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  #79161  
Old 16-06-2021, 10:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
I really wish we had data to actually identify the number of hospital admissions that we directly due to Covid rather than nosocomial infections or those in for other reasons who test positive.
If we had that we probably would have been out of lockdown ages ago.
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  #79162  
Old 16-06-2021, 10:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Malarkey View Post
Suicides outnumbered Covid deaths again today, I'd imagine most of those were under 40s and a lot of those were because of lockdown in some way.
Meh.

Youíve got form.
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  #79163  
Old 16-06-2021, 10:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
I think having too much information can obscure the important statistics if you're not careful so your point about using properly is key. Do you think as a society we would have been better off had we continously collected PCR test data for every infectious disease out there.

I'd also say that we have a huge asymmetry of covid data vs everything else and I think that can lead to a fairly biased debate.
During a pandemic (or an epidemic) the answer is yes. More data is great. It allows you to track variables, mutations, and get a handle on what is happening.

I canít see an argument for less data?

That being said so far the data looks positive in the main. Iím hanging my prediction hat on this pandemic has done what most corona/flu pandemics do - last 18 months and die out.

Hopefully Iím right, if not Iíd better sort out my will.
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  #79164  
Old 16-06-2021, 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Wolfnipplechips View Post
Meh.

Youíve got form.
?
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  #79165  
Old 16-06-2021, 10:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
I think we should do what many other countries are reverting to - testing those with clinical symptoms of the disease as a means of confirming / denying if their symptoms are caused by this virus.

We are in back-to-front land where we make a +ve pcr the disease and bend symptoms to fit the test result.
Er, we are testing those with clinical symptoms (or at least they think they have). The rapid tests in schools (for example) arenít being counted (Iíd be happy to be proved wrong on this).

Or are you suggesting we are knocking on doors and giving pcr tests?
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  #79166  
Old 16-06-2021, 10:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philipw View Post
I thought the test numbers being reported included lateral flow as well as pcr?
I thought they didnít. Does anyone know?
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  #79167  
Old 16-06-2021, 11:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
I thought they didnít. Does anyone know?
From Govt dashboard.

"Number of people with at least one positive COVID-19 test result, either lab-reported or rapid lateral flow test (England only), by specimen date. Positive rapid lateral flow test results can be confirmed with PCR tests taken within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are not reported as cases. People tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test."

The way I read that - LFT positives are counted. If confirmatory PCR is negative then they may be retrospectively discounted.

As to the earlier question - undoubtedly we are testing many, many people without COVID-19 symptoms. Lots of people are required to do regular testing at work and school. It seems (understandably) anyone feeling 'a bit under the weather' will run a test to make sure.

The argument about more data is a valid one providing the data is giving you the information you think it is and is used judiciously.

Pre-COVID somebody would not routinely get a test for meningitis-causing streptococci twice a week, nor get one for a 'slight headache and sore throat'. But say you did. Even if it came back positive, if your symptoms did not progress and you shook off your illness in a few days then you'd not at any point be diagnosed with meningitis. However, if you presented to hospital with rampant fever, deleriousness, non-blanching rash, a stiff neck and aversion to light then you'd have a lumbar puncture test and a positive result for certain streptococci would be a diagnosis of menigitis. You would not bend the definition of what meningitis is to fit the result of the test.

At the start of the pandemic, I understood completely the aim of trying to chase down and assess where it is. If you are pursuing zero covid or are attempting suppression, I get why you would mass test. If in the absence of there being any evidence of a pandemic in terms of hospitals etc and with high vaccination rates and supposedly attempting to live with COVID then, no, our current testing strategy does not make sense.
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  #79168  
Old 16-06-2021, 11:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
From Govt dashboard.

"Number of people with at least one positive COVID-19 test result, either lab-reported or rapid lateral flow test (England only), by specimen date. Positive rapid lateral flow test results can be confirmed with PCR tests taken within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are not reported as cases. People tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test."

The way I read that - LFT positives are counted. If confirmatory PCR is negative then they may be retrospectively discounted.

As to the earlier question - undoubtedly we are testing many, many people without COVID-19 symptoms. Lots of people are required to do regular testing at work and school. It seems (understandably) anyone feeling 'a bit under the weather' will run a test to make sure.

The argument about more data is a valid one providing the data is giving you the information you think it is and is used judiciously.

Pre-COVID somebody would not routinely get a test for meningitis-causing streptococci twice a week, nor get one for a 'slight headache and sore throat'. But say you did. Even if it came back positive, if your symptoms did not progress and you shook off your illness in a few days then you'd not at any point be diagnosed with meningitis. However, if you presented to hospital with rampant fever, deleriousness, non-blanching rash, a stiff neck and aversion to light then you'd have a lumbar puncture test and a positive result for certain streptococci would be a diagnosis of menigitis. You would not bend the definition of what meningitis is to fit the result of the test.

