Local Election Poll

[Big Blue Eagle]

Really interested to see what happens in NI over the next few hours and if the DUP get any sort of backlash in what is a Remain part of the UK. I suspect that sectarian voting will still dominate but they could take some damage.

[stevek]

Originally Posted by GreatGonzo

We know that not all Labour voters will be leavers

We actually know that the majority of Labour voters are remainers/want a second referendum. So that rather undermines your argument.

[Ruskin Old Boy]

Originally Posted by stevek

We actually know that the majority of Labour voters are remainers/want a second referendum. So that rather undermines your argument.

Indeed.

What is damaging the Labour Party is a feeling that it has become the junior party in a coalition Brexit government.

In the meantime, congratulations to the pro-Remain parties that have done well in the local elections.

[GreatGonzo]

Originally Posted by stevek

We actually know that the majority of Labour voters are remainers/want a second referendum. So that rather undermines your argument.

My argument is that they have voted for Brexit supporting parties. They have voted Labour, Labour support Brexit. Those are facts. The Labour EU manifesto is apparently going to have their alternative Brexit as their preferred choice. Brexit.

That many members do not agree with the parties position is also undeniable, but they still choose to vote for them knowing that.

Come May 24th when results are in, people will look at the results and will combine the vote for Labour, Tory, UKIP and Brexit party and make the argument that more people voted for Brexit supporting parties (if it is the case) than for remain supporting ones.

The current polls will suggest that will be a large majority.

[stevek]

Originally Posted by GreatGonzo

Come May 24th when results are in, people will look at the results and will combine the vote for Labour, Tory, UKIP and Brexit party and make the argument that more people voted for Brexit supporting parties (if it is the case) than for remain supporting ones.

The current polls will suggest that will be a large majority.

By 'people' you mean you. I don't think serious commentators will say that Labour votes are a pro-Brexit vote.

[GreatGonzo]

Originally Posted by stevek

By 'people' you mean you. I don't think serious commentators will say that Labour votes are a pro-Brexit vote.

We shall see.

I think it will be used by commentators, and politicians alike.

Adlerhorst also alluded to it here:

Originally Posted by Adlerhorst

The Tories are not going to change their position on Brexit to remain. Not ever. So basically if you want to remain the best chance of getting it is getting Labour to change their policy. And that means hurting Labour at the ballot box, because changing policy from within is exceptionally difficult now Corbyn’s lot have taken control of everything.

If Labour voters blindly vote Labour on 23rd they will not change their policy, they will be supporting a Brexit party and it will strengthen Corbyns position on Brexit.

[stevek]

Originally Posted by GreatGonzo

We shall see.

I think it will be used by commentators, and politicians alike.

Adlerhorst also alluded to it here:


If Labour voters blindly vote Labour on 23rd they will not change their policy, they will be supporting a Brexit party and it will strengthen Corbyns position on Brexit.

That's a very different argument (and one in which I see much more merit) than simply claiming that Lab+Con+Brexit+UKIP = the 'Brexit' vote.

[Big Blue Eagle]

The results mainly tell what has been obvious for the past two years - as do the reactions from rent a quote MPs and their tweets. The political landscape is infected by Brexit and nothing else. Local politics has always played well with LD, Greens & Independents who have made a position of using them to campaign on really local issues while also mopping up disaffected hard core remainers in the case of LD & Green votes. The main two just tend to campaign on slagging off whoever is in power and blaming them for rises in council tax, bin collections, planning issues etc etc.

This vote has been so lacklustre because at the moment there is no other politics than Brexit to a large degree. The results for Tories and Labour are giving succour to both sides of the Brexit divide - Lavery coming out for Labour saying that their poor showing is proof that there is no wish for a second ref, other Labour MPs going out saying the opposite. Hard core Brexiteers like Priti Patel, Jenkin etc coming out saying the Tories lost seats because of Brexit not being hard enough - ignoring that they lost councils to the LDs who are the most Remain of all. It was interesting that in the debate on Gavin Williamson the hard Brexiteers in the party like Cash, Bone etc all came out backing him as a stick to beat May with, despite the fact that what he is alleged to have done goes directly against all their principles.

Until Brexit is resolved we will have paralysis and it will probably still be there after we leave as we then have years of argument over the shape of the deal. And all of this is being run by some of the most small minded and intellectually deficient front benches I have ever seen in my political life time - on both major parties - Fox, Truss, Abbott, Gardiner, to name just 4.

