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  #401  
Old 07-07-2010, 03:08 PM
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I must say seeing Holland at 2.6 does make me slightly concerned as to what price Uruguay would have been!!

May well do the same Herts especially if the price is available in running and the game is scrappy

Up to 20 green on Spain in the two other 'to qualify' markets, thinking that as my main fixed odds bet is Spain at 2.7 I should maybe move that green to Germany...
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  #402  
Old 07-07-2010, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
If I have understood it right Andy profits from this bet whether there are injury time goals or not so long as he has the correct score at 90 minutes.
That's correct and the more scores you can get in the book the better chance you have of hitting one. Saying that SJ seem to have got wise to it now....only took 60+ games, as I was only able to use 1-0 last night (was looking good for about 15 mins!) and it seems tonights game will be the first in about 15 that I won't be able to use this strategy.

I haven't yet hit th dream sceario of having the correct score at 90 mins and then a goal being scored seconds after, before I have time to back back, still mustn't be greedy!!

I also use it combined with the Bsq (and Beet365) offer you mention, but be careful max refund is only 250. Bet365 do the same offer but no limit on the refund (well not beyond your the max stake). They also refund on HT/FT FGS, AGS, LGS and SC if the result is 0-0.

I've played a bit on the HT/FT but that price has gone. It's still very do able using Klose AGS at 3.0 though and with the short price can be done to large stakes.
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  #403  
Old 07-07-2010, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
I must say seeing Holland at 2.6 does make me slightly concerned as to what price Uruguay would have been!!

May well do the same Herts especially if the price is available in running and the game is scrappy

Up to 20 green on Spain in the two other 'to qualify' markets, thinking that as my main fixed odds bet is Spain at 2.7 I should maybe move that green to Germany...
Sounds sensible as I'm not certain Spain will qualify.
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  #404  
Old 07-07-2010, 03:49 PM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
Sounds sensible as I'm not certain Spain will qualify.
So I moved it...then moved it back again, Spain are going to qualify!!

(you just know they're not now...)
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  #405  
Old 07-07-2010, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
Don't listen to us then you know you should bet with your head not your hert.
Is the correct answer

Do you think it will confuse Finbar if I told him I was in Beds now
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  #406  
Old 07-07-2010, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
Just found another one similar to the offer made by PP. Blue Square are offering you your money back on any correct score if any WC match finishes 0-0. Can currently back 1-0 Spain at 15/2 with BSQ and then lay at 8.8 maybe 8.6 on Betfair.If you lay 0-0 at 9.6 you can guarantee a profit whatever happens.

Maths below!

100 at 15/2 gives 750 profit

96.75 laid on 1-0 Spain at 8.8 gives 91.91[assuming 5% commission] or a loss of 754.65
10.65 laid on 0-0 at 9.6 gives 10.11 after commission or a loss of 91.59

So if it finishes at any score apart from 0-0 or 1-0 Spain you make 2.02.

If it finishes 0-0 you get your stake back win 96.75 [virtually no commission as you have lost on BF] and lose 91.59.

If it finishes 1-0 you win 750 with BSQ lose 754.65 on the lay of 1-0 but make 10.11 on the lay of 0-0.

Only a few quid I know but it it's probably more than I will make from the Who Qualifies market!
Managed to win 7.54 as I laid two other scores off on Betfair.
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  #407  
Old 08-07-2010, 08:23 AM
N Herts Eagle N Herts Eagle is offline
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11 in a row and now to retire from the World Cup market with just over 40% profit. I am out Saturday and drinking the winnings on Sunday. Last night added anothe 70p to the winnings pot. Now I might be able to afford some crisps to go with the beer.

Finbar there are a few small differences to the system than laying 0-0 the prime one being with a bank of 25 I needed to take a minimal hit if I lost on the 0-0 markets the usual odds are roughly at the start of a game 9-1 so a lay bet that failed would cost me 18 way to much of a percentage hit to the bank. I have been lucky in some respects that I have avoided the one 0-0 since the qualification stage. Howevr this way there a re opportunities to increase the winnings. When I am feeling like a little light relief I will work out the percentages but my quick figures would suggest if I just laid 0-0 at 9-1 for 11 games I would have made 22 but at a risk of 18 . This way for the maxiumn risk of 7 ( Spain v Paraquay) I made 11. It always was supposed to be a small risk small profit approach

Anyway what I am interested in now is who did Finbar finish up on on the Qualification market. :-)
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  #408  
Old 08-07-2010, 08:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N Herts Eagle
Anyway what I am interested in now is who did Finbar finish up on on the Qualification market. :-)
Germany....

