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  #41  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:16 PM
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I don't think that no deal is even possible.

Are we really going to stop trading with Europe until they give in to our demands, wilfully breaching an international peace treaty along the way?

The question should be:

1. Remain
2. The negotiated Deal
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  #42  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:22 PM
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Could we have some clarification on what is meant by "No deal"?

The Government's advice on flights to and from the rest of the EU in the event of a "No deal" (To view the link you have to Register or Login) includes the following.

"If there is ‘no deal’ with the EU, airlines wishing to operate flights between the UK and the EU would have to seek individual permissions to operate from the respective states (be that the UK or an EU country). In this scenario the UK would envisage granting permission to EU airlines to continue to operate. We would expect EU countries to reciprocate in turn. It would not be in the interest of any EU country or the UK to restrict the choice of destinations that could be served, though, if such permissions are not granted, there could be disruption to some flights.
In order to ensure permissions were granted and flights continued, the UK’s preference would be to agree a basic arrangement or understanding on a multilateral basis between the UK and the EU. Alternatively, bilateral arrangements between the UK and an individual EU country could be put in place, specifying the conditions under which air services would be permitted. By definition any such agreement would be reciprocal in nature. The European Commission has previously acknowledged that a ‘bare bones’ agreement on air services would be desirable in the event of the UK leaving with ‘no deal’.
In the scenario where a provisional deal is agreed for air services, airlines will continue to be required to apply for the following associated permissions."

Does "No deal" include having a deal to cover flights, as preferred by the UK Government? If so, are there other areas where we actually want to have some sort of a deal in the event of "No deal"? I suspect that there are, in which we do not mean "No deal" but rather "Limited deals".

Would we need some sort of a deal to enable May's diabetes medication to enter the UK?
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  #43  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Random* View Post
I don't think that no deal is even possible.

Are we really going to stop trading with Europe until they give in to our demands, wilfully breaching an international peace treaty along the way?

The question should be:

1. Remain
2. The negotiated Deal
Much that I agree no deal would be a disaster, I think it would have to be one of the options. Otherwise many those who voted out in the first referendum will argue there is no option for them on the new poll.
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  #44  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:27 PM
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Not sure I agree.

Eg, I would prefer to remain, but don't mind May's deal and am dead against
and very worried about no deal. Which way to I vote on the first question?
So if May’s deal loses in R1, Remain probably wins
If Leave loses in R1 then remain probably wins
And if Remain loses in R1 then May’s deal wins
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  #45  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by stevek View Post
Much that I agree no deal would be a disaster, I think it would have to be one of the options. Otherwise many those who voted out in the first referendum will argue there is no option for them on the new poll.
I've checked my options in the last 10 or so elections. I am yet to be offered a candidate standing on the principle that if he/she got in we would all have to cut off our left leg.

I'll carry on looking.
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  #46  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
I've checked my options in the last 10 or so elections. I am yet to be offered a candidate standing on the principle that if he/she got in we would all have to cut off our left leg.

I'll carry on looking.
Check out the parliamentary vote for Article 50
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  #47  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:31 PM
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Check out the parliamentary vote for Article 50
Good point
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  #48  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:43 PM
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A good start to this thread, but, Mays deal is not Leaving the EU that is not what the people voted for.
Its a withdrawal bill, its entirely about leaving the EU. It sets how the UK will migrate from within the EU, to a non-member, and establishes grounds for trading with the EU whilst we establish an actual trade deal with the EU.

The backstop is only a problem if the UK cannot solve the Irish Border issue, and if we're caught up in the backstop, we get to remain on EU Trading terms without having to accept the 'freedoms of the EU' - most notably Free Movement - Without having to contribute to the EU budget.

And to be honest, if parliament can't actually resolve a solution to the Northern Ireland border issue, it's going to struggle when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU and others.

Its not actually anywhere near as bad as either side makes out. Its simply a statement on how the transition period will play out (some of its good, some of its not that good). But the way that the 'Brexit whatever' / Remain Whatever brigades have explained it, you'd think it was handing over your first born.

Last edited by dogstar721; 17-01-2019 at 03:52 PM. Reason: I'm an illiterate spaz
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  #49  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Selhurst300 View Post
Could we have some clarification on what is meant by "No deal"?

