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  #93361  
Old 14-01-2022, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
Generally no.



Generally no. If however I have to weigh up the likelihood and probability it kind of goes along the lines of which is more likely to cause a pandemic? What is the most probable source? A) a lab leak or B) nature

We haven’t had a lab leaked pandemic before but nature is responsible for lots of pandemics and billions of viruses.

Which is more likely to cause a corona virus pandemic? A) a lab investigating corona viruses or B) nature in an area where there are a lot of natural corona viruses and one mutated as they have done in the past.

I’m a B on both questions. There are labs in western Africa investigating Ebola. Why has no one pointed to the labs there?

I was very open as to how it first started, a Animal to human transfer seemed possible as has happened in the past or it could have been accidentally released from a lab. Indeed the UK's security services have deemed that it is a feasible option.

Then comes the behaviour of China, resisting all attempts from international organisations to investigate the matter - why? When the WHO finally get people into China they do not have free access, their trip is disrupted and they struggle to get answers - why? Then the WHO suggest that a second stage of the investigation should take place and it should look at local labs and China rejects any further investigation - why?

They say actions speak louder than words and the actions of China are at best those of a nation not interested in co-operating globally and at worst are that of a country undertaking a huge cover-up, with several options inbetween.
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  #93362  
Old 14-01-2022, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by se1eagle View Post
I don't really see that determining the origin of Covid gets us anywhere.

Could it plausibly have transferred from animals? Yes.
Could it plausibly have been a lab leak? Yes.
Does it help us to combat COVID if we know which? No.

Suppose it was proven beyond all doubt to be a lab leak, then what?

Would China admit it? No.
Is China going to pay reparations to the world? No.
Are we going to go to war with China? No. (Unless we're insane)
Is China going to overhaul its lab procedures any more than it would already? No.
Is hatred and anti-Chinese sentiment going to increase? Yes.
Is the world going to be better off as a result? No.

They wouldn't have to. Countries would just cancel existing debt owed to China. Not something that would work by a single country but if the rest of the world said 'forget what we owe you' China would be ****ed.
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  #93363  
Old 14-01-2022, 03:57 PM
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In any case, I'm not sure 'China wouldn't admit it anyway' is a good reason not to find out the origin. Surely understanding the origin of the virus is important and will give lessons to be learnt to prevent or handle future pandemics?
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  #93364  
Old 14-01-2022, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Philipw View Post
Fair enough - not been there but are these areas as densely populated as the big Uk cities? I always thought that even the properties in the Greater Sydney area were more spaced out than London, but happy to be corrected if wrong.
Greater Sydney has a population of 5,367,139 in a square area of 12,368sq km
Greater Melbourne has a population of 5,078,000 in a square area of 9,992sq km
Greater Brisbane has a population of 2,560,720 in a square area of 15,842sq km

Greater London has a population of 8,908,000 in a square area of 1,569sq km
Birmingham Metropolitan area has a population of 1,200,000 in a square are of 600sq km

In short Australian cities and metropolitan areas are a lot more spread out than UK Cities.
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  #93365  
Old 14-01-2022, 04:12 PM
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Originally Posted by stevek View Post
In any case, I'm not sure 'China wouldn't admit it anyway' is a good reason not to find out the origin. Surely understanding the origin of the virus is important and will give lessons to be learnt to prevent or handle future pandemics?
Or more importantly tighter control on how secure these bio labs are on a world wide basis.

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  #93366  
Old 14-01-2022, 04:19 PM
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Or more importantly tighter control on how secure these bio labs are on a world wide basis.

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Indeed - that's what I meant about prevention.
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  #93367  
Old 14-01-2022, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by GreatGonzo View Post
They wouldn't have to. Countries would just cancel existing debt owed to China. Not something that would work by a single country but if the rest of the world said 'forget what we owe you' China would be ****ed.
And you think that would be a good thing?
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  #93368  
Old 14-01-2022, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by stevek View Post
In any case, I'm not sure 'China wouldn't admit it anyway' is a good reason not to find out the origin. Surely understanding the origin of the virus is important and will give lessons to be learnt to prevent or handle future pandemics?
What lessons would we learn? China would need to admit it and provide a full root cause analysis that the rest of the world could learn from - is that really likely?

I think any potential benefits of being able to pin the outbreak on China would be far, far outweighed by the incredible risk to world security that such a discovery would bring
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  #93369  
Old 14-01-2022, 08:26 PM
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Hospital discharge to care homes becoming a major issue. I think around 90% of all homes are in ‘outbreak’ (defined as 2+ covid cases). This precludes admissions unless arms are twisted with the local authority. The only positive is it means that number of covid patients in hospital is therefore artificially/temporarily overstated.

