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  #1121  
Old 10-03-2014, 12:22 AM
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Match rained off, very annoying, oh well it's a lesson to check the 'Completed Match' market, can also be a great one to trade. Was over GBP 250k matched on that when I crashed out last night, compared to GBP 280k on the match result market, it's a very popular one when there is rain about!
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  #1122  
Old 16-03-2014, 10:22 AM
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Not been a great few days, some trading out of boredom, some bad trading, one not getting a start time right (then being greedy about it) and a few decent trades.

Since the above screenshots I've made GBP 8.39

Main error was thinking the Roos vs Eels started at 7.30pm (as advertised on Fox Sport, Eastern time, I'm on the East!!). Actual start time was 6.30pm, only had a smallish liability of GBP 150 (green of GBP 650ish), had a feeling the Eels might not be too bad this year so let it ride, error, they got totally spanked and I did well (got lucky more like) to salvage GBP 66 for a loss of GBP 84.

Got involved with Prem League, was doing ok till the liquidity went crazy nearer kick off

Now that the cricket world cup is under way (well the pre big team games are) I can hopefully hit my March target and not get involved with sports that aren't so profitable. I do think AFL and NRL will be good this year though

Here is the March summary so far, doesn't include the Hong Kong vs Nepal match which isn't going very well... My target is to have a bank of GBP 3835 by the end of March, so need GBP 200 more, confident...ish

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a few screenshots

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  #1123  
Old 16-03-2014, 12:48 PM
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20/20 World Cup off to a flyer

Backed Hong Kong at 1.54 for GBP 1111, laid off at 1.51 and 1.52, very very shortly after being matched there was a big drift which I latched on to at 1.53 and 1.54 for GBP 888, backed back at 1.59, then laid again at 1.6 when a big lay of Hong Kong came in (so I laid in front of it). Traded out at 1.62 (or the equivalent on the other side). Had a feeling the price would come in again which it did to 1.58 but was never confident enough and happy enough with my GBP 60 win

With 2 matches a day I can hopefully have a few of these in the next 2 1/2 weeks

Final position
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Here you can see the drift which is where I made most of the profit (GBP 20 made on the initial trade, GBP 40 on the drift)

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  #1124  
Old 26-03-2014, 10:47 AM
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Well, not posted for a while on here, still going but had a horrific run of trades, then got a chunk of it back but by no means all. Still in profit in March but a fair bit behind where I was.

My disasters happened in cricket and NRL, the main two on the same night, St Paddys day when I was out on the lash, most / all of the damage was done before i went out though so can't blame the Guiness

Will post up the monthly p&l at next week when March comes to an end, my GBP 5000 target is looking quite a way away now, going to try not to chase as I think that's what got me in trouble in the first place. Will post up screenshots in the next few days

Anyway just thought I'd put up on here where things are at considering my week or so without posting.

I am using my other Betfair account to dabble in golf trading, just a bit of fun for now but will put up on here if anything good happens (and not bother if anything bad happens!). Might also use it for other sports, especially football.
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  #1125  
Old 29-03-2014, 05:08 AM
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ok time to post up about the horrific run I had, GBP 335 lost in 3 days. Since then I've not had a loser and have recovered GBP 225 of that, it was still a bit of a kick in the nuts and has put a big questionmark over my GBP 5k target by June

Here is March so far, GBP 170 in profit which all things considered is a good result

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So here are the shockers, in chronological order...

Roos vs Eels
Actually fancied the Eels to do ok, my bet wasn't matched by the time it started my bet wasn't matched, then the Roosters totally over ran the Eels, having tried to back back at 1.26ish I eventually traded out backing the Roos at 1.1, only matched when the Eels looked certain to score a try, then didn't. Was a bad result but had a bit of a gamble which am liable to do from time to time...

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Ireland vs Zimbabwe, just horrible and had I not been drunk could have been a lot worse (a few hundred pounds worse...)

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The same drunken night (St Paddys day) was the Bulldogs vs the Sharks

Gave myself a slim chance of a get out, the Sharks lost 36-0 or something like that so was never likely to happen!!

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and finally Ireland vs UAE, actually can't remember a lot about this one, think I was pretty fed up with trading at this point! Again gave myself a slim chance of a get out but to no avail

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  #1126  
Old 29-03-2014, 05:17 AM
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So what do I learn from that, not sure a great deal. NRL needs to be done to lower stakes I think, just not the liquidity, means I'm guessing a lot of the time.

I've pretty much kept doing what I do since, possibly being more conservative. I think the key is to try to get a small green before going for bigger ones.

Anyway a few nicer screenshots of trades I've done since the ones in the post above...

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  #1127  
Old 29-03-2014, 05:23 AM
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Today I've so far been trading the NZ vs Netherlands match, so far have a green on NZ of GBP 20, now hoping to get matched at 1.12 as there is plenty of money (GBP 98k) to stop the price coming in below 1.11, clearly not impossible but a nice wall nonetheless.