The Government's advice on flights to and from the rest of the EU in the event of a "No deal" (To view the link you have to Register or Login) includes the following.

"If there is ‘no deal’ with the EU, airlines wishing to operate flights between the UK and the EU would have to seek individual permissions to operate from the respective states (be that the UK or an EU country). In this scenario the UK would envisage granting permission to EU airlines to continue to operate. We would expect EU countries to reciprocate in turn. It would not be in the interest of any EU country or the UK to restrict the choice of destinations that could be served, though, if such permissions are not granted, there could be disruption to some flights.
In order to ensure permissions were granted and flights continued, the UK’s preference would be to agree a basic arrangement or understanding on a multilateral basis between the UK and the EU. Alternatively, bilateral arrangements between the UK and an individual EU country could be put in place, specifying the conditions under which air services would be permitted. By definition any such agreement would be reciprocal in nature. The European Commission has previously acknowledged that a ‘bare bones’ agreement on air services would be desirable in the event of the UK leaving with ‘no deal’.
In the scenario where a provisional deal is agreed for air services, airlines will continue to be required to apply for the following associated permissions."

Does "No deal" include having a deal to cover flights, as preferred by the UK Government? If so, are there other areas where we actually want to have some sort of a deal in the event of "No deal"? I suspect that there are, in which we do not mean "No deal" but rather "Limited deals".

Would we need some sort of a deal to enable May's diabetes medication to enter the UK?
Yes, I doubt it would be as apocalyptic as some suggest, but it would be much worse than the deal. Likely the UK would need to spend a lot of time passing emergency legislation to deal with unexpected issues. Its important to remember that we've been part of Europe in one way for around 45 years (more Judically speaking) and a lot of how the UK does things is very much tied to how the EU / EEC / ECJ etc operate.


It turns out that the UK hasn't actually recovered wages wise to a point before the 2008 crash. I think its reasonable to imagine that there is very real potential of a UK No Deal being roughly on a par with the UK Banking crisis.
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  #50  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
Its a withdrawal bill, its entirely about leaving the EU. It sets how the EU will migrate from within the EU, to a non-member, and establishes grounds for trading with the EU whilst we establish an actual trade deal with the EU.

The backstop is only a problem if the UK cannot solve the Irish Border issue, and if we're caught up in the backstop, we get to remain on EU Trading terms without having to accept the 'freedoms of the EU' - most notably Free Movement - Without having to contribute to the EU budget.

And to be honest, if parliament can't actually resolve a solution to the Northern Ireland border issue, it's going to struggle when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU and others.

Its not actually anywhere near as bad as either side makes out. Its simply a statement on how the transition period will play out (some of its good, some of its not that good). But the way that the 'Brexit whatever' / Remain Whatever brigades have explained it, you'd think it was handing over your first born.
I know 17 million people think they suck but surely the EU hasn't taken it that badly that they are leaving themselves?
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  #51  
Old 17-01-2019, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Random* View Post
I don't think that no deal is even possible.

Are we really going to stop trading with Europe until they give in to our demands, wilfully breaching an international peace treaty along the way?

The question should be:

1. Remain
2. The negotiated Deal
1. 2nd Referendum
2. General Election
3. Deal
4. No Deal

All this talk about 'having a second referendum' is about doing it till you get the right result is bulls**t.

If we have a second referendum, and it finishes with a 10% slide to Remain - that's still people who likely as not have actually changed their minds. These aren't different people, they're still the citizens of the UK.

Granted, some will be dead, some won't have voted last time - but in and of itself, if Leave lost, by 10% that's still mostly leavers changing their mind.
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  #52  
Old 17-01-2019, 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
And to be honest, if parliament can't actually resolve a solution to the Northern Ireland border issue, it's going to struggle when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the EU and others.
Weirdly the successful negotiation of the GFA is seen as a greater achievement than the negotiation of CETA. Some might say that resolving the GFA having removed the circumstances in which it was created will equally be a lot tougher than negotiating CETA.
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  #53  
Old 17-01-2019, 04:06 PM
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I'm not .... But that just takes us back to where we are now or leads to the best of three .... Or let's boogie every 2 years.... Pointless ... you lost ... Get over it.
Remain and reform the EU, with an agreement not to hold another referendum from both sides for at least a generation.
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  #54  
Old 17-01-2019, 05:19 PM
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Remain and reform the EU ...
Ha ha ha ha ha ha !

