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  #1  
Old 31-12-2019, 04:36 PM
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Comfortable Mid-Table Calculator 2019/20 (with a hint of Relegation Avoidance)

I was dithering about doing this and then I saw Spike's thread which I felt was bound to lead to disappointment so thought I would do it -just to provide balance.

I have taken 47 points as a suitable relaxing total which is 20 more points from 18 games. Over the last ten years the highest total needed to finish 9th was 54 and the lowest 46. Conversely the highest total needed to finish 14th was 45 and the lowest 38. 47 puts us nicely in the middle and should be able to provide balance to - the gloom and euphoria each time we win/lose.

I have a feeling that we will not bring in anyone much in January- possibly a right back - and the injury situation is going to make the second half of the season rather more lean on the points front. That said even allowing for that the total seem manageable. As usual the results are not predictions but simply indications of the type of results we will need to end up somewhere between 9th and 14th.
Code:
Team                      Projected      Actual       Target +/-     Overall

Norwich (a)                  D             D            even           even    
Arsenal (h)                  D             D            even           even   
Man C (a)                    L             D             +1             +1
Southampton (h)              W             L             -3             -2
Sheffield Utd (h)            L             L            even            -2
Everton (a)                  L             L            even            -2
Newcastle (h)                W             W            even            -2
Brighton (a)                 D             W             +2            even
Watford (h)                  W             W            even           even
Bournemouth(a)               L
Liverpool (a)                L
Burnley  (h)                 W
Leicester (a)                L  
Chelsea (h)                  D
Aston Villa (a)              W
Man U (h)                    D
Wolves (a)                   L
Spurs (h)                    L
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Last edited by sw16girl; 01-03-2020 at 12:03 PM.
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Old 31-12-2019, 05:04 PM
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I may start the Relegation avoidance calculator just to complete the set, but typing out all those L's will depress me!
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Old 31-12-2019, 05:15 PM
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This is much more my thing than the European one. Thanks sw16girl

Although I will be honest, I am still thinking about the gap to the bottom 3 a lot more.

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Old 31-12-2019, 05:18 PM
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So if we lose at Norwich we're screwed? Worried now...
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Old 31-12-2019, 05:23 PM
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We have averaged 45 points a season since promotion. Not getting 50 plus after our start will be very disappointing.

Other than the Cup Final season when we only won 11 points we normally average 28 points in the second half of the season. The problem is that only happens when we have had a poor first half of the season.

Maybe this is the year when we break the half and half season curse.
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Old 01-01-2020, 04:15 PM
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We have averaged 45 points a season since promotion. Not getting 50 plus after our start will be very disappointing.

Other than the Cup Final season when we only won 11 points we normally average 28 points in the second half of the season. The problem is that only happens when we have had a poor first half of the season.

Maybe this is the year when we break the half and half season curse.
I am worried by the injuries and also think our results flatter us a little. If we do bring in some players then we can happily all decamp to Spike's thread but I didn't want us getting too excited. This is a very unexciting thread and expect it to be a quiet one but as usual it is for my benefit more than anything else
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Old 01-01-2020, 11:06 PM
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So on track for that comfortable but slightly boring (what luxury) finish. As suspected the injuries in defence are taking their toll.
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Old 02-01-2020, 12:28 AM
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I am worried by the injuries and also think our results flatter us a little. If we do bring in some players then we can happily all decamp to Spike's thread but I didn't want us getting too excited. This is a very unexciting thread and expect it to be a quiet one but as usual it is for my benefit more than anything else
Fully agree.
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Old 02-01-2020, 05:08 AM
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Well given our last 6 fixtures include Leicester, Chelsea, Man Utd, Spurs and wolves having 46 points as a target might put us >40 before that run begins.

Given the table so far this season 40 might not be enough so this target could be the ‘not going into the last day needing a result calculator’
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Old 02-01-2020, 07:39 AM
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5 teams below Palace are now odds on to be relegated

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I do find it strange the Sheffield Utd odds compared to ours. They are one point above us but 66/1 to go down whilst we are 20/1. Personally think we will finish comfortably above them.
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Old 02-01-2020, 08:05 AM
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I do find it strange the Sheffield Utd odds compared to ours. They are one point above us but 66/1 to go down whilst we are 20/1. Personally think we will finish comfortably above them.
The odds must change dramatically from game to game. Interesting.
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Old 02-01-2020, 09:33 AM
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Arsenal are at 500 -1 and are on one point less.
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Old 02-01-2020, 09:42 AM
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Whilst the points total of 28 after 21 games is good and better than I would have expected it is interesting to note that comparing this years results with corresponding matches last year ( replacing Fulham with Norwich, Huddersfield with Villa and Cardiff with Sheff United) that we are 3 points LOWER than last years total from these matches.
Further in the second half of season it will be difficult to repeat our wins last season at Eithiad, Molineux and King Power. Have to make up by getting more than last years points against teams like Bournemouth Brighton Watford Newcastle Everton even Spurs Arsenal Man U and Chelsea

Hopefully we will remain well clear of bottom 3 but with our current injuries I would be less confident about matching last years points total.
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Old 02-01-2020, 09:57 AM
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Sureagle

You are joking.

