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  #1181  
Old 22-07-2014, 10:19 PM
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  #1182  
Old 22-07-2014, 11:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Northern_palace View Post
Fin bar, is there anything you would suggest I read to help get me in to this. How did you learn? I'm reading lay, back and think of winning which is mainly based around horses. I understand the principles involved but it's trying to get my head round how the market moves and predicting it.
That's the very book that I first read, by no means perfect and quite old but most of the principles still hold. Read a bit of that blog but never really found much to learn from it, maybe I should revisit

Best way bar none is to put an amount you can afford to lose in your Betfair account and use that account for trading only, in my case purely pre event as this is lowest risk.

Choose your markets, I really recommend those with only 2 outcomes, except for test cricket and maybe football (unders/overs , though I don't as kick off is middle of the night for me)

Learn to play both sides of 2 outcome markets, laying at 1.19 rather than backing at 6.2 for example, or getting matched for a lay at 3.0 when all the money is trying to back at 1.5 (iBetMate great for this, Betfair app shows cross matching and is awful anyway)

Read through this thread, I've made a hell of a lot of mistakes you can learn from. Accept you'll have losing trades and follow your p&l closely. I am certain that without this thread I would have totally lost my discipline and given up, had several attempts at this before having sustained success

Having a spare Betfair account helps, I've actually got 3, though one is wife's which I need to be careful with... The other is a BlueSq account they converted when BF took them over

Post up how you go on here, I've said it all along that it amazes me more don't do what I've been doing, good luck!!
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  #1183  
Old 23-07-2014, 06:57 AM
Northern_palace Northern_palace is offline
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Cheers finbar. I will finish that book and set up a second betfair account to just use as trading. Will keep my other for my usual bets.

Another question though ...

How far in advance do you start either backing or laying an event? Should I be looking days/weeks or sticking to the day of the event?
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  #1184  
Old 23-07-2014, 08:14 AM
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Depends on the sport and even then how big the event is within the sport

You want enough liquidity that you won't be left with open trades when the event starts and you can have an idea of where the market is going, but not too much that you pretty much get matched when some lumper puts GBP 100k on a result. If you can make money trading Premier League matches in the 30mins before kick off you're a great man than I, literally pot luck unless you have a stupidly large bank.

For my sports

International Cricket tests - if two of the main teams are playing then you can start trading 2-3 days beforehand. You can probably trade the England game now (starts Sunday) but that's a long time to potentially leave your money tied up and also the numbers won't move much. That can be a good thing if, for example you're backing one team at 2.72 and laying at 2.7, you can make some great money when prices don't move for long enough. I would normally only do that if sandwiched between two large numbers though. Best to trade out a couple of hours before it starts, plus of course the numbers will move a lot after the toss

One day cricket / 2020 either international or IPL / Big Bash - Usually the day of the match unless it's a big International, 2020 tournaments (or World Cups) have games most days so it's normally when one game starts you start trading the next. One day cricket comps have been the best for me so far.

Also worth bearing in mind that the liquidity you need depends on your bank. Last year AFL and NRL were both good for me but this year my bank is a bit big. Starting out I would highly recommend under/over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals for Prem League or Champs League, just the right liquidity on the day of the game for a bank of around GBP 1000 or under and a great place to learn. Lots of markets on a Saturday to look for a big blocker to trade behind (the best way of trading, though by no means infallible)

I would stick to sports you know, even though my best trading is cricket (and I know f all about cricket) I do seem to judge what is a price which can't really go much lower (though clearly I get it very wrong sometimes)

Went well today and I'll post up some pics.

Helps if you have time to check the numbers regularly, if you're going out with friends just leave the trading till another day, great to pass the time at work (if you can get away with it)

You have to download iBetMate though, it's free and doesn't show cross matched numbers for each market, it's also clearer and more user friendly than Betfair's own app which does show combined cross matched numbers

Hope that helps, if you're looking at a market and want my thoughts on how good it'll be to trade just post up the event, bearing in mind that I'll be asleep during UK worktime hours. Am sure there are plenty of others who will have thoughts though
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  #1185  
Old 23-07-2014, 08:20 AM
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The odds for the draw in the Sri Lanka vs South Africa test (starting tomorrow afternoon for me) came right in again today. I traded the other results quite well (laying at 4.3ish and backing back 4.7ish). Then went to the gym (it happens very rarely..). When I got back the draw had been backed downto 1.62, from looking at the forecast (not great but not exactly horrific either) that seemed as low as it was likely to go, I laid at 1.62, only for a couple of hundred, there was nothing behind it at all so pretty sure I could back back at 1.7+, then laid some more at 1.7 (about GBP 1400), the price hung around there for a while then drifted to 1.74 which I back half back at, and then the rest at 1.79 which I knew would give me level GBP 100 greens. That's as high as it went and I would probably have taken 1.77ish if it hadn't been match.

Current market



The graph showing what the draw price has done, hammered in!!

This was not long after I laid again at 1.7

[/url]

and my bets so far on the market

[/url]

Just need to not f*ck it up this time
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  #1186  
Old 23-07-2014, 08:46 AM
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There were some daft prices on offer during the last Test - for some reason, England were favourites to win at one point on the final day, even though history showed that England would have had to record their second highest successful run chase and the second-highest fourth innings chase by any team at Lord's to win the match. It was free money (even though I cashed out a little early):

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  #1187  
Old 23-07-2014, 09:17 AM
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Nicely done, it was surprising to see India go odds against before the 5th wicket, psychologically though it didn't seem that out of the question (especially with that batsman friendly wicket), but as you say history said India were nailed on, wish I had been braver!

