Home | Forums | Gallery | Twitter
 
CPFC BBS  

Go Back   CPFC BBS » Off Topic » General Chit Chat

Notices

General Chit Chat Off topic conversations. Please do not post CPFC or sport related threads here

Reply
 
Thread Tools
  #78361  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:00 PM
Golf Boy's Avatar
Golf Boy Golf Boy is offline
I'm not divorced
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: The Baltic Sea
Age: 51
Posts: 43,422
Rep Power: 21474854
Golf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is hereGolf Boy Sam the man is here
This thing seems to mutate every few weeks. Is it the same with flu, or does that only mutate every year?
Reply With Quote
  #78362  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:03 PM
wedgetail's Avatar
wedgetail wedgetail is offline
Sing now, godess.
 
Join Date: Jan 1999
Location: Before the Skaian gate of Ilion
Posts: 13,326
Rep Power: 21474859
wedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is herewedgetail Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
It is a very narrow view on it. It dismisses the point that naturally acquired immunity develops against various parts of the virus and the amount of mutations needed to evade immunity are so vast that it would take years for that to happen given the speed this virus mutates in terms of numbers of mutations.

What nobody seems to consider in their thinking is that every non-vaxxed person getting this virus is developing immunity. Herd immunity is nearly always the product of vaccination + natural infection.
Absolute nonsense. Covid 19 was created by one muation, a 4 codon deletion. It is possible that a vaccine evading mution could occur in a similar way. We have to remember that this whole pandemic was caused by one muation at one virus copying event on one occassion in one pangolin and there are now trillions of these events happening every second. The evolutionary space allowing for more virulent and or more contagious variants is immense, our hope is that more benign variants are far more likely to occur.

Keeping cases as low as possible is the best policy on purely medical grounds.

It is true that viruses tend to become less destructive with time but there is no limit to the level of destruction that can occur in the meantime.
Reply With Quote
  #78363  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:08 PM
GreatGonzo's Avatar
GreatGonzo GreatGonzo is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 69,412
Rep Power: 21474858
GreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golf Boy View Post
This thing seems to mutate every few weeks. Is it the same with flu, or does that only mutate every year?
It is constantly mutating, every time it is transmitted it can mutate. It is only the significant mutations affecting certain elements of the virus that cause concern.
Reply With Quote
  #78364  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:10 PM
eagle mart's Avatar
eagle mart eagle mart is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Age: 45
Posts: 17,528
Rep Power: 21474859
eagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is hereeagle mart Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golf Boy View Post
This thing seems to mutate every few weeks. Is it the same with flu, or does that only mutate every year?
Flu mutates all the time and avoids the vaccines every year. It's just never very transmissible - which is why its never that much of a problem.
__________________
PHATTUS 'Tuneus'
Reply With Quote
  #78365  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:12 PM
GreatGonzo's Avatar
GreatGonzo GreatGonzo is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 69,412
Rep Power: 21474858
GreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is hereGreatGonzo Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by eagle mart View Post
Flu mutates all the time and avoids the vaccines every year. It's just never very transmissible - which is why its never that much of a problem.
Tends to be spike mutations. There is a lot of excitement about the potential for mRNA vaccines for flu.
Reply With Quote
  #78366  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:20 PM
bigend1's Avatar
bigend1 bigend1 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2003
Age: 39
Posts: 16,664
Rep Power: 21474855
bigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is herebigend1 Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevek View Post
Personally, it seems sensible to me to delay the next step by a few weeks: get more people vaccinated take spreading in schools out of the equation. Better than opening up and then having to take a step backwards.
Yeah I don't get the resistance to this. Most restrictions are lifted anyway. Life is better than it was. The remaining restrictions for a few more weeks equates to not much disruption for millions of extra people vaccinated and super spreading potential in schools removed.

