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  #41  
Old 01-08-2019, 05:13 PM
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50% of the vote last time to the Tories and UKIP. All going to depend on how the Brexit Party splits the leave vote and whether Labour supporters will tick the Lib Dem box.
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  #42  
Old 01-08-2019, 06:02 PM
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Skintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietSkintagain came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
He can't win, its incredible myopathy from the local party. I'm sure another Tory candidate would win but he's been caught trousering what most people think, and rightly so, is their money.
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  #43  
Old 01-08-2019, 06:38 PM
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He can't win, its incredible myopathy from the local party. I'm sure another Tory candidate would win but he's been caught trousering what most people think, and rightly so, is their money.
Agree
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  #44  
Old 01-08-2019, 07:10 PM
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He can't win, its incredible myopathy from the local party. I'm sure another Tory candidate would win but he's been caught trousering what most people think, and rightly so, is their money.
Except he wasn't caught trousering anything.

He was caught creating a fake invoice for something he was entitled to claim for, from expenses he was entitled to use. If he'd gone back to the vendor and got two separate invoices it would have been fine.

But yes, I cant believe they put him up as the candidate again.
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  #45  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:08 PM
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It all depends on how good the Lib Dems were at squeezing the Labour vote.
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  #46  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:48 PM
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It all depends on how good the Lib Dems were at squeezing the Labour vote.
Lib Dems reckon they have in Ystradgynlais and Ystalyfera. But on the flip side Adrian Masters (ITV Wales) just posted this

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I have no idea about betting so I pass this on unaltered and without any explanation: ‘massive move on betfair conservatives just back in from 17-1 to 8-1 proper money changing hands.’
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  #47  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Reps AJ View Post
Except he wasn't caught trousering anything.

He was caught creating a fake invoice for something he was entitled to claim for, from expenses he was entitled to use. If he'd gone back to the vendor and got two separate invoices it would have been fine.

But yes, I cant believe they put him up as the candidate again.
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  #48  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Heb 7:4 View Post
Lib Dems reckon they have in Ystradgynlais and Ystalyfera. But on the flip side Adrian Masters (ITV Wales) just posted this
Fake news. BF solidly calling LDs at the mo with +95% probability. Tories haven't been near those figures since Tuesday.

That said, the count is a bizarre thing. Only a limited amount of people are allowed in, and trust me, they'll be focusing entirely on counting the ballots. They wouldn't have the time to nip outside and place a few hundred quid online - or at least if they do, they're not doing their job properly.
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  #49  
Old 02-08-2019, 01:38 AM
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Lib Dem victory according to BBC, won by over 1,400 votes. Government majority might be gone come the end of conference season, certainly talk of deflections won't go away after this.
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  #50  
Old 02-08-2019, 01:44 AM
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Greens and PC signing up to the Remain Alliance helped win that for the Lib Dems. They need to return the favour in seats where PC/Greens are stronger.
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  #51  
Old 02-08-2019, 02:14 AM
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Greens and PC signing up to the Remain Alliance helped win that for the Lib Dems. They need to return the favour in seats where PC/Greens are stronger.
Very, very, very happy to reciprocate where we can.
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  #52  
Old 02-08-2019, 02:35 AM
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UKIP get less votes than the Loony Party

Probably more unbelievabley, despite being charged for making false expense claims, 12,401 adults thought Chris Davies was still the right person to represent them.

Oh well, so Boris now has a working majority of one.
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  #53  
Old 02-08-2019, 06:37 AM
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  #54  
Old 02-08-2019, 06:43 AM
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Closer than I thought it would be.
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  #55  
Old 02-08-2019, 06:45 AM
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Yes. Me too.
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  #56  
Old 02-08-2019, 07:13 AM
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Labour spokesperson said that the collapse in their share was down to tactical voting. Yes it was, a tactical vote for the remain alliance to beat the Tories, the Brexit party, and a leave Labour party
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  #57  
Old 02-08-2019, 07:17 AM
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Closer than I thought it would be.
We knew before the vote that Boris had gleaned back some of the BP vote, around 7/10%, so not entirely surprising. However, it was not enough and has revealed to all that Boris is just as vulnerable as May, despite all his blustering energy, turbo charging and optimism routines.
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  #58  
Old 02-08-2019, 07:48 AM
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Great news to wake up to
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  #59  
Old 02-08-2019, 07:53 AM
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Interesting result.

Sadly, it shows that a large percentage of the country still wants Brexit at any price and are motivated to vote for it.

It also shows that the Brexit party is still a massive threat to the Tories, and to a lesser extent Labour.

Labour are currently lost.

Libs greens and PC showed great maturity to cooperate to victory.

The two big questions:

Will Labour change direction and go for a massive coalition with SNP, PC, Greens and Libs?

Will the Tories do a deal with the Brexit party?
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  #60  
Old 02-08-2019, 08:00 AM
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Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said the Conservatives were enjoying a "Boris bounce" and that the result was encouraging for the party despite the loss.

Glad I don't study politics at Strathclyde...
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