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General Palace Discussion General Palace talk - please keep transfer talk in the transfer forum.

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  #16701  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Billy Rhino View Post
Its not really that hard to understand, if Roy really was that unhappy with our transfer dealings then he would've done more than just a few grumpy comments in press conferences. If the rumours are true that he has turned down players then it shows he has at least some say in the transfers, and possibly even the final say (e.g. He definitely mentioned "we" when talking about us signing Sorloth).

The bloke is likely a multi-millionaire so im pretty sure he wouldnt be extending his contract if he was completely at odds wth our transfer dealings, and what real satisfaction would he get at his age and experience with just keeping us up each season?

How many managers wouldve resigned in the same situation?
Isn’t that very weird thinking in the circumstances?
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  #16702  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Billy Rhino View Post
Its not really that hard to understand, if Roy really was that unhappy with our transfer dealings then he would've done more than just a few grumpy comments in press conferences. If the rumours are true that he has turned down players then it shows he has at least some say in the transfers, and possibly even the final say (e.g. He definitely mentioned "we" when talking about us signing Sorloth).

The bloke is likely a multi-millionaire so im pretty sure he wouldnt be extending his contract if he was completely at odds wth our transfer dealings, and what real satisfaction would he get at his age and experience with just keeping us up each season?

How many managers wouldve resigned in the same situation?
Yeah, I understood what he was saying, thanks.
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  #16703  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Martin H View Post
Isn’t that very weird thinking in the circumstances?
Weird is a far more polite description than I could think of
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  #16704  
Old 01-08-2020, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by akinbiyifan View Post
Does that mean it is time for him to go then?
But you get the odd one like Sir Alex Wankerson who hangs around for decades and who even when he has retired and no longer managing is still managing to influence cup final referees on behalf of his old club.
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  #16705  
Old 01-08-2020, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by chateauferret View Post
There is at least a credible school of thought that suggests that expected goals is a poor model for measuring the quality of chances created by a team and this is still very much a matter of debate. xG isn't data; it's a calculation based on certain data.

To view the link you have to Register or Login

And if I were a premier league sports analyst then a) I would be using more refined and tailored methods than this to understand my players' performance and b) I sure as hell wouldn't be telling anyone what they were.

Here's a few things the metric doesn't account for:

- who the chance falls to
- how tired and fit that player is
- who the defenders are
- where the defenders are
- how tired and fit those players are
- how badly a team needs a goal or needs not to concede
- any psychological or environmental factors

The fact that it predicts a points variance for a team over 38 games that is something like 20 or 25 percent. less that what it actually achieved tells you more about the science involved than about the team.
Most of those criticisms are where critical thinking comes into play. For instance, teams who consistently over-perform their expected goals against tend to play deep blocks and have defenders throwing themselves in front of shots. Up until this season at least, Burnley were a prime example, and palace likely fall in to this category to a certain degree this season.

It’s just one of the best data tools at the moment, not the be all and end all.

Premier league sports analysts use third party services like Statsbomb for their data. Which is available to us plebs, some paywalled, some stuff not.