At the start of the pandemic, I understood completely the aim of trying to chase down and assess where it is. If you are pursuing zero covid or are attempting suppression, I get why you would mass test. If in the absence of there being any evidence of a pandemic in terms of hospitals etc and with high vaccination rates and supposedly attempting to live with COVID then, no, our current testing strategy does not make sense.
How can you read that as valid when it specifically says

ď Positive rapid lateral flow test results can be confirmed with PCR tests taken within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are not reported as cases.Ē

Itís your quote mate
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  #79169  
Old 16-06-2021, 11:26 PM
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And why are we testing many many people without covid 19 symptoms? It’s not a pleasant experience so are people doing something very unpleasant for fun?
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  #79170  
Old 16-06-2021, 11:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
How can you read that as valid when it specifically says

“ Positive rapid lateral flow test results can be confirmed with PCR tests taken within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are not reported as cases.”

It’s your quote mate
Because the dashboard includes LFTs. If it only waited for LFTs to be confirmed by PCR then they would be PCR results and not LFT results. So by virtue of the fact that LFTs are included daily, one has to assume that a positive LFT reported online gets counted in that days figures. If the linked PCR test then comes back negative, it being retrospectively chalked off is the only way those few sentences on the PHE dashboard are compatible with each other. Unless people are sending in positive LFTs and not bothering to confirm with PCR.

And yes, a lot of people are testing regularly for work or hospitality reasons. Many are testing so that they are happier to visit elderly relatives etc too.
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  #79171  
Old 16-06-2021, 11:47 PM
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Here the data is broken down in a more granular fashion, clearly showing how cases are LFT, PCR and PCR-confirmed LFTs.



I think this would imply that, yes, LFTs are included in the daily counts as the dashboard says and so, yes, that will include the non-symptomatic testing that is going on en masse.
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  #79172  
Old 17-06-2021, 01:15 AM
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Yesterday here they removed all mask and social distancing requirements for all those vaccinated (Good luck enforcing that). Only places that still require all people to wear masks is public transport, medical (including doctor and dentist) and government buildings.

Today I went grocery shopping and would say that most people still wore masks, including me. I feel a bit like one of Pavlov's Dogs in all honesty. It has become automatic to put one on, and frankly it feels a bit odd not wearing one.

A bit of a generalization, but all but one of the people I saw not wearing a mask (there were not many) were people that looked well over 70. It was also odd that they all appeared miserable ****ers!

This afternoon I went to a hardware store, and pretty much the same story, again most people had on masks.

I think it's going to take a while for many people to break the habit. Or we are going to end up like Japan maybe, and always wear them.
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  #79173  
Old 17-06-2021, 02:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hedgehog View Post
Yesterday here they removed all mask and social distancing requirements for all those vaccinated (Good luck enforcing that). Only places that still require all people to wear masks is public transport, medical (including doctor and dentist) and government buildings.

Today I went grocery shopping and would say that most people still wore masks, including me. I feel a bit like one of Pavlov's Dogs in all honesty. It has become automatic to put one on, and frankly it feels a bit odd not wearing one.

A bit of a generalization, but all but one of the people I saw not wearing a mask (there were not many) were people that looked well over 70. It was also odd that they all appeared miserable ****ers!

This afternoon I went to a hardware store, and pretty much the same story, again most people had on masks.

I think it's going to take a while for many people to break the habit. Or we are going to end up like Japan maybe, and always wear them.
It's a California thing.
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  #79174  
Old 17-06-2021, 03:20 AM
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Originally Posted by big bad John View Post
It's a California thing.
I can't disagree with you there...
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  #79175  
Old 17-06-2021, 03:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Wolfnipplechips View Post
Meh.

Youíve got form.
He also used the word 'lockdown'.

None of the suicides could go for a drink in a beer garden and talk it out with a friend.
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  #79176  
Old 17-06-2021, 05:55 AM
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Originally Posted by PeterH View Post
He also used the word 'lockdown'.

None of the suicides could go for a drink in a beer garden and talk it out with a friend.
The damage was done before any socialising was back on the agenda.
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  #79177  
Old 17-06-2021, 06:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
Here the data is broken down in a more granular fashion, clearly showing how cases are LFT, PCR and PCR-confirmed LFTs.



I think this would imply that, yes, LFTs are included in the daily counts as the dashboard says and so, yes, that will include the non-symptomatic testing that is going on en masse.
Thanks. Iíll do a bbs rarity and accept I was wrong
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  #79178  
Old 17-06-2021, 06:45 AM
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2nd Vaccination News

The NHS website has been update to show you upcoming availability before you cancel your existing appointment.

I think you still need to go click through to cancel but you can now see availability before you confirm your cancellation. Can't test it myself as already had both.
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  #79179  
Old 17-06-2021, 06:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
I thought they didn’t. Does anyone know?
Government dashboard says total test numbers (ie numbers that have got to 1 million a day at times) include rapid lateral flow tests. Was that your question? Also separately shows lower PCR tests

To view the link you have to Register or Login

Last edited by Philipw; 17-06-2021 at 07:03 AM.
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  #79180  
Old 17-06-2021, 06:54 AM
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The dashboard says LFTs followed up by a negative PCr test are not counted, and multiple positive tests by the same person are counted once.

The total should be, as shown on the graph above:
  • Positive PCR tests (with no associated LFT)
  • Positive LFT (with no associated PCR)
  • Positive LFT (confirmed by PCR, so two tests but counted only once)
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