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  #1  
Old 13-09-2019, 07:09 PM
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Credit Crunch Mk II (2019 edition)

Perhaps someone who is smarter than me (with a GCSE in maths) can explain why the ECB has announced a new round of Quantitative Easing today and Trump is practically demanding the Fed to do the same? This is in the same week that Sajid Javid announces a rosy future for the UK economy and "end of austerity". What the ... is going on?? I thought Qe was only used in emergencies. Me thinks something is awry and the whole Brexit situation is distracting us from the truth that the global economy is up shit creek.
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Old 13-09-2019, 07:22 PM
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Yes.
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Old 13-09-2019, 07:23 PM
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The UK is about to self inflict with a Brexession, Trump want to pump up the economy for the elections next year, and yes the world economy is up shit creek.
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Old 13-09-2019, 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Neil 154 View Post
Perhaps someone who is smarter than me (with a GCSE in maths) can explain why the ECB has announced a new round of Quantitative Easing today and Trump is practically demanding the Fed to do the same? This is in the same week that Sajid Javid announces a rosy future for the UK economy and "end of austerity". What the ... is going on?? I thought Qe was only used in emergencies. Me thinks something is awry and the whole Brexit situation is distracting us from the truth that the global economy is up shit creek.
Basically fear has taken hold with many factors to blame, geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and Asia, trade wars escalating between the US/China and to a certain extent the EU, add as well the Italian government crisis and brexit headache. There was some "green shoots" in the earlier part of 2019 but with the former going on central banks are changing their monetary policy as growth is being revised down across the board, personally reckon its going to be like this for a while to come.
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Old 13-09-2019, 09:15 PM
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Nothing a good World War won't sort out.
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Old 13-09-2019, 09:36 PM
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Nothing a good World War won't sort out.
Mmm. Many a true word and all that......
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Old 20-09-2019, 06:12 AM
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Trump announces that US economy is envy of the world and the same day gets his wishes that the Fed prints more money . The timing is impeccable. But if the economy is so great, why does it need intervention of $200 bn? The cracks are widening. To view the link you have to Register or Login
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Old 20-09-2019, 08:01 AM
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It’s that time of year again. The old theory was that most problems appeared while the adults were away on their summer hols leaving their more excitable juniors in charge. Once they returned and pressed the right financial levers the markets generally got back on a even keel again.

Having said that we are way overdue another financial crisis.
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Old 20-09-2019, 08:38 AM
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We're past St Ledgers Day?

September is usually a key month though. The big honchos come back from their villas in Tuscany and Provence and look at the sales figures. If they're not going to make the end year target (and get their bonuses) they put on the brakes, as hard as necessary. Alternatively, if the budget is under spent they bring forward projects from next year to make next year's target easier.
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Old 20-09-2019, 09:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil 154 View Post
Trump announces that US economy is envy of the world and the same day gets his wishes that the Fed prints more money . The timing is impeccable. But if the economy is so great, why does it need intervention of $200 bn? The cracks are widening. To view the link you have to Register or Login
Because Trump knows if the economy tanks, he is proper f**ked
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Old 20-09-2019, 09:20 AM
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Test for recession no. 1:

Is everybody talking about an impending recession?
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Old 20-09-2019, 10:16 AM
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I'd say the real future is Japanification. A long slow retreat for housing & asset prices with long periods of deflation which will impact wage rises. It's going to be hard work paying off your debts without inflation so look out for 100 year mortgages. You'll need to save 20% of your wages to get a pension but at least you have cheap interest rates which pays for all those holidays, which you will have to reduce to achieve decarbonisation.
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Old 21-09-2019, 09:47 PM
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Have the Finance boys got all their short options in place? I suppose one of those ‘we’re all in it together’ situations will occur after that.
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Old 21-09-2019, 09:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
I'd say the real future is Japanification. A long slow retreat for housing & asset prices with long periods of deflation which will impact wage rises. It's going to be hard work paying off your debts without inflation so look out for 100 year mortgages. You'll need to save 20% of your wages to get a pension but at least you have cheap interest rates which pays for all those holidays, which you will have to reduce to achieve decarbonisation.
The talk is of asset prices going up here as interest rates are at minus 0.75% here.
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Old 23-09-2019, 02:29 AM
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Credit Crunch Mk II (2019 edition)

ECBs actions. Short version is the European banking system is ****ed. There are way too many banks a number of which have still to clean up their balance sheets from 2008. Sure they have sold off asset-based NPLs at a thumping loss but there are still a shed load of corporate loans they haven’t written off or sold perhaps because of the potential political cost of unemployment that could follow. Germany is a case in point. Numerous landesbanks and sparkasses yet two of the three national banks had to merge to avoid bankruptcy and what is left- Deutsche and Commerz are struggling.

QE isn’t the answer. Perhaps necessary after 08 to endure sufficient liquidity to keep the banks lending to each other but ultimately credit is finite. Perpetual QE just delays and indeed exacerbates the problem for when the music eventually stops. Great if you want to own assets. Shit if you are a worker. Partly responsible over the last decade for the polarisation we see
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Old 23-09-2019, 09:27 AM
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All we need now is a further rise in right wing populist parties run by crooks to consolidate the power of the wealthy.
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Old 23-09-2019, 09:46 AM
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Certainly, the coming European recession has weakened the EU's hand in Brexit negotiations. This European mess is going to get ugly.
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Old 23-09-2019, 01:50 PM
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Quote:
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Nothing a good World War won't sort out.
Saudi vs Iran would do, we could flog them a shit load of stuff to help them get on with it. Keeeerching.
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Old 23-09-2019, 02:45 PM
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Nothing a good World War won't sort out.

I agree. Send all the OAP's to fight each other and we'll solves a lot of problems in one go.
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Old 23-09-2019, 03:37 PM
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I agree. Send all the OAP's to fight each other and we'll solves a lot of problems in one go.
As long as it's soon - I've only got 7 years before I am one.
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