Thank you for that.
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  #55  
Old 17-01-2019, 05:27 PM
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Ha ha ha ha ha ha !

Thank you for that.
Think early Thatcher as opposed to Cameron and understand it is possible
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  #56  
Old 17-01-2019, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by in-exile View Post
And here is the two choices!

1. Back Theresa May's Leave deal .... Apparently it's the only deal on offer.
2. We just Leave on WTO while waiting for a trade deal and save 30 odd billion.

No Remain option is needed because that has already been dealt with in the last people's vote....
Parliament is divided and cannot lead .... Time for the second vote!

Feel free to agree or give your second referendum choices! (Snowflake wankers!)
I know this is tongue in cheek, and I don't think you'll be interested in serious replies in any event, but I'm going to provide my own take on it.

The 2016 referendum expressed a desire to leave the EU, and it was 100% the duty of the Government to attempt to do that. In doing that, she (or anyone else doing the job for that matter) faced two fundamental difficulties. These are

1) What "leave" means is very different to different groups of leave voters, meaning that whatever the govt (any govt) came back with was likely to be unacceptable to many leave voters

2) More importantly, the central premise of the leave campaign was inherently undeliverable. The whole leave argument was based on the idea that we could remove ourselves from EU regulation and obligations, end free movement, and do all of this without serious impact on our trade with Europe and the wider economy.

The first issue could be resolved by a good deal, but the second meant that what was delivered was never going to be what was promised (or at least what people believed they had been promised, which is probably more important). And to be fair to May's deal, if the aim was to end free movement and limit the role of the ECJ while at the same time keeping economic damage to a minimum, then it is probably as good as can be expected.

But of course, some leavers don't see it like that. They see the deal as a failure of negotiation rather than the inevitable result of going into a negotiation with inherently unachievable aims. And that incorrect view is why they view it as they do.

But, the reality is that unless parliament can agree on a different (probably much softer) form of Brexit, that the options are effectively that deal, no deal, or calling the whole thing off. Now many leavers have already made it clear that the deal May brought back is not what they voted for, while many leave supporting MPs have made it clear that they could never support no deal (a view presumably share by at least a fair sized, albeit quiet, minority of leavers).

In other words, what many people thought they were voting for cannot and will not happen. Which in one sense makes the 2016 result rather meaningless in terms of understanding what people want from the available options now.

So the sensible plan now is surely to put the options back to people based on what is available, and let people choose the one they want. And those options need to include the status quo of remain(as some leave voters may prefer that to either of the available options) as well as both leave options. A 1st / 2nd preference system where the 2nd preferences of those who vote for the least popular option once that is eliminated ensures that every view is heard, and resolves the legitimate concern of splitting the leave vote.

Such an approach is the only democratic way of resolving this issue when all of the facts are considered . . . . .which is probably why it wont happen
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  #57  
Old 17-01-2019, 05:57 PM
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Ha ha ha ha ha ha !

Thank you for that.
So, the bottom line is that you would prefer to be subject to rules made by the EU (which you will be, if you want to trade with them, travel there, live there etc) than have a say, a direct hand in drafting those rules and any changes, and a veto as a member?
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  #58  
Old 17-01-2019, 06:00 PM
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Remain or Leave, anything else is just an attempt at vote rigging.
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  #59  
Old 17-01-2019, 06:04 PM
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Remain or Leave, anything else is just an attempt at vote rigging.
it really really isn’t as what you propose achieves nothing as it doesn’t address the flavour of leave.

A referendum is required if parliament cannot agree a way forward. Parliament then have to allow the electorate to do their job for them and decide the next steps and that decision has to produce some finality. So if leave is chosen the flavour of leave has to be chosen as well.
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Old 17-01-2019, 06:05 PM
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Remain or Leave, anything else is just an attempt at vote rigging.
Ah yes the stupidly worded question that was so vague and led to the current situation. Lol
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