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From these bets

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  #1128  
Old 01-04-2014, 08:38 AM
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Ooh what could have been last night...

Traded the England vs Netherlands match well, I've noticed that in dead rubbers often there's a drift and there was certainly reason to doubt England and think that Netherlands were capable of scoring when they put their mind to it.

Anyway this was my position at the start

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Kind of wished I had put more green on the dutch so laid England at 1.1 for GBP 200

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Should have left it there!!

Lost my nerve as wanted at least GBP 72 to get my bank over GBP 3,700

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Then lost my nerve again and secured GBP 100 on Holland and GBP 95ish on Engalnd, still can't complain

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Another dead rubber tonight, not big drift yet, 25mins for Aus to drift to 1.22 when I'll trade out for what I have, may take 5.7 or 5.8 (on the other side) before that though for a small profit

This is from about an hour ago, no real change, all the 5.8 taken is all

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Other game going ok, late start but going well so far, will post up screenshot later
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  #1129  
Old 01-04-2014, 08:49 AM
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Here is the March p&l, not too bad in the end, I still could have put my feet up after the Aus vs SA test at the beginning of the month and been in the same position!

Still am happy enough and will hopefully play it a bit safer, until the IPL kicks off at least.... (mid April)

Still a few games left on the WC 20/20

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and here is the p&l summary, GBP 1280 to go to my June target...tricky...

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  #1130  
Old 01-04-2014, 09:26 AM
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Bugger, no drift in the Aus / Bangladesh match pre toss, traded out and of course Bangladesh won the toss and then drifted. Hey ho, have given myself a chance of an out

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  #1131  
Old 06-04-2014, 11:19 PM
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Couple of winners, couple of losers so not really moved on at all in April yet, a lot of my hopes are pinned on the IPL which starts in a week or so, though last I heard two of the teams might be chucked out which would halve the number of fixtures.

Might dabble on the US Masters market for a bit of interest. Though might do that on my other Betfair account (which after the weekend now has GBP 900 in it so will be using that for US Masters betting and World Snooker champs, luckily I can't using for Aus markets or I would probably waste it on dog and horse racing over here!)

NRL & AFL aren't anywhere near the liquidity I was hoping for, need to look back at old screenshots and see if it's really less liquid than this time or if my bankroll just means I need more liquidity (and bigger blockers) than those sports can offer.

Oh well not going to panic, if I fall short of my GBP 5k target it's not big deal, will probably still take out GBP 2k, confident I can build GBP 2k back to where I am now over July to September
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  #1132  
Old 10-04-2014, 01:04 PM
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Quiet week, made a bollocks of the NRL on Monday losing GBP 44.34

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Other than that nothing this week except for had a dabble on the US Masters, not too bad and would look great but for getting the Sergio price wrong, thought it would drift from 27.0 but came in big time into 19.5, I topped up at 23.0 and 21.0, all green at least

Also have a GBP 300 green on Donaldson and GBP 150 on Gary Woodland (so a free GBP 1.50 bet....)

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  #1133  
Old 11-04-2014, 12:57 PM
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Built up a GBP 420 green on Scott today and GBP 1250 on Mickelson. I could take GBP 65 but where's the fun in that, plus I really fancy Scott this week and it wouldn't surprise me if at some point Mickelson can get back into it again.

Scott started the day at 6.8 to back, really didn't think that he would drift and would be the most attractive player to back, as it turns out Bubba probably had the biggest drop early on. Similarly I couldn't see Mickelson coming in much from 60.0 and with a blocker at 55.0 I twice laid him at 60.0 and backed him back at 70.0 (first time for GBP 50, the second time for GBP 61)

This is how it looked when I backed Scott, I had just backed him for GBP 400 and later took the last GBP 300 available at 6.8, there was nothing at 6.2 so was able to get to the front of the queue there, as below that was useful as by the time the price came in there was GBP 14k on top of me. The price never came in to 6.0 so I judged it right (=got lucky the gap was in the right place more like it)

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This was my final position on the other two. I still have decent greens on Stenson, McDowell, Snedecker, Westwood and Woodland who are all there or thereabouts.

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  #1134  
Old 20-04-2014, 02:12 AM
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Bank now up to GBP 3817, had a couple of bad trades on the AFL / NRL, purely out of boredom and they're really markets which I should rarely get involved with as there just isn't the liquidity.

IPL off to a flyer, 4 wins in 4, with 60+ games it's a market I'm keen to do well on, it's pretty much my only chance of hitting GBP 5k by June (not that it's the end of the world if I don't but I am keen to)

Be interesting to see how it goes. I also backed Ronnie at 2.54 for GBP 1500 and laid off at 2.36, 2.38 and 2.42 for a free GBP 200 green, gave 20 back last night when it looked like Hull might pin him back to 3-2 but he got a snooker, won the frame and went on to win the match 10-4. It really looks like only a nightmare session (which he's not had for a few years now) is the only way he won't win this title, long way to go yet though



Here are some of the screenshots





My best trade recently and the numbers traded




and the not so good...
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  #1135  
Old 27-04-2014, 08:08 AM
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Most people who post on any sort of Betting thread seem to do well - which leads to a suspicion that only the successful post or (more likely) successes are exaggerated and losses hidden.

