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  #61  
Old 25-04-2019, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted by scro View Post
The only thing that makes us a laughing stock is the fact we are making such a pigs ear of a decision that in the long term will barely mean anything. I think the EU membership is almost of no consequence whatsoever in the long term. It neither represents a liberal openness nor does leaving it indicate a closed minded bigotry. The economics of it in the long term will be ignorable if we don't do too much damage deciding.

I find it interesting that supporting scottish independence and a desire for more devolved power is not seen as close minded bigotry. Yet the same decision for Britain is framed lazily as a right wing decision. The immigration part of the debate has received too much focus.
I think one way of looking at the difference is that we have not been colonised by the EU. Whereas for all intents and purposes Scotland has been colonised / absorbed by us. We have far far far more influence at the EU level than Scotland does at the U.K. level. We have a veto at the EU level and can leave when we choose to. Scotland has no veto at the U.K. level, and cannot legally leave the U.K. without us agreeing to it. In substance Scotland is not a country.

That doesn’t mean Scotland leaving the U.K. wouldn’t be a disaster for them. It would. It would have a worse relative effect on them than us leaving the EU would.

But there obviously is a difference. Once upon a time the SNP were of a very different flavour to what they are now and some of the challenges levelled at UKIP types could have been levelled at the then SNP supporters. But that really was quite a long time ago.
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  #62  
Old 25-04-2019, 08:32 AM
Johnybegood Johnybegood is offline
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Originally Posted by scro View Post
The only thing that makes us a laughing stock is the fact we are making such a pigs ear of a decision that in the long term will barely mean anything. I think the EU membership is almost of no consequence whatsoever in the long term. It neither represents a liberal openness nor does leaving it indicate a closed minded bigotry. The economics of it in the long term will be ignorable if we don't do too much damage deciding.

I find it interesting that supporting scottish independence and a desire for more devolved power is not seen as close minded bigotry. Yet the same decision for Britain is framed lazily as a right wing decision. The immigration part of the debate has received too much focus.
The economics of it will be far from 'ignorable'. 8% of GDP in the first 2 years in a no deal scenario is catastrophic. Even the 2% of GDP growth we have lost since the referendum is worth some 50-60 billion....and I think those workers at Honda, Nissan etc may 'notice' their jobs being lost as a consequence.
As for the immigration debate 'has received too much focus'...really!! Hate crime has shot up and people like Il Padrino's direct relatives who have lived here since 1947 have to apply for settled status...but we should not focus on things like this???
Maybe we should instead focus on all the positives of brexit, I.e, British overseas territories tax havens for the rich etc but don't mention the sunlit uplands, new/easy trade deals, murders of a British MP and Lyra McKee in NI, lost investment, lost jobs, sterling devaluation.
And the Scottish independence campaign was not based on bigotry and run with posters showing queues of fleeing refugees and a doctor's waiing room blaming immigrants for fewer appointments.
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  #63  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Adlerhorst View Post
I think one way of looking at the difference is that we have not been colonised by the EU. Whereas for all intents and purposes Scotland has been colonised / absorbed by us. We have far far far more influence at the EU level than Scotland does at the U.K. level. We have a veto at the EU level and can leave when we choose to. Scotland has no veto at the U.K. level, and cannot legally leave the U.K. without us agreeing to it. In substance Scotland is not a country.

That doesn’t mean Scotland leaving the U.K. wouldn’t be a disaster for them. It would. It would have a worse relative effect on them than us leaving the EU would.

But there obviously is a difference. Once upon a time the SNP were of a very different flavour to what they are now and some of the challenges levelled at UKIP types could have been levelled at the then SNP supporters. But that really was quite a long time ago.
We have a veto on some things, most things are decided by a qualified majority.

Whereas for all intents and purposes Scotland has been colonised / absorbed by us. - Scotland joined us to escape their debts and to have their fecking empire saved. In return we got their civil war. A piss poor deal from any pov.

In substance Scotland is not a country. - Try that in a sweaty pub just before closing.

