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  #41  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Sharkba1t View Post
So many assumptions.
Do you really think that Sinn Fein and the main Loyalist groups want a return to violence?
Northern Ireland police chief seeks 800 more officers as terror threat grows

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  #42  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:25 PM
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Will there be any police left in the country outside of Northern Ireland and Kent?
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  #43  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Sharkba1t View Post
The dissident groups have been around and active since the GFA was signed. Please explain why they would suddenly get so much worse, after a no deal Brexit?
Your message is making some incredible assumptions, in my opinion. If any changes are made to the Border posts they will be for customs checks. There will be no need for Military personnel to attend these posts. Maybe a few police, but nothing more.
I thought we were supposed to be taking back control of our borders.If our only land border is not able to stop immigration and is only there "for customs checks" then we have hardly taken back control of our borders have we?

In the event that we do have a hard border,the GFA is violated because it specifically states that there has to be regulatory alignment.A hard border splits Northern Ireland and Ireland,causing one half of Northern Ireland,to put it mildly,to be pretty upset.
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  #44  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Sharkba1t View Post
So many assumptions.
Do you really think that Sinn Fein and the main Loyalist groups want a return to violence?
I certainly think the New IRA do

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I certainly think the loyalist groups will respond.

Last edited by Hpalace; 12-09-2019 at 12:34 PM.
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  #45  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Sharkba1t View Post
The dissident groups have been around and active since the GFA was signed. Please explain why they would suddenly get so much worse, after a no deal Brexit?
Brexit does generate emotive and sometimes violent responses. You only have to read any BBS thread on Brexit / Farage / Johnson / Prorugation etc to realise that dozens of mild mannered, middle-class professionals in south London would willingly hang Brexiteers from lampposts.

It's why so many of us feel the need to declare that we voted Remain. As I did. Really.

Off now to get my flu jab before the surgery runs out
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  #46  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by SKATE View Post
Northern Ireland police chief seeks 800 more officers as terror threat grows

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We are never going to agree on this. I look forward to revisiting this issue in a few months time and i hope there are no deaths to discuss.
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  #47  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sharkba1t View Post
So many assumptions.
Do you really think that Sinn Fein and the main Loyalist groups want a return to violence?
No, but quite a lot of their members would be up for it. The Provos, UVF, UFF, INLA et al never went away. For some of them, a return to the days of violence would represent return to a 'golden age' (esp where crime, money, status and power are concerned).

You can bet that there are plenty of young men on each side who've heard the stories of the 'good old days', and have an unhealthy diet of anti-provo, anti-catholic, anti-loyalist, anti-British feed to them on a daily basis, that have lives that are dull, and surrounded by Murals of 'Great mens deeds'.

Among organised crime factions (which in Ireland is synonomous with Paramilitaries), the idea of a return of terrorism is probably very desirable (as it tends to focus Police resources onto terrorism).

It took Sinn Fein decades to convince the Provisional IRA to pursue an political campaign as a primary means of obtaining its objective.

The problems that fuelled the conflict on both sides, never really went away. They've just been simmering in the background.
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  #48  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Tomo View Post
Jesus christ.

Comparing football predictions to being told that we may have a shortage of medication are quite different things.
Sorry. Last time I ever make a crap joke.

Though in my defence I was making a quasi serious point using the veneer of levity. Experts are experts for a good reason (Lawrenson excepted).
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  #49  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Baffled Bob 2 View Post
Project Fear again. We voted Leave. Get over it.

The so called experts have been wrong in the past so I shall give these predictions short shrift.

I remember when we played Man City at the Etihad last season. All the so called experts said we'd get a trousers down tonking. And we went and blooming well won.