Though in my case I wish I hadn't had to trade it in running in the first place...
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  #1188  
Old 23-07-2014, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Finbar View Post
I've said it all along that it amazes me more don't do what I've been doing
Hard work, patience and discipline might be the reasons. Just writing everything you put on this thread must take a lot of time.
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  #1189  
Old 23-07-2014, 10:06 AM
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Not words you would usually associate with me, but cheers

Does take a bit of time to post up screenshots and explanations but it's helps me focus and I look forward to one day reading back through it and probably laughing at some of my howlers. Might go some way to explaining the intermittent betting masters updates though (speaking of which...)
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  #1190  
Old 23-07-2014, 10:38 PM
Northern_palace Northern_palace is offline
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Cheers for the advice again! I was looking at the odds for the 3 rd test this morning. Weather is good over here at the moment so the forecast looks ok. England were at 2.7 when I looked first of all. The graph showed their price falling and it's now down to 2.68 and lay at 2.7. Not sure if it will move anymore though. What would you be looking for for further clues?
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  #1191  
Old 23-07-2014, 11:56 PM
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I'm currently fighting the temptation to lay England at the moment, I really can't see that price coming in and I can massively see Eng drifting to 3.0 or close, however going on that logic is when I become unstuck! Am hoping for a blocker to come in at 2.66 or something...

Sometimes you just have to go for it and back your hunch, I probably will after the SL match starts, holding out in case an opportunity pops up there
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  #1192  
Old 24-07-2014, 12:29 AM
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I cracked, layed England at 2.7 for GBP 1189, liability of GBP 2020, still have GBP 480 in my bank to top up needs be

Watch the price crash in now!!
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  #1193  
Old 24-07-2014, 12:38 AM
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If nothing else it stops me backing the SL draw, a bird in the hand and all that...
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Old 24-07-2014, 07:26 AM
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They have moved back out finbar!!!
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Old 24-07-2014, 08:01 AM
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Yeah hopefully the start of a drift, have laid England at 2.7 and backed the draw at 2.84. Did you end up laying England or leaving it? After I took what was there at 2.7 more money came in to back England at 2.7, but thankfully that was also snapped up

If the 2.74 is taken then there is no money waiting to back England and I've put in a lay bet at 2.78 for my stake on the draw. I'm happy to leave the England bet as am still hopeful of a significant drift and if that doesn't happen I can hopefully take a small profit instead

No guarantees but it looks fairly promising



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Old 24-07-2014, 08:37 AM
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I haven't touched them yet. Not confident enough on how that will move now. I think a lot will depend on how the pitch is reported to play. The last test was indiss first away from home for ages so there's no great confidence that there price will come in either.
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Old 24-07-2014, 08:48 AM
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I think you can read too much into the pitch, that should pretty much be accounted for in the price already, can't see there being more info between now and Sunday, on the day itself the pundits will have their say which will no doubt affect the price.

The draw has come in to 2.78, laid off half my GBP 459 I had at 2.84 at that price and changed the other half to 2.72, India drifting a shade which I'd rather didn't happen, would like the draw to come in, England to go out and India to stay put!

Another match where the draw is popular...
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Old 27-07-2014, 11:17 AM
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Suffice to say that didn't go well!!

England price never drifted, decided to roll the dice and hope India won toss, annoyingly they lost

I could probably have got out for a GBP 20 loss but the England price went from 2.64 to 2.42, I managed to back them back at 2.5, hey ho, 4 'in between' days to win it back.

Am starting with a back of India at 6.6, quite feasible England will implode

This is how it looked when the match started



...and after backing India



Luckily I've not touched the SA match so should win GBP 95 on that one after commission

Here's hoping I don't chase too much and make it worse, not outside the realms of possibility
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Old 31-07-2014, 10:18 AM
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Ok well having blown all my profit on the last England test on the last day (turned a GBP 100+ profit into a GBP 100 loss) I managed to turn it the other way this time. Managed to claw back some of the GBP 100 loss before the 3rd test started gradually, then today managed to turn it all into a profit

Ok this is pretty much how it went, may get the odd day wrong but to the best of my recollection:

Before day 1,



Before day 2, actually did well getting about GBP 50 back



Not really much progress going into day 4...



Now the good stuff...

Really didn't do any trading for most of the day, big liquidity and had no idea where the numbers were going. Then it looked like India were going to be backed at 6.0ish and at the same time England drift from 1.22. Having accpeted I was going to lose about GBP 60 on the game I was glad to have hope, i laid at 1.22 for GBP 4000 and backed at 6.0 for GBP 350, later topping up at 5.8

So this was at 4.20pm (8pm start Brisbane time)



It took a while but I was able to back my GBP 4000 back at 1.24, then laid off a lot of my India bet at 5.6



Then the price came crashing in, England out to 1.27/1.28 and India in to 5.3, laid off the rest of my India bet at 5.2, they eventually came into 4.9

Had I just waited I would have made a killing but made that mistake yesterday and ended up back where I started.



So that's all good, slim chance of a big win if India somehow score the necessary runs, other than that GBP 55 win (after commission)

The SA vs SL I ended up having a small back of SA to win so ended up with GBP 90





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Old 31-07-2014, 10:31 AM
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So to July p&l, all aided by the massive error on the tennis, even without it would still have been okish, 12%, as it was it was a 34% month, hopefully next month will be something in between...

Not many markets traded this month, had a free bet on the horses which I actually went slightly over on, hence the GBP 3.21 loss on that



P&L Summary, almost up to GBP 5000 profit since the start, hopefully hit that one soon



August will be another quiet month, should be enough cricket to keep me going though, may dabble in some NRL / AFL / tennis also
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