Palace will easily have their best ever season in the Premier League and their highest points total this season.

Currently we are 3 points off of 6th place and 8 points and 8 goals better off than 3rd bottom Bournemouth who are in free-fall and losing on a regular basis.

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Old 02-01-2020, 10:03 AM
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Sureagle

You are joking.

Palace will easily have their best ever season in the Premier League and their highest points total this season.

Currently we are 3 points off of 6th place and 8 points and 8 goals better off than 3rd bottom Bournemouth who are in free-fall and losing on a regular basis.

COYP
'easily'?

There's no way anyone can predict that.

Hope that we do, yes.
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Old 02-01-2020, 10:04 AM
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Palace are actually only 2 points behind 6th place but due to our inferior goal difference are in effect 3 points behind.

The same as we are really 9 points clear of 3rd bottom Bournemouth due to our superior goal difference .

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Old 02-01-2020, 10:14 AM
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Palace only need another 22 points from 17 games to have our highest ever Premier League points total.

We are well on course to do that as we have had a great 2019 and were the 7th best team with the 3rd best away record in that calendar year winning 57 points from 38 games.

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Old 02-01-2020, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
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Whilst the points total of 28 after 21 games is good and better than I would have expected it is interesting to note that comparing this years results with corresponding matches last year ( replacing Fulham with Norwich, Huddersfield with Villa and Cardiff with Sheff United) that we are 3 points LOWER than last years total from these matches.
Further in the second half of season it will be difficult to repeat our wins last season at Eithiad, Molineux and King Power. Have to make up by getting more than last years points against teams like Bournemouth Brighton Watford Newcastle Everton even Spurs Arsenal Man U and Chelsea

Hopefully we will remain well clear of bottom 3 but with our current injuries I would be less confident about matching last years points total.
Agreed - I'm tracking the same alongside a prediction which I amend with actual results to predict our finishing total. I have us as 1 point off last years corresponding fixtures so maybe I have matched the promoted teams with relegated differently?

I'm predicting finishing on 48 points which is 1 below last year. Still very healthy and whilst many predict the staying up target will be higher than usual that would make the leagure more compacted and therefore allow us to achieve a higher position for our points total.

But who knows - we have a lot of injuries and fatigue at the moment, the break (I assume a second string for the cup) could be pivotal.
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Old 02-01-2020, 10:15 AM
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Palace are actually only 2 points behind 6th place but due to our inferior goal difference are in effect 3 points behind.

The same as we are really 9 points clear of 3rd bottom Bournemouth due to our superior goal difference .

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Cheers hd

That league table nonsense always confuses me

Glad you’re able to shed some light on it

Keep up the good work
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Old 02-01-2020, 10:33 AM
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Agreed - I'm tracking the same alongside a prediction which I amend with actual results to predict our finishing total. I have us as 1 point off last years corresponding fixtures so maybe I have matched the promoted teams with relegated differently?

I'm predicting finishing on 48 points which is 1 below last year. Still very healthy and whilst many predict the staying up target will be higher than usual that would make the leagure more compacted and therefore allow us to achieve a higher position for our points total.

But who knows - we have a lot of injuries and fatigue at the moment, the break (I assume a second string for the cup) could be pivotal.
Here is my comparison of this years points Vs points in corresponding match last season. 0 mean no difference, negative number means less points than last year and positive number= more points than last year.


Everton H 0
Sheff U A = Cardiff -3
Man U A +2
Spurs A 0
Aston Villa H = Huddersfield 0
Wolves H +1
Norwich H =Fulham 0
Arsenal A -2
West Ham A +3
Chelsea A 0
Man C H 0
Liverpool H 0
Leicester H -3
Burnley A 0
Brighton H +1
Watford +1
Bournemouth 0
Newcastle -3
West Ham H +2.
Net after 19 -1

Southampton 0
Norwich = Fulham -2

Net Difference is - 3 after 21 games.
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