My strategy on Betfair has been to lay Palace whenever we take a lead. The odds seem to shift far too much after a goal and the first score is rarely the last. I will often have a bet towards the end of matches as well, because the dramatically shifting odds take into account time remaining and (to me) do not seem to take sufficient account of the pressure to score in the closing minutes. My main reason for betting (apart from having a bit of fun) is to hedge against disappointment. I never bet so much that I actually want Palace to fail.

Anyway, last Season - by the Play Off final -I was hundreds of pounds ahead, and lost it all betting against Palace when the penalty was scored. This Season until 5 games ago, I was also up about 150 on the Season. Not surprisingly, I have now lost all that - and an additional 100 as well. I also lost a further 50 betting on Palace to be relegated after the Cardiff match at about 20-1.

So that's it for me for the Season. I am hoping to have a similarly unsuccessful finish next year.

Question: I wonder if you are more or less likely to win money hoping to lose a bet? Logic suggests to me that, assuming the odds taken are largely reflective of the chances of your bet succeeding, it makes little difference in the long run. In the end, only Betfair can expect consistently to win, taking a cut from all winning bets and risking nothing.
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Old 27-04-2014, 08:45 PM
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Yep I'm also a long time user of Betfair for misery insurance, thankfully not so much this season. Made a few quid laying us when leading a couple of seasons ago, we seemed to throw away leads all the time.

I don't think there are many at all on these boards who claim to be long term winners. A couple are, I'm certainly not though this trading experiment has shown that on certain markets it appears I can make a decent profit, the fact I'm not paying the premium charge shows that I'm still a long term loser on Betfair though. I post up screenshots of most of my trades though I realise I could easily hide (or just not mention) some of my losing trades.

Happy to post up p&l's from Betfair, though until mid Jan I was using my account I'm not entirely certain if you're questioning whether what I'm posting up is genuine (don't think so and I don't blame you for being sceptical, if everyone who claimed to be long term winners were then bookies would not be doing as well as they clearly are, plus (outside of Betfair who don't care if you win) bookies ban winners faster than ever

Anyway for the record

My balance on 26th Jan was GBP 2670.61 (that can be checked scrolling back to previous screenshots, my balance just before the Hewitt bet was settled)

Add to that my last 3 months Main wallet p&l GBP 1222.58

Aussie wallet profit from last 3 months of GBP 230.78


Plus the GBP 20 I took out for my VPN gives GBP 4143.97
My current balance is GBP 4070

Ok it doesn't match exactly but think it shows I'm not making it up Not quite sure why it doesn't match exactly though, oh well.

The above is before the 2 IPL matches last night where I won another GBP 52

Last edited by Finbar; 27-04-2014 at 08:59 PM.
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Old 28-04-2014, 12:41 AM
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the fact I'm not paying the premium charge shows that I'm still a long term loser on Betfair though.
If you aren't paying premium charge doesn't necessarily mean you are a long-term loser, surely?
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Old 28-04-2014, 12:48 AM
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Most people who post on any sort of Betting thread seem to do well - which leads to a suspicion that only the successful post or (more likely) successes are exaggerated and losses hidden.
I suppose that's human nature really isn't it? If I meet you in a pub and say "Hi James, how's it going?" irrespective of how you really feel, you're probably more likely to put a positive slant on it - "Yeah, hi Louis, it's going well yeah - how are you?". I think it's about wanting to feel good and the need to be seen to be feeling good, rather than the opposite ...
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Old 28-04-2014, 01:19 AM
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Well, long term winner or less than GBP 1000 in profit. There are a few ways you won't pay it if over that (one massive win can be ignored or you get involved in very few markets) but basically if you're a consistent winner and in profit to the tune of GBP 1000+ then you'll pay at least 20% commission

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If you aren't paying premium charge doesn't necessarily mean you are a long-term loser, surely?
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Old 28-04-2014, 05:37 AM
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No - I wasn't questioning you. You do seem to have been quite transparent, posting all your trades plus P&L, and of course there are always winners - some of whom have been winners fairly consistently. Clearly you can make money from Betfair, where the odds are not calculated by actuaries, but by other punters (some of whom are obviously idiots and do not understand risk). Taking everyone who bets on any market however because the winners and losers match - with Betfair taking their cut - on average, everyone loses.

My point is that you very rarely hear about the losses. Whenever I have spoken to people about betting, they usually claim to be a winner.

I think that some people deceive themselves about their losses and only focus upon the wins. If we were all absolutely honest and were able to calculate our net profit/loss over the years, I suspect that we would get quite a shock.
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