Last edited by CP-RJW; 01-08-2020 at 10:54 AM.
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  #16706  
Old 01-08-2020, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by chateauferret View Post
Or that "expected points" is a load of bollocks made up by journalists who can only talk about football by reducing it to numbers based on a top-heavy tower of ridiculous assumptions and guesses.
Gonzo is a big fan of XP and XG.
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  #16707  
Old 01-08-2020, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by chateauferret View Post
But you get the odd one like Sir Alex Wankerson who hangs around for decades and who even when he has retired and no longer managing is still managing to influence cup final referees on behalf of his old club.
People still moan about this.....we were 1-0 up with 15 minutes to play and then were playing against 10 men in extra time.
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  #16708  
Old 01-08-2020, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by CPFC_AwayDays View Post
People still moan about this.....we were 1-0 up with 15 minutes to play and then were playing against 10 men in extra time.
We were still playing against 11 men even when they had one sent off. Any palace fan who was there, or even watched the replay since that and thinks we weren’t cheated needs their head checked.
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  #16709  
Old 01-08-2020, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by CPFC_AwayDays View Post
People still moan about this.....we were 1-0 up with 15 minutes to play and then were playing against 10 men in extra time.
Oh, in that case it's OK for an ambassador for one of the teams to have tea and buns with the ref just before the game, right?
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  #16710  
Old 01-08-2020, 01:06 PM
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Oh, and the Wickham goal disallowed.
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  #16711  
Old 01-08-2020, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by west country boy View Post
Gonzo is a big fan of XP and XG.
Only when it suits whichever agenda he happens to be focussing his life around.
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  #16712  
Old 01-08-2020, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldtown Eagle View Post
Oh, and the Wickham goal disallowed.
Would have preferred this to have been given, that way we probably would have lost in normal time so I could have gotten home earlier.
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  #16713  
Old 01-08-2020, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by cpfc4evandeva View Post
Only when it suits whichever agenda he happens to be focussing his life around.
It is a pretty useful tool. Of course it has flaws but it is useful because if you are consistently outperforming it it generally means you are on an unsustainable run. We scored a similar amount of goals as we were predicted to this season, so the amount of goals we scored is not unsustainable [worryingly, given it was our worst goal scoring season in history]. It also helps disprove the myth that we are "missing chances", which was the case in 2018/19 but not now.

Where we are outperforming xG is in defence, CP-RJW highlighted one of the possible reasons why. The other likely reasons are goalkeeper and a small amount of luck. But either way, it is unlikely to be sustainable, at some point we will start conceding more goals, and as a result get less points.

xG showed that Watford would improve in the second half of this season, which they did [although not enough]. It also showed that Leicester were massively over performing and was proved right when they didn't sustain it. It showed that Man U would finish higher up the table than the position they were in at the start of the season, which again they did. It's definitely flawed but very useful.
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  #16714  
Old 01-08-2020, 05:39 PM
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I've just read an interesting (if you are as boring as I am) stat about London Premier League clubs and their point totals this year compared to 2018-19. Palace are the joint least shit with Chelsea - six points fewer than last season.

Other teams are as follows:

Spurs: -12
West Ham -13
Arsenal:-14.
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  #16715  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:04 PM
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Eddie Howe resigned
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  #16716  
Old 01-08-2020, 08:20 PM
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  #16717  
Old 02-08-2020, 08:07 PM
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Originally Posted by meee View Post
It is a pretty useful tool. Of course it has flaws but it is useful because if you are consistently outperforming it it generally means you are on an unsustainable run. We scored a similar amount of goals as we were predicted to this season, so the amount of goals we scored is not unsustainable [worryingly, given it was our worst goal scoring season in history]. It also helps disprove the myth that we are "missing chances", which was the case in 2018/19 but not now.

Where we are outperforming xG is in defence, CP-RJW highlighted one of the possible reasons why. The other likely reasons are goalkeeper and a small amount of luck. But either way, it is unlikely to be sustainable, at some point we will start conceding more goals, and as a result get less points.

xG showed that Watford would improve in the second half of this season, which they did [although not enough]. It also showed that Leicester were massively over performing and was proved right when they didn't sustain it. It showed that Man U would finish higher up the table than the position they were in at the start of the season, which again they did. It's definitely flawed but very useful.
Keep going for as long as you want, it's utter bollocks. It was probably made up by a couple of guys who hadn't had sex for a very long time.
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  #16718  
Old 02-08-2020, 08:12 PM
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Keep going for as long as you want, it's utter bollocks. It was probably made up by a couple of guys who hadn't had sex for a very long time.
Gonzo and glaziers fan?
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  #16719  
Old 02-08-2020, 09:09 PM
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Keep going for as long as you want, it's utter bollocks. It was probably made up by a couple of guys who hadn't had sex for a very long time.
Who presumably think that if you toss a fair coin six times and get heads six times, then the probability of getting heads next time is something other than 0.5.
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  #16720  
Old 09-08-2020, 10:10 AM
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