Finally, I grant you Salmond was very much, we can do it better ourselves but the other fish person is very much someone that hates the English. Remember when Salmond wanted out the oil price was high and looked like going higher, that would be a win for the Scotch. Its the opposite now and would be bad for them but she still ploughs on.
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  #64  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Johnybegood View Post
The economics of it will be far from 'ignorable'. 8% of GDP in the first 2 years in a no deal scenario is catastrophic. Even the 2% of GDP growth we have lost since the referendum is worth some 50-60 billion....and I think those workers at Honda, Nissan etc may 'notice' their jobs being lost as a consequence.
As for the immigration debate 'has received too much focus'...really!! Hate crime has shot up and people like Il Padrino's direct relatives who have lived here since 1947 have to apply for settled status...but we should not focus on things like this???
Maybe we should instead focus on all the positives of brexit, I.e, British overseas territories tax havens for the rich etc but don't mention the sunlit uplands, new/easy trade deals, murders of a British MP and Lyra McKee in NI, lost investment, lost jobs, sterling devaluation.
And the Scottish independence campaign was not based on bigotry and run with posters showing queues of fleeing refugees and a doctor's waiing room blaming immigrants for fewer appointments.
The economics of it will be far from 'ignorable'. 8% of GDP in the first 2 years in a no deal sc..... - Fake news as is the jobs story at those factories. Its all been done to death on the Brexit thread.

I can't be bothered with the rest its just nonsense.
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  #65  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Skintagain View Post
The economics of it will be far from 'ignorable'. 8% of GDP in the first 2 years in a no deal sc..... - Fake news as is the jobs story at those factories. Its all been done to death on the Brexit thread.

I can't be bothered with the rest its just nonsense.
It must be nice to be retired with a healthy pension and to be able to just wave away concerns over the state of the economy and people's jobs
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  #66  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Adlerhorst View Post
I think one way of looking at the difference is that we have not been colonised by the EU. Whereas for all intents and purposes Scotland has been colonised / absorbed by us. We have far far far more influence at the EU level than Scotland does at the U.K. level. We have a veto at the EU level and can leave when we choose to. Scotland has no veto at the U.K. level, and cannot legally leave the U.K. without us agreeing to it. In substance Scotland is not a country.

That doesn’t mean Scotland leaving the U.K. wouldn’t be a disaster for them. It would. It would have a worse relative effect on them than us leaving the EU would.

But there obviously is a difference. Once upon a time the SNP were of a very different flavour to what they are now and some of the challenges levelled at UKIP types could have been levelled at the then SNP supporters. But that really was quite a long time ago.
I disagree they have a disproportionate influence on british politics and a hell of a lot of devolved powers.

I think it's also fair to suggest that the EU has grown and expanded beyond anything the public has ever had a say on.
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  #67  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Johnybegood View Post
The economics of it will be far from 'ignorable'. 8% of GDP in the first 2 years in a no deal scenario is catastrophic. Even the 2% of GDP growth we have lost since the referendum is worth some 50-60 billion....and I think those workers at Honda, Nissan etc may 'notice' their jobs being lost as a consequence.
As for the immigration debate 'has received too much focus'...really!! Hate crime has shot up and people like Il Padrino's direct relatives who have lived here since 1947 have to apply for settled status...but we should not focus on things like this???
Maybe we should instead focus on all the positives of brexit, I.e, British overseas territories tax havens for the rich etc but don't mention the sunlit uplands, new/easy trade deals, murders of a British MP and Lyra McKee in NI, lost investment, lost jobs, sterling devaluation.
And the Scottish independence campaign was not based on bigotry and run with posters showing queues of fleeing refugees and a doctor's waiing room blaming immigrants for fewer appointments.
Even if i agree the figures and the adjectives. I think these impacts are more related to the poor execution as they are to the actual impact of leaving the union. I recall there were something like 7 economic studies on what the EU membership was "worth" to Britain that the house of commons library accepted as legitimate. If i recall correctly one said the cost/benefit was basically even and the the other six were split down the middle declaring very marginally either way. I just don't buy the idea that in or out in the long term it makes a huge difference. That is a purely economic suspicion based on what i have read and listened to. I am clearly no economics expert.

As for the immigration thing. I think the hateful side of it has flourished due to the fact it's been focused on disproportionately by both sides. I think it's an over reaction to feel unwelcome based on having to fill in a few bits of paperwork. An over reaction fuelled by people with an irrational agenda. In much the same way the bigots have done the same.
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  #68  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by scro View Post
I find it interesting that supporting scottish independence and a desire for more devolved power is not seen as close minded bigotry. Yet the same decision for Britain is framed lazily as a right wing decision. .
It might have something to do with immigration not playing a part in the scottish independence referendum. The lack of posters like this



Or it being stated that we need to 'take back control' of our security and borders like this



Focusing on immigration and deportation of foreigners. 2 out of the 5 demands of the official campaign and the main focus of the unofficial one. There is a reason the two campaigns are seen in wholly different lights.
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  #69  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by scro View Post
Even if i agree the figures and the adjectives. I think these impacts are more related to the poor execution as they are to the actual impact of leaving the union.
Given our union's laws and given the need to resolve the border how could it have been 'executed' better?
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  #70  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:52 AM
Johnybegood Johnybegood is offline
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Originally Posted by scro View Post
Even if i agree the figures and the adjectives. I think these impacts are more related to the poor execution as they are to the actual impact of leaving the union. I recall there were something like 7 economic studies on what the EU membership was "worth" to Britain that the house of commons library accepted as legitimate. If i recall correctly one said the cost/benefit was basically even and the the other six were split down the middle declaring very marginally either way. I just don't buy the idea that in or out in the long term it makes a huge difference. That is a purely economic suspicion based on what i have read and listened to. I am clearly no economics expert.