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  #93370  
Old 16-01-2022, 08:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevek View Post
In any case, I'm not sure 'China wouldn't admit it anyway' is a good reason not to find out the origin. Surely understanding the origin of the virus is important and will give lessons to be learnt to prevent or handle future pandemics?
Totally this.

One week after anyone on here had even heard of this virus, the relevant American scientists were already communicating with each other that they couldn’t see how this developed nature and could very much see how the lab could produce it. They then decided to feed to the media that such thinking is a conspiracy theory.

In my mind that is a cover up and quite frankly I’m surprised BBS’ers think being lied to about this is absolutely fine and the right thing to do.
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  #93371  
Old 16-01-2022, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by GreatGonzo View Post
They wouldn't have to. Countries would just cancel existing debt owed to China. Not something that would work by a single country but if the rest of the world said 'forget what we owe you' China would be ****ed.
Um. And when they wanted to borrow again? Removing China as a lender from the world debt market is probably not the greatest idea
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  #93372  
Old 16-01-2022, 08:26 AM
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Hospital discharge to care homes becoming a major issue. I think around 90% of all homes are in ‘outbreak’ (defined as 2+ covid cases). This precludes admissions unless arms are twisted with the local authority. The only positive is it means that number of covid patients in hospital is therefore artificially/temporarily overstated.

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Add lack of care staff in to the mix as well
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  #93373  
Old 16-01-2022, 08:54 AM
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Fair enough - not been there but are these areas as densely populated as the big Uk cities? I always thought that even the properties in the Greater Sydney area were more spaced out than London, but happy to be corrected if wrong.
I think the more relevant issue is around unavoidable transport routes hence why Belgium, north eastern France, SE England and the Czech/ German border have had such high case numbers. South Essex and also the A2 corridor are packed with crowded parcel, food distribution, spare parts and retailer warehouses that stayed open whilst millions of others were isolating. Hard to avoid contagion with staff in crowded conditions and lorries coming every day from multiple destinations.
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  #93374  
Old 16-01-2022, 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Philipw View Post
Hospital discharge to care homes becoming a major issue. I think around 90% of all homes are in ‘outbreak’ (defined as 2+ covid cases). This precludes admissions unless arms are twisted with the local authority. The only positive is it means that number of covid patients in hospital is therefore artificially/temporarily overstated.

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Mrs NKE was called in this morning on her day off to do a 12 hour additional shift in a care home. The government really must find a way to ensure those staff (who have been amongst the biggest heroes of the pandemic) are rewarded properly. As others far more highly paid fled their workplaces at the start of the pandemic they stood their ground and carried on working.
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Old 16-01-2022, 04:18 PM
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Add lack of care staff in to the mix as well
yep, still a problem, albeit getting slightly better. Around 10% staff absence of which just over half covid
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  #93376  
Old 16-01-2022, 04:31 PM
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Mrs NKE was called in this morning on her day off to do a 12 hour additional shift in a care home. The government really must find a way to ensure those staff (who have been amongst the biggest heroes of the pandemic) are rewarded properly. As others far more highly paid fled their workplaces at the start of the pandemic they stood their ground and carried on working.
Totally agree. The key problem is the amount that local authorities pay for care. On average around £600 per week, i.e. £85 per day. And remember is for 24 hour care (carers and nurses), full board, single room (mostly ensuite), excursions, activities and all the business support functions. Those who self pay effectively end up subsidising the local authority residents. There is an argument that the pure private operators could pay a higher rate to their staff (they already pay a higher rate than local authority homes) but there aren't that many of them - and it would put even more pressure on local authority home resourcing as they would struggle to compete. On a positive note, there are signs that things are changing, ie higher rates and higher wages - but, imo, some local authorities (particularly in some London boroughs and North East England) wont be able to stop themselves from insisting on uneconomic prices.

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Old 16-01-2022, 04:41 PM
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Mrs NKE was called in this morning on her day off to do a 12 hour additional shift in a care home. The government really must find a way to ensure those staff (who have been amongst the biggest heroes of the pandemic) are rewarded properly. As others far more highly paid fled their workplaces at the start of the pandemic they stood their ground and carried on working.
^^^^
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Old 16-01-2022, 08:39 PM
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Mrs NKE was called in this morning on her day off to do a 12 hour additional shift in a care home. The government really must find a way to ensure those staff (who have been amongst the biggest heroes of the pandemic) are rewarded properly. As others far more highly paid fled their workplaces at the start of the pandemic they stood their ground and carried on working.
Well done madam, Mrs NKE, I salute you
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Old 16-01-2022, 08:43 PM
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She’s just got home and now has to put up with my cooking.
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Old 16-01-2022, 09:29 PM
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She’s just got home and now has to put up with my cooking.

Hats off to Mrs NKE and all the other underpaid care home staff… absolute heroes
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