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  #19861  
Old 18-10-2020, 07:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Hedgehog View Post
I hear North Korea is pretty nice this time of year!

Although I suspect he might have his eyes on Scotland if there is any truth in this, which I very much doubt.
Didnt he sue Scotland?
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  #19862  
Old 18-10-2020, 07:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Hedgehog View Post
I wonder if there is a US version of the famous BBS meme “I’ll drive him to the airport myself”?
If only someone could invent some sort of system whereby you could use this system to search to find such things.

Like this.....Did Trump sue Scotland? Yes he did
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  #19863  
Old 18-10-2020, 07:15 AM
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Those turbines he complained about look great, I watched them being built as I was working by the coast at the time. I see them every morning on my way to work now. Not sure why people think they are ugly, reminds me of War of the Worlds.
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  #19864  
Old 18-10-2020, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Skin Up View Post
I would be very surprised if presidents are allowed to live abroad after their tenure is up (same probably goes for UK PMs) the 24/7 security they need for the rest of their lives would be difficult to move abroad permanently and they know too many secrets due to their security clearance - them falling into the clutches of a foreign government would be unthinkable.
I dunno. Think the Dignitas clinic in Switzerland would be perfect for him.
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  #19865  
Old 18-10-2020, 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Purepalace View Post
I dunno. Think the Dignitas clinic in Switzerland would be perfect for him.
Nah, you have to prove you are of sound mind to go there.
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  #19866  
Old 18-10-2020, 12:29 PM
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Nah, you have to prove you are of sound mind to go there.
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  #19867  
Old 18-10-2020, 05:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Maidstoned Eagle View Post
.....Did Trump sue Scotland? Yes he did
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Trump suing you is in his eyes is a term of endearment...

P.S. I wonder if the fine was ever paid?
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  #19868  
Old 19-10-2020, 03:46 AM
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Oh well, I guess we'll have four more years of Trump.

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  #19869  
Old 19-10-2020, 07:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Funk Butter View Post
Oh well, I guess we'll have four more years of Trump.

New York voting Trump? Typically near 20% lead for the Dems since Reagan.
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  #19870  
Old 19-10-2020, 07:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by little al View Post
Those turbines he complained about look great, I watched them being built as I was working by the coast at the time. I see them every morning on my way to work now. Not sure why people think they are ugly, reminds me of War of the Worlds.
Don’t they give you cancer?
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  #19871  
Old 19-10-2020, 07:48 AM
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  #19872  
Old 19-10-2020, 08:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funk Butter View Post
Oh well, I guess we'll have four more years of Trump.

A quick googleage and all I can find is something from the end of September and discussion about how this model is a retrospective of previous elections, ie it did not predict at all.

What is the source for this?
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  #19873  
Old 19-10-2020, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by rhino_mik View Post
A quick googleage and all I can find is something from the end of September and discussion about how this model is a retrospective of previous elections, ie it did not predict at all.

What is the source for this?
Donald Trump?
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  #19874  
Old 19-10-2020, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by rhino_mik View Post
A quick googleage and all I can find is something from the end of September and discussion about how this model is a retrospective of previous elections, ie it did not predict at all.

What is the source for this?
It was raised on here in July, when the independent reported it. Someone said it had predicted the 98 of the last 100 elections and we should all be terrified or something. This lost some weight when it was pointed out that there hadn’t been anything like 100 presidential elections.

It’s predicting Trump will win NY state. If anyone believes that you can clean up in a way that no one has before as Biden is 33 to 1 on to win NY state.
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  #19875  
Old 19-10-2020, 08:25 AM
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I wouldn't set too much store in Norpeth. Firstly, his model has only operated since 1996 - the other 20 elections weren't predicted by his model except after the fact and I bow to no-one in the power of hindsight. Secondly, the main basis of his model is how well people do in their primaries, which (obviously) are landslides for an incumbent so they have a massive bias in favour of the sitting president. Notably, in the time that he's been using the model predictively, no incumbent has lost - in fact, only 3 have lost since WW2. Predicting the incumbent to win is like predicting Chelsea will beat Fulham or a sunny day in July. In fact, famously, To view the link you have to Register or Login that have been remarkably accurate historically.

Here in NZ, we just had a general election. the predictive models told us that:
1. No party gets 50%+ of the seats in parliament (Labour got 64/120)
2. The minor partners in a coalition get slaughtered (The Greens increased their share from 6% to nearly 8%)
3. National get the rural seats (They lost half of them.)
Predictive models like Norpeth are being tweaked all the time, just like polls, and they are actually less likely to be right, despite the media coverage of the last US election. Norpeth may be right, but I wouldn't put the mortgage on it.
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  #19876  
Old 19-10-2020, 08:28 AM
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Furthermore, I've just noticed that To view the link you have to Register or Login I think there's been a bit happen since then.
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  #19877  
Old 19-10-2020, 09:08 AM
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Furthermore, I've just noticed that To view the link you have to Register or Login I think there's been a bit happen since then.
Yeah, he locks it in after the South Carolina primary is done, which is one of the first states usually. So since Trump walloped Joe Exotic in the first couple of primaries, that sort of support along with the incumbent factor gave him his numbers. Basically, his model is whatever the opposite of predictive is since he is constantly changing it to fit the criteria of the elections before it.
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  #19878  
Old 19-10-2020, 09:22 AM
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  #19879  
Old 19-10-2020, 09:31 AM
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Hawaii is solid blue, majority of the population is Pacific Islander and East Asian so unlikely to go to a man deemed to be sympathetic to white nationalists. Don't know much about the place tbh perhaps they're many wealthy mainland retirees and as they've got more worries than most re North Korean aggression might fear a new president being hawkish but I'm sure the first point will keep them blue. I expect Biden to win the northern swing states to get him to 270 but the midwest and southern states will provide a few surprises early in the night forcing both camps into spells of elation and despair.

Now that I've mentioned NK it reminds me that with this election so dominated by both COVID and with Trumpism being so divisive its more or less a referendum on their national character that foreign policy has been barely discussed during the campaign and that's pretty much the main reason us non Americans get so interested in the place. Would fancy a few questions along the lines of "What will your administration do if China invades Taiwan?/Iran makes a nuke?/NK flies missiles over South Korean or Japanese land?/Russia takes the piss in Ukraine again?" and so on if there's another debate.

Last edited by Skin Up; 19-10-2020 at 09:34 AM.
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  #19880  
Old 19-10-2020, 09:56 AM
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Oh well, I guess we'll have four more years of Trump.

I think the last 26 would take us back to 1916. Which makes his record even more impressive, as Helmut Norporth was only born in 1943
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