As for the immigration thing. I think the hateful side of it has flourished due to the fact it's been focused on disproportionately by both sides. I think it's an over reaction to feel unwelcome based on having to fill in a few bits of paperwork. An over reaction fuelled by people with an irrational agenda. In much the same way the bigots have done the same.
The 8% decline in GDP is the governments own impact analysis for a no deal scenario. The poor execution you refer to e.g TMs deal would have a negative impact of 2-3% (although they are supposed to be secret. I am an economist by training and I actually think a no deal scenario would be far worse than 8%. Such an economic hit will not only be devastating to those who lose their jobs/homes etc but also for the wider society e.g. social disorder and disruption to NHS and public services. The real long long term impact could see the country bankrupted which would only please the far right offshore ultra wealthy who could pick over the bare bones of a devastated economy.

As for implying it was an 'irrational agenda' to point out the killings of Jo Cox and Lyra McKee and an upsurge in race related hate crime being related to brexit is beyond me. Just filling out 'a few bits of paper'....really!
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  #71  
Old 25-04-2019, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
It might have something to do with immigration not playing a part in the scottish independence referendum. The lack of posters like this



Or it being stated that we need to 'take back control' of our security and borders like this



Focusing on immigration and deportation of foreigners. 2 out of the 5 demands of the official campaign and the main focus of the unofficial one. There is a reason the two campaigns are seen in wholly different lights.
OK i admit it was a bit glib of me to make the comparison. I do think there is a valid and non bigoted case to be made for british independence from the EU. I personally didn't think it was worth the bother but i don't think you should be overly sensitive when it comes to applying for your settled status. I just don't see why that upsets people. I have family that will have to do it they won't care.

As for immigration i think there is a case to be made for a more well run selective system. I suspect you could still have executed that from within the eu though. I think things like freedom of movement should be applied only as a freedom to work.

I genuinely wouldn't get too attached to ideas of nation or belonging. They aren't really all that real. The average bloke in the street doesn't care much about the average stranger. So i certainly wouldn't spend too much time considering whether they think you are welcome or not. Quite simply i couldn't care less. You tend to find even right wingers start to make you feel welcome once they actually know you. It's quite misleading if you ask me to mix up personal emotions with collective decisions and notions of independence etc. I think it's perfectly possible to be pro brexit but to equally think the german/italian/polish person currently living next door is more than welcome/free to live next door. This is not to justify any hate crime, i just don't think applying for settlement is all that concerning, if it comes to it.
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  #72  
Old 25-04-2019, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Johnybegood View Post
As for implying it was an 'irrational agenda' to point out the killings of Jo Cox and Lyra McKee and an upsurge in race related hate crime being related to brexit is beyond me. Just filling out 'a few bits of paper'....really!
well i didn't say that. So i think you underline my point.
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  #73  
Old 25-04-2019, 10:06 AM
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OK i admit it was a bit glib of me to make the comparison. I do think there is a valid and non bigoted case to be made for british independence from the EU. I personally didn't think it was worth the bother but i don't think you should be overly sensitive when it comes to applying for your settled status. I just don't see why that upsets people. I have family that will have to do it they won't care.

As for immigration i think there is a case to be made for a more well run selective system. I suspect you could still have executed that from within the eu though. I think things like freedom of movement should be applied only as a freedom to work.

I genuinely wouldn't get too attached to ideas of nation or belonging. They aren't really all that real. The average bloke in the street doesn't care much about the average stranger. So i certainly wouldn't spend too much time considering whether they think you are welcome or not. Quite simply i couldn't care less. You tend to find even right wingers start to make you feel welcome once they actually know you. It's quite misleading if you ask me to mix up personal emotions with collective decisions and notions of independence etc. I think it's perfectly possible to be pro brexit but to equally think the german/italian/polish person currently living next door is more than welcome/free to live next door.
Oh I agree you can be pro brexit and not anti-immigration. In fact it would seem the main proponents of Brexit in parliament are themselves pro brexit and pro immigration with immigration levels remaining the same despite a huge slump in Eu immigration. None of them have batted an eyelid at this controllable immigration.