To be up in arms for a few more weeks is just fed up people being stubborn combined with other people who are too stupid to know what any of it means and arguing anyway.
__________________
It's a old story but if i could change the username i would... ok?!
Reply With Quote
  #78367  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:41 PM
Pete79 Pete79 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Anerley
Posts: 1,789
Rep Power: 21474844
Pete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by wedgetail View Post
Absolute nonsense. Covid 19 was created by one muation, a 4 codon deletion. It is possible that a vaccine evading mution could occur in a similar way. We have to remember that this whole pandemic was caused by one muation at one virus copying event on one occassion in one pangolin and there are now trillions of these events happening every second. The evolutionary space allowing for more virulent and or more contagious variants is immense, our hope is that more benign variants are far more likely to occur.

Keeping cases as low as possible is the best policy on purely medical grounds.

It is true that viruses tend to become less destructive with time but there is no limit to the level of destruction that can occur in the meantime.
I'm not sure I follow this. If SARS-CoV-2 (covid 19?) was 'created' by one mutation - a four codon deletion - where are the parental viruses? The closest virus to SARS-2 is Bat CoV RaTG13 which is only 88% homologous. I don't see how the whole pandemic was caused by a single mutation although I understand how mutations in the spike protein alter its ability to bind to host cell receptors.

It is also not possible that a single mutation can allow a virus to entirely escape vaccine mediated protection.
Reply With Quote
  #78368  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:44 PM
LSEagle's Avatar
LSEagle LSEagle is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The 6.26 from Redhill
Age: 36
Posts: 5,632
Rep Power: 7402945
LSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigend1 View Post
Yeah I don't get the resistance to this. Most restrictions are lifted anyway. Life is better than it was. The remaining restrictions for a few more weeks equates to not much disruption for millions of extra people vaccinated and super spreading potential in schools removed.

To be up in arms for a few more weeks is just fed up people being stubborn combined with other people who are too stupid to know what any of it means and arguing anyway.
I think a fair few people suspect that in a few weeks time the scientists will be out there giving the same message about not being able to open up, we haven't vaccinated enough people, and then a few weeks becomes a few months.
Reply With Quote
  #78369  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:45 PM
Pete79 Pete79 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Anerley
Posts: 1,789
Rep Power: 21474844
Pete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is herePete79 Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by eagle mart View Post
Flu mutates all the time and avoids the vaccines every year. It's just never very transmissible - which is why its never that much of a problem.
Influenza is fairly transmissible. The reason its not usually a big problem is that most of us have already had influenza infection and/or vaccination and thus have a certain amount of 'cross protection' to different strains of flu. This will eventually occur with SARS-CoV-2.
Reply With Quote
  #78370  
Old 11-06-2021, 12:47 PM
Reps AJ's Avatar
Reps AJ Reps AJ is offline
Climbing for dollars
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Somewhere you're not
Posts: 18,608
Rep Power: 21474856
Reps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is hereReps AJ Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
I think a fair few people suspect that in a few weeks time the scientists will be out there giving the same message about not being able to open up, we haven't vaccinated enough people, and then a few weeks becomes a few months.
I think without the Indian variant we'd all be hugging and licking strangers by now but it's come along so should we not properly asses the risks?
Reply With Quote
  #78371  
Old 11-06-2021, 01:03 PM
loz loz is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: east grinstead
Age: 56
Posts: 1,833
Rep Power: 13354364
loz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietloz came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
Quote:
Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
I think a fair few people suspect that in a few weeks time the scientists will be out there giving the same message about not being able to open up, we haven't vaccinated enough people, and then a few weeks becomes a few months.
Very much this.

They said on the news yesterday that 3 million people are still on some kind of furlough and the wedding industry will collapse if they can’t work profitable until The end of July,

So that’s catering and flowers, Taylor’s and the chains that supply those.

Let alone the theatre, costumes, set designers , lighting engineers, bar workers etc.

Most artists and film / sound men are self employed they haven’t worked for 18 months coming up.

It’s ok for people who can work from home or comfortable on furlough to want another month but for a lot of people it’s a nightmare.
Reply With Quote
  #78372  
Old 11-06-2021, 02:24 PM
Windsor_Eagle's Avatar
Windsor_Eagle Windsor_Eagle is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Ascot
Posts: 15,793
Rep Power: 21474846
Windsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by wedgetail View Post
Absolute nonsense. Covid 19 was created by one muation, a 4 codon deletion. It is possible that a vaccine evading mution could occur in a similar way. We have to remember that this whole pandemic was caused by one muation at one virus copying event on one occassion in one pangolin and there are now trillions of these events happening every second. The evolutionary space allowing for more virulent and or more contagious variants is immense, our hope is that more benign variants are far more likely to occur.

