed a few people. Of course it's still fence sitting - I was being sarcastic.

[Selhurst Celtic]

The Lib Dems are coming. The meek shall indeed inherit the earth.