I decided to up my bet on Spain (at 2.59 with Betdaq to win in 90mins) by 30 so figured the 25 green on Germany would pay for it in the event that that lost, did try to transfer it back at 1.8 early on but the price soon went to 1.7 so I left it on Germany. Wish I had stuck to my guns but pretty sure I did the right thing bettingwise in the end and that green stopped me from laying imy stake off after the goal

There is no 'to win trophy' for the final annoyingly, only 'same' markets as the overall winner are 'which groups will make final' and 'top European teams', the former has almost zero liquity and the latter I fear will not have enough but I'll keep an eye on it, unless my I'm being blind or my phone isn't displaying it, will check on line later.

Amazed at the dutch price in running, I backed them for 300 at 2.62 at half time, laid it at 2.58 a few mins later. I assumed that if Germany scored the price would go down to 2.4ish and if Spain scored it would go up to 2.8ish, in the end it moved to 2.7 but then back to 2.6 and now settled at 2.64-2.66.

I've laid them at 2.62 and will hopefully back them back at 2.66 to give me a 22 green on Spain, have backed Holland at 11/1 so trying to get as much green on Spain as possible over the next few days
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  #409  
Old 08-07-2010, 09:06 AM
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Finbar I should have guessed there goes my drink. ......

I am off to research the golf market I did have a look at the US Open last day market and made a small 80p. It was strange watching the odds fluctuate wildly after each shot. However the more famous the player the more the money was placed on them. Big Phil was way to short for someone 4 shots behind. Tiger Woods the same.

The other issue is that TV coverage is not always live anyone with TV' which alows you to watch 4 channels at once and the red button will have a better idea of whats happening and a better chance on the market.

In snooker it was very evident you could watch the market change before the shot was taken on the TV coverage.
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  #410  
Old 08-07-2010, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted by N Herts Eagle
Finbar I should have guessed there goes my drink. ......

I am off to research the golf market I did have a look at the US Open last day market and made a small 80p. It was strange watching the odds fluctuate wildly after each shot. However the more famous the player the more the money was placed on them. Big Phil was way to short for someone 4 shots behind. Tiger Woods the same.

The other issue is that TV coverage is not always live anyone with TV' which alows you to watch 4 channels at once and the red button will have a better idea of whats happening and a better chance on the market.

In snooker it was very evident you could watch the market change before the shot was taken on the TV coverage.
Yep a lot depends on the stream you have, during the Masters the BBC were about 30 seconds behind the action making in running betting impossible. Though for most sport the bbc is usually as fast as it gets. Pretty easy to tell the lag but for snooker it's normally very small making it good for in running betting.

Your spot on about tiger and phil being too short most of the time, unfortunately they are both capable of some amazing runs of birdies but they can catch you out.

I've backed the Molinaris (Eduardo started brilliantly), Jiminez, MacDowell and Quiros for today, wouldn't have bothered normally but work is slow so fancy a distraction
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  #411  
Old 08-07-2010, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by herts_palace
Have put in a request to lay Spain @1.95 in the To Qualify market for 200 risking a loss and win of 190[after commission].Then backed them to win the cup @3.35 for 185. So if they go out tomorrow I make 5 - otherwise I should be able to make money provided they are less than about 1.95 to win the thing in the final.
Well despite being well out with my original calculations have now laid Spain at 1.60 for a small profit - under 2!

Like Fin I also backed Netherlands to win the trophy at 2.6 then 2.62 then 2.66. Have now got 300 riding on them at an average of 2.63 with a view to laying it off when the prices reflect the ability of the teams. If it doesn't drop will just have to red up I guess.
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  #412  
Old 08-07-2010, 11:29 AM
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Traded out of that for another 3 green, trying to get holland matched for a lay at 2.62 as I can imagine the money coming for Spain more than Holland, lots of small trades is what am aiming for, will look at the overs and see if that's possible to get matched on both sides on, Champs league final was great for that though I think this one could be a little more volatile...
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  #413  
Old 11-07-2010, 10:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
Well despite being well out with my original calculations have now laid Spain at 1.60 for a small profit - under 2!