Keeping cases as low as possible is the best policy on purely medical grounds.

It is true that viruses tend to become less destructive with time but there is no limit to the level of destruction that can occur in the meantime.
Samples from a number of those known to have had SARs in 2003 / 2004 had robust immune protection from SARs-CoV-2 17 years later. Likewise, several papers including this one: To view the link you have to Register or Login show that robust T-Cell responses to other circulating human betacoronaviruses are capable of preventing infection and/or serious illness from SARs-CoV-2 in individuals exposed to other circulating coronaviruses in the relatively recent past.

What other plausible explanation might there possibly be for 'asymptomatic cases' of what is largely considered to be a very dangerous virus if not pre-existing immunity in significant sections of the population?

Both SARs 1 and the other known human betacoronavirsues are much further diverged from the earliest genetic codes of SARs-CoV-2 than any of the variants identified so far. So, I stand by my point, that a variant that has diverged so far from the earlier and current variants we have that robust immunological response from natural vaccination and immunity is significantly evaded is not likely on the horizon - particularly when you consider that AB escape =/= immune escape.

Last edited by Windsor_Eagle; 11-06-2021 at 02:31 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #78373  
Old 11-06-2021, 02:28 PM
Windsor_Eagle's Avatar
Windsor_Eagle Windsor_Eagle is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Ascot
Posts: 15,793
Rep Power: 21474846
Windsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by eagle mart View Post
To view the link you have to Register or Login

No chance we are going to open up. The bumbling along has just been this variant slowly taking over and beating Alpha to the next host. Which was having trouble. Now it's dominant. It'll be off to the races... It'll peak really quickly though, I think. Real world data needs to be mild illness and no or very little hospitalisations. The flu comparison is nonsense. If flu spread very quickly we would have this every winter. A mild disease from herd immunity is the only outlet
We have had 14 weeks in a row of deaths way below 5 year average. We have hospitals busied by the backlog, but not busy at all with respiratory illness. If we weren't mass testing, would any metric at all indicate that have been in a pandemic since March? We don't know how much flu is really about each winter because we don't mass test. We rely on primary care and hospital data to show it up with people getting sick. Yes, it is different to the flu, but pandemic flu years have been equivalent to this before and will be again. Except now, the whole world believes that the measures of the last year and half have been both a successful and legitimate way to manage such problems in the future. That's possibly the most depressing thing of all.
Reply With Quote
  #78374  
Old 11-06-2021, 02:29 PM
Windsor_Eagle's Avatar
Windsor_Eagle Windsor_Eagle is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Ascot
Posts: 15,793
Rep Power: 21474846
Windsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete79 View Post
I'm not sure I follow this. If SARS-CoV-2 (covid 19?) was 'created' by one mutation - a four codon deletion - where are the parental viruses? The closest virus to SARS-2 is Bat CoV RaTG13 which is only 88% homologous. I don't see how the whole pandemic was caused by a single mutation although I understand how mutations in the spike protein alter its ability to bind to host cell receptors.