This means that even if Lawro predicts disaster for us up there this season then we will definitely win. Hopefully that's obvious. Even to dim witted Remoaners.
If, before the match against Man City last season, I'd said I was going to bet my house and all our family's savings on a Palace win, would you have said that was wise?
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  #50  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevek View Post
If, before the match against Man City last season, I'd said I was going to bet my house and all our family's savings on a Palace win, would you have said that was wise?
See the post above this one
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  #51  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevek View Post
If, before the match against Man City last season, I'd said I was going to bet my house and all our family's savings on a Palace win, would you have said that was wise?
Yes.
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  #52  
Old 12-09-2019, 12:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevek View Post
If, before the match against Man City last season, I'd said I was going to bet my house and all our family's savings on a Palace win, would you have said that was wise?
Simply and effectively put
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  #53  
Old 12-09-2019, 01:21 PM
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  #54  
Old 12-09-2019, 01:23 PM
dogstar721 dogstar721 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baffled Bob 2 View Post
Project Fear again. We voted Leave. Get over it.

The so called experts have been wrong in the past so I shall give these predictions short shrift.

I remember when we played Man City at the Etihad last season. All the so called experts said we'd get a trousers down tonking. And we went and blooming well won.

This means that even if Lawro predicts disaster for us up there this season then we will definitely win. Hopefully that's obvious. Even to dim witted Remoaners.
Thats magical thinking, and bears no relationship to rationality and logic.

Project Fear also seems to cover pretty much the same thing that the governments own Yellow Hammer documents do. Experts aren't always right, they do however tend to be more right, than wrong, over time. The whole 'Project Fear' handwaving dismissal has been worrying, because its entirely opposed to demonstrating why something is wrong, its just rejecting it out of hand.

There is no way to be certain what the actual outcome of Brexit will be, and it will be varied accroding to different areas and criteria.

And generally, the experts are right, we usually do get a trousers town tonking, in a game which we barely get out of our own half. You can't predict outcomes, but you can demonstrate likely outcomes. And you know why we beat them, because we went there and set up to play the best team in the league who regularly tonk us (ie we preparied, took all reasonable preperations to maybe get a point, or to restrict damage)

And we won. Thats a better metaphor for why you listen to experts, in this case our own ones (Roy Hodgeson and his staff).

This whole Brexiter 'so called experts' anti-intellectualism is absurdly dangerous, being the logic of conspiracy theoriests, anti-vaccers and lunatics
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  #55  
Old 12-09-2019, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevek View Post
If, before the match against Man City last season, I'd said I was going to bet my house and all our family's savings on a Palace win, would you have said that was wise?
If you went out an did it again this season, it wouldn't be wise either. Belief is a deadly thing, when even knowledge is falible.

Only very stupid people would gamble the future, on a hunch.
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  #56  
Old 12-09-2019, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
If you went out an did it again this season, it wouldn't be wise either. Belief is a deadly thing, when even knowledge is falible.

Only very stupid people would gamble the future, on a hunch.
Or the very rich
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  #57  
Old 12-09-2019, 01:28 PM
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Wondering how the Black Swan is going to feel when this leeks out.....apparently a cabinet minister was physically sick when they learned what it meant.....

Jolyon Maugham is preparing to break some legal news this arvo
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  #58  
Old 12-09-2019, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Baffled Bob 2 View Post
Sorry. Last time I ever make a crap joke.

Though in my defence I was making a quasi serious point using the veneer of levity. Experts are experts for a good reason (Lawrenson excepted).
I actually thought it was from a different poster who I'd assume would have posted that seriously, so apologies for missing the joke .
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  #59  
Old 12-09-2019, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Johnybegood View Post
Wondering how the Black Swan is going to feel when this leeks out.....apparently a cabinet minister was physically sick when they learned what it meant.....

Jolyon Maugham is preparing to break some legal news this arvo
Natalie Portman will be well p*ssed off
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  #60  
Old 12-09-2019, 02:55 PM
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Originally Posted by stevek View Post
This is what Michael Gove said this morning:

"The Yellowhammer documents are a worst-case scenario.
Nicola Sturgeon has said the Scottish government’s copy of the Yellowhammer no-deal Brexit scenario plans was marked “base scenario”, disputing claims by Michael Gove that the documents were a worst case scenario.
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