Like Fin I also backed Netherlands to win the trophy at 2.6 then 2.62 then 2.66. Have now got 300 riding on them at an average of 2.63 with a view to laying it off when the prices reflect the ability of the teams. If it doesn't drop will just have to red up I guess.
Well the price just kept going out. Managed to get some laid off at 2.62 but I left the rest to ride and eventually laid it all off for a very small loss. At one stage the Holland price touched 3.25! Overall I made 6.50 from this market but that was all a result of the semi final games. Not one of my more successful ventures and an early goal in the final would have been a disaster.
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  #414  
Old 17-07-2010, 07:46 AM
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Had a great result yesterday though not sure if it counts as trading or gambling. McIllroy was at 4.9 after a few holes of his round yesterday, it was clear the wind was starting to get up and I just could not see any significant downside of laying him for my entire betfair bank, so laid him for 128, was going to leave it a hole or two to see how he was coping. He soon went out to 6.0, then just kept bogeying hole after hole, backed him back for 18 at 55.0 in the end. Kept waiting for one more hole to back him back but his price kept drifting! Might back more on him today, looks like he might have the best of the conditions and the leaders the worst of them
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Old 18-07-2010, 12:47 PM
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Had a great result yesterday though not sure if it counts as trading or gambling. McIllroy was at 4.9 after a few holes of his round yesterday, it was clear the wind was starting to get up and I just could not see any significant downside of laying him for my entire betfair bank, so laid him for 128, was going to leave it a hole or two to see how he was coping. He soon went out to 6.0, then just kept bogeying hole after hole, backed him back for 18 at 55.0 in the end. Kept waiting for one more hole to back him back but his price kept drifting! Might back more on him today, looks like he might have the best of the conditions and the leaders the worst of them
Well I'd say it was gambling more than trading. But hey who cares you made a good call and used your knowledge of a sport. However if you back him again then perhaps it becomes trading! Having now read your post fully I think it was trading.
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Old 20-07-2010, 09:44 AM
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Also put all my green on Oosthuisen after round 2 to make him 299 green, unfortunately I greened out at 150ish after round 3. Have a good bank now to start the new footy season with and try out some strategies
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Old 03-08-2010, 12:55 PM
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OK going to track all my trading bets again, will probably put most of them up here too. Have been targetting the start of the Premier league as the time to start doing this intelligently again so will see how I go, hoping for 7-10% profit on bank per week.

Trying to get Chelsea matched at 2.56ish for 400 or so, convinced they'll trade shorter than that especially once people see Drogba and Cech are fit (should play 45mins against Hamburg), had 130 matched so far. Don't see the price drifting past 2.6
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Old 03-08-2010, 01:03 PM
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Are you still going with your over 1.5 strategy that you posted earlier in this thread Fin..?
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Old 03-08-2010, 01:13 PM
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Am thinking of just doing that with Barcelona / Madrid games where if you can get matched at the right price you should be able to make 1%ish by laying off at one tick lower

Am looking at a few ways to trade but probably come up with too many!

Will see how i go and which ones have promise, the more risky ones I'll probably do on Betdaq so as not to ruin my Betfair balance

These were the ones I identified, first figure is 'how safe' the market should be (5 being very safe), second figure being how profitable (5 being very profitable). Numbers haven't had too much thought put into them, probably find out over time

All these are pre event or mid event when there is nothing going on to avoid big swings

Market / Safe? / Profit expectation

Identify a wrong price before it corrects itself 2 5
Back at a price and wait for big backers to bring it in shortly before an event (e.g. Phil Taylor match) 4 3
Back and then lay confident it won't drift / or vice versa owing to a big blocker 3 2
Get matched on the short side with a view to backing/laying an inbetween price 5 1
Trade on both sides of a solid price 3 3
Wait for a price to change in between events 2 3
under / over 1.5 and 3.5 goals, identify prices which won't drift 4 2
Get a price before it changes after injury / illness news 3 3
Get on a bandwangon early 3 3
Trade big tournament winner market before a final where market is actually driven by match winner 4 4
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Old 05-08-2010, 08:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Trying to get Chelsea matched at 2.56ish for 400 or so, convinced they'll trade shorter than that especially once people see Drogba and Cech are fit (should play 45mins against Hamburg), had 130 matched so far. Don't see the price drifting past 2.6
Man United win 7-0
Chelsea lose 2-1

not good for me!!

450 at average odds of 2.58, currently 2.68-2.70 so I could get out for a loss of 20, not the start I was hoping for! With the fact that the Premiership hasn't started I'll leave this one in the hope it doesn't drift any further, quite possible that if Drogba and Cech are named in the starting line up that the price could come in to a point where I might break even.

Actually I see Cech played no part last night so maybe he won't play on Sunday and I should get out now while I can before they drift even further... tricky one
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