I'm just not convinced that the average brexiteer voted for more brown people and more muslims. Certainly none of the brexiteers I know are keen for more muslims and the millwall type brexiteers i know definitely don't like brown muslims.

I have a nagging doubt that if the bus had stated "Lets have a points based immigration system so less white christian people come to the UK as we want more brown muslims" it would have had the desired effect. Something tells me brexit wouldn't have happened if the bus had said that.

Maybe I'm wrong?
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  #74  
Old 25-04-2019, 10:14 AM
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Oh I agree you can be pro brexit and not anti-immigration. In fact it would seem the main proponents of Brexit in parliament are themselves pro brexit and pro immigration with immigration levels remaining the same despite a huge slump in Eu immigration. None of them have batted an eyelid at this controllable immigration.

I'm just not convinced that the average brexiteer voted for more brown people and more muslims. Certainly none of the brexiteers I know are keen for more muslims and the millwall type brexiteers i know definitely don't like brown muslims.

I have a nagging doubt that if the bus had stated "Lets have a points based immigration system so less white christian people come to the UK as we want more brown muslims" it would have had the desired effect. Something tells me brexit wouldn't have happened if the bus had said that.

Maybe I'm wrong?
There are extremes on both sides. From people that voted for brexit to make a point about all immigration to those that will release coakroaches in byron because immigration laws are applied and ultimately will vote to remain from a desire to have no restrictions on movement.
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Old 25-04-2019, 10:18 AM
Johnybegood Johnybegood is offline
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well i didn't say that. So i think you underline my point.
You reduced the real impact (i.e. murder, hate crime) of the brexit immigration arguments to being just more paperwork for those needing to claim resettled status......and you also brushed over the economic hit of 8% decline on GDP as debateable depending on which economist you believe, or even if you believe the 95% of economists, that it would not make a huge difference / project fear type excuse
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  #76  
Old 25-04-2019, 10:23 AM
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You reduced the real impact (i.e. murder, hate crime) of the brexit immigration arguments to being just more paperwork for those needing to claim resettled status......and you also brushed over the economic hit of 8% decline on GDP as debateable depending on which economist you believe, or even if you believe the 95% of economists, that it would not make a huge difference / project fear type excuse
No i didn't I expressed the view that the act of leaving the eu isn't the thing that caused it but the overly exaggerated irrational debate on immigration, belonging and whether someone is welcome, did. I blame both sides of the argument for it.
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  #77  
Old 25-04-2019, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Johnybegood View Post
You reduced the real impact (i.e. murder, hate crime) of the brexit immigration arguments to being just more paperwork for those needing to claim resettled status......and you also brushed over the economic hit of 8% decline on GDP as debateable depending on which economist you believe, or even if you believe the 95% of economists, that it would not make a huge difference / project fear type excuse
I didn't brush over it. I deliberately didn't try and claim any expertise that is all. Simply choosing to believe the studies i quoted earlier. I would also say that we were promised these life changing impacts before brexit even happened. Yet employment figures seem to be doing ok. The numbers of jobs being moved out of london in my line of work was massively over exaggerated etc.

Best for me to not speak with authority on it because like i say I am no expert, I cannot recall who it was I was listening to the other day. Probably on the political party pod but there are very intelligent commentators that still hold the view that long term the difference either way will be negligible.

anyway this is a thread about settlement and the emotion and process involved. So probably best to steer away from the economic impact. There is already an almost impenetrable behemoth of a thread on that.
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  #78  
Old 25-04-2019, 11:47 AM
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I used to think government departments were government departments. On the whole they seemed to be large, obviously bureaucratic, but staffed in the main by people who want to do a good job and recognise they are paid by the tax payer.

Even the inland revenue who I have had most to deal with do try to be fair and (not in busy times) are easy to speak with, even one time giveing me pre-clearance on ER which was particularly helpful.

But then there is the Home Office, unless you have dealt with these people you simply don't realise how anti-human being they are, arbitary decisons, impossible to communicate and they start from the position that everyone is lieing. Not only that the fees run into thousands and thousands of pounds, whether your application is approved or not.

I genuinely do not recognise them as a 'British' government department. Spanish under Franco would be the era and effeciency I would categorise them as, and Swiss in terms of cost.
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Old 25-04-2019, 11:52 AM
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I also find it incredibly sad that the chaos and uncertainty that brexit has caused EU citizens in the UK, and likewise UK citizens in the EU, as wellas to their extended networks of friends and relatives has been largely ignored in the UK.

Brexit isn't just an economic and diplomatic nonsense, it is directly effecting people's lives in highly adverse manner.
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Old 25-04-2019, 01:04 PM
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