The split in the country reflects it - 30-35% want out at any cost, 30-35% want to stay and 30-35% couldn't care less and just want it all over. I would probably add that maybe 10-15% probably haven't even noticed that Brexit is going on....

[Stellavista]

It is clear that one needs to be pretty circumspect in any analysis of the results. The turnout is pretty poor, some parties have not put up candidates in many areas and the large urban remain areas weren't involved. Two things are clear. The Tories are entirely f**ked, and Labour needs to come off the fence, one way or another, preferably in unequivocal support for a confirmatory referendum.

[El Aguila]

You do take a long time to count votes over there. Polling stations closed at nine here, last Sunday, in the general election with a turnout over 75%, and the results were almost 100% correct by 10.30.

[Stellavista]

Judging by his broadcast statement this morning, Corbyn is utterly deluded. He needs to go.

[Stellavista]

Originally Posted by El Aguila

You do take a long time to count votes over there. Polling stations closed at nine here, last Sunday, in the general election with a turnout over 75%, and the results were almost 100% correct by 10.30.

I am not sure the UK needs to take any lessons from Spain on democratic processes

[El Aguila]

I would have agreed with you, till a few years back. Suddenly the UK looks out of time and inflexible.

[stevek]

Originally Posted by Big Blue Eagle

The split in the country reflects it - 30-35% want out at any cost, 30-35% want to stay and 30-35% couldn't care less and just want it all over. I would probably add that maybe 10-15% probably haven't even noticed that Brexit is going on....

So that's 100-120% of the population covered

But, leaving aside the irresistible pedantry, I think you're pretty much spot on.

[tasty_snacks]

Originally Posted by Adlerhorst

Do we need electoral reform or do we, as an electorate, need to reform our behaviours?

The point of FTPT is to avoid idiocy by having two dominating parties that represent a wide spectrum of views but tend to the middle. If one party goes idiot, then the idea is the other one doesn’t go idiot and wins. So we don’t get idiots and the middle position dominates. There are two flaws with that. One what happens when both parties go full idiot. That shouldn’t happen because when one goes full idiot the other should recognise that and not go full idiot and win easily. The other floor is a huge lack of choice, because the middle should win again and again and again and again and again. In essence the coalitions that dominate PR have already happened in the two main parties before the election.

We’re in a unique scenario where both parties have gone full idiot. If we want to stop that we should abandon them.

In reality under FPTP, when both parties go full idiot what happens is that people are forced to choose the lesser idiot at each extreme, and actually, the middle is abandoned by voters to keep out the greater idiot. This is borne out in previous results - centrists such as Lib Dems have always done best in the UK in national elections when the the two main parties are closer together. This is intuitive - voters are more likely to vote to their preference when there are no nutters on the ballot, as there is no need to keep the bigger nutter out.

Big fan of the 'full idiot' terminology - I'm plagiarising that.

[GreatGonzo]

Originally Posted by stevek

That's a very different argument (and one in which I see much more merit) than simply claiming that Lab+Con+Brexit+UKIP = the 'Brexit' vote.

Ah but i never said it was the Brexit vote. I said it was votes for Brexit supporting parties, which it would be. It will then be used by some to reaffirm the referendum result.

Any remainer who votes for Tory or Labour (assuming virtually none will for UKIP and Brexit) will be doing the remain cause damage.

[GreatGonzo]

Originally Posted by El Aguila

You do take a long time to count votes over there. Polling stations closed at nine here, last Sunday, in the general election with a turnout over 75%, and the results were almost 100% correct by 10.30.

Paper ballots or electronic voting?

[stevek]

Originally Posted by GreatGonzo

Ah but i never said it was the Brexit vote. I said it was votes for Brexit supporting parties, which it would be. It will then be used by some to reaffirm the referendum result.

Saying it 'reaffirms the refendum result' is the same as saying it's the Brexit vote.

[GreatGonzo]

Originally Posted by stevek

Saying it 'reaffirms the refendum result' is the same as saying it's the Brexit vote.

As i say, that is how some people will portray it in the 24th. We can wait and see if that happens or not.

[west country boy]

Originally Posted by El Aguila

I would have agreed with you, till a few years back. Suddenly the UK looks out of time and inflexible.