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  #101  
Old 24-05-2010, 09:08 AM
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  #102  
Old 24-05-2010, 09:09 AM
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Perhaps a friendly wager as to who will go further fin?
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  #103  
Old 24-05-2010, 09:10 AM
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  #104  
Old 24-05-2010, 09:29 AM
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Argentina seem fairly short considering how much they struggled in qualifying and how appalling Maradona is as a manager. The German machine must be good odds at 15.

I think the problem with Holland, as we saw in the euros, is that they struggle to break teams down. They are fantastic on the break with their pace, but not so good when they have to score. I also think they are a bit suspect defensively which means they can't just absorb pressure a la Inter.

Italy can always go either way, they'll either be rubbish or grind out results and go a long way. They are training at high altitude (about 2000m) which might play a large part as many of the grounds in S Africa are over 1000m above sea level.
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  #105  
Old 24-05-2010, 10:23 AM
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You can guarantee a solid Italian defence, provided they can find goals they will be in the running. Pretty easy group although I think trading wise you could do ok with Paraguay, they have a dynamite front 4 and if they beat Slovakia they're in the second round against probably Holland. Certainly possibility of a profit there don't you think?
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  #106  
Old 24-05-2010, 01:37 PM
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how good are mexico? 30-1 for a 2-2 draw 2nite
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  #107  
Old 24-05-2010, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
You can guarantee a solid Italian defence, provided they can find goals they will be in the running. Pretty easy group although I think trading wise you could do ok with Paraguay, they have a dynamite front 4 and if they beat Slovakia they're in the second round against probably Holland. Certainly possibility of a profit there don't you think?
paraguay are 100-1 gotta be worth a few quid cheers
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  #108  
Old 25-05-2010, 03:28 PM
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  #109  
Old 25-05-2010, 04:05 PM
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Clearly the way to find a good trading opportunity is looking at who has the easier routes through. I started to look at this and found that the favourites Spain have a horendous route through to the final and should expect to face.

Last 16 - Portugal
Quarter Final - Italy
Semi - Germany
Final - England

If they do it, they really will be worthy winners!
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  #110  
Old 26-05-2010, 09:14 AM
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Would be more interested in finding a team who might not qualify but if they do then their pre last 16 price would not be much lower than their current price with a view of laying to then back them if they do qualify.

So far I honestly think the downside for Brazil is not much at all (assuming someone like Spain doesn't get knocked out). Can see them being maybe half a point shorter if they qualify and it only takes one bad result against Ivory Coast (their 2nd match) and they're right in it. Even if they qualify they may well drift if they struggle.

Don't see Spain's price coming in at all (especially given the above draw which asides from Italy is quite tricky) but then I don't see them having any problems qualifying whatsoever so not much point in backing to lay or laying to back.

Think I should be able to work out in advance what trades I plan to make so if I do will post them up here, people are free to follow them and we can keep track of how they do, will only really be possible up to and including the last 8 I think.
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  #111  
Old 26-05-2010, 09:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
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Never looked into those things, having that much automation takes the fun out of it though but if I ever wanted to trade and try to make a job out of it then you would have to work out how this kind of software can help you, for now am happy with going the way I do
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  #112  
Old 26-05-2010, 09:18 AM
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some guy in the papers today is eurovision mad, he researches voting patterns and looks on you tube to see which countries songs may appeal etc
bets 300k on betfair, mainly on semis, wins 40k on average

bleedin eck!
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  #113  
Old 26-05-2010, 09:22 AM
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Well last year I did really well out of X Factor backing and laying in the 'next eviction' market. A lot of money traded so good liquidity and big gaps between the back and lay bets (whereas something like Premiership winner would have 3.25-3.3 for a runner this might have 3.1-3.4 so if you get backed on both sides there is a healthy margin).

People seem to blindly back / lay up to 500 without really caring what price they take. Guess it's that unlike most markets there is very little history / form to know what is and isn't a good price. Might be same opportunity on the Eurovision, if I'm in next Saturday might give it a go.
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  #114  
Old 26-05-2010, 09:25 AM
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As will I, can't hurt.
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  #115  
Old 26-05-2010, 09:32 AM
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Quote:
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big gaps between the back and lay bets (whereas something like Premiership winner would have 3.25-3.3 for a runner this might have 3.1-3.4 so if you get backed on both sides there is a healthy margin).
Not sure if I understand, but surely a bigger margin between back and lay makes it harder to make money from trading?
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  #116  
Old 26-05-2010, 09:56 AM
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back 50 at 3.4
lay 54.8 at 3.1
= profit of 4.50 guaranteed

To same stakes you make about 80p not 4.50 at 3.2-3.25

The bigger the gap the better when it comes to being matched on both sides
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Old 26-05-2010, 10:01 AM
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Quote:
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The bigger the gap the better when it comes to being matched on both sides
OK I think I see now - if your bets are matched, you gain from the wide margin rather than lose from it - but ... surely it's not easy to get both these wide margin bets matched, and you are relying on this to make money.

Last edited by Louis; 26-05-2010 at 10:03 AM.
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  #118  
Old 26-05-2010, 10:16 AM
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Yeah, getting backed on both sides is how I'm doing ok on the over1.5 goals market, is very very small margins though so requires patience, find it very satisfying though.

Made 23 from CL final and 9 from England friendly, lost 8 yesterday (first for ages on those market) on Ireland friendly but made a massive error getting involved with that market anyway as the price was too big to start with, still learning when and when not to get involved. It's not risk free but very close if I follow my rules, looking forward next year's Prem League to see if I can hit about 7-10% increase in bank per week which should be doable quite easily on a bank up to at least 2k I think
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Old 26-05-2010, 10:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Well last year I did really well out of X Factor backing and laying in the 'next eviction' market. A lot of money traded so good liquidity and big gaps between the back and lay bets (whereas something like Premiership winner would have 3.25-3.3 for a runner this might have 3.1-3.4 so if you get backed on both sides there is a healthy margin).

People seem to blindly back / lay up to 500 without really caring what price they take. Guess it's that unlike most markets there is very little history / form to know what is and isn't a good price. Might be same opportunity on the Eurovision, if I'm in next Saturday might give it a go.
I've made money from Eurovision the last few times I have done it, for the reasons that Fin has explained above. Most of the layers are clueless so a little knowledge and in depth analysis is very useful. Mind you so is a knowledge of local voting patterns!
Plus, like X factor you may have a lot of casual, not very savvy punters who will take the first "reasonable looking" price that they see.
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Old 26-05-2010, 10:30 AM
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Cheers Herts, interesting to hear, is it also the case that a lot of songs will shorten up right after they're on and then drift once people forget about them to a certain extent?
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