It is also not possible that a single mutation can allow a virus to entirely escape vaccine mediated protection.
^
Reply With Quote
  #78375  
Old 11-06-2021, 02:39 PM
LSEagle's Avatar
LSEagle LSEagle is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The 6.26 from Redhill
Age: 36
Posts: 5,632
Rep Power: 7402945
LSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy dietLSEagle came here looking for the peace and quiet; the healthy air and the healthy diet
Quote:
Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
Samples from a number of those known to have had SARs in 2003 / 2004 had robust immune protection from SARs-CoV-2 17 years later. Likewise, several papers including this one: To view the link you have to Register or Login show that robust T-Cell responses to other circulating human betacoronaviruses are capable of preventing infection and/or serious illness from SARs-CoV-2 in individuals exposed to other circulating coronaviruses in the relatively recent past.
Do you think any of this explains how SE Asia seems to have kept a lid on it for the most part; I can't believe that strict track and trace measures by themselves have supressed it in any country
Reply With Quote
  #78376  
Old 11-06-2021, 02:56 PM
Penstone Eagle Penstone Eagle is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: overlooking BHAFC's blot on the landscape
Posts: 35,838
Rep Power: 21474850
Penstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is herePenstone Eagle Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
I think a fair few people suspect that in a few weeks time the scientists will be out there giving the same message about not being able to open up, we haven't vaccinated enough people, and then a few weeks becomes a few months.
Yep
__________________
Roll the Dyche
Reply With Quote
  #78377  
Old 11-06-2021, 03:02 PM
Vendy's Avatar
Vendy Vendy is offline
Back in a Sublime place
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 9,774
Rep Power: 21474854
Vendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is hereVendy Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
Do you think any of this explains how SE Asia seems to have kept a lid on it for the most part; I can't believe that strict track and trace measures by themselves have supressed it in any country
Taiwan are in the midst of their first real wave, deaths on the up and cases massively up on the previous 14 months. Take a look at the cases graph.

To view the link you have to Register or Login

The other thing I have noticed in the last few weeks, Covid outbreaks that the Chinese government cannot keep under the radar are in shipping ports seem to be spreading on the south coast of China. If the port work force are catching Covid it has to be in the wider public as well.
Reply With Quote
  #78378  
Old 11-06-2021, 03:12 PM
Windsor_Eagle's Avatar
Windsor_Eagle Windsor_Eagle is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Ascot
Posts: 15,793
Rep Power: 21474846
Windsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by LSEagle View Post
Do you think any of this explains how SE Asia seems to have kept a lid on it for the most part; I can't believe that strict track and trace measures by themselves have supressed it in any country
I am sure it has played a part. As has humidity and other geo-regional factors that we don't yet fully understand.
Reply With Quote
  #78379  
Old 11-06-2021, 03:55 PM
1905's Avatar
1905 1905 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Copenhagen
Posts: 7,384
Rep Power: 21474849
1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here1905 Sam the man is here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golf Boy View Post
No masks for us from Monday
Yeah, we were pretty surprised at that one (so only place you "have" to wear one is when standing on the bus/train) - bars open until midnight from today and then 2am in a month. Kind of happy restrictions easing but still surprised at the speed of them...

June 11th: Opening hours of bars and restaurants extended to midnight
June 12th: Number of spectators allowed at Parken football stadium increased from 15,900 to 25,000
June 14th: Face masks no longer required apart from when standing on public transport
June 14th: Coronapas no longer required in public libraries, and activities around voluntary organisations or clubs
June 14th: Kindergartens, primary schools, after school clubs, youth and adult education expected to return to normal timetable
July 1st: Restaurants where customers “essentially sit down” no longer need to meet area requirements or follow distance recommendations
July 15th: Opening hours of bars and restaurants extended to 2am
September 1st: Nightclubs and discos can reopen for those with valid coronapas
Reply With Quote
  #78380  
Old 11-06-2021, 03:57 PM
Windsor_Eagle's Avatar
Windsor_Eagle Windsor_Eagle is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Ascot
Posts: 15,793
Rep Power: 21474846
Windsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is hereWindsor_Eagle Sam the man is here
I am not sure if anyone has seen this account on Faceache:

To view the link you have to Register or Login

A poster by the name of John Dee - his biography:

Quote:
The analytical journal of a retired statistician, consultant analyst and former head of clinical audit at a major UK NHS teaching hospital. As a clinical data analyst I specialised in assessment of clinical outcomes across a range of disciplines and served on a regional clinical reference committee in addition to supporting the Directors of my NHS Foundation Trust and Primary Care Trust. I've lectured at the Royal College of Physicians on analysis of clinical outcomes as well as provided consultancy for secondary and tertiary service providers across NHS England. I use data from official sources to reveal what the authorities should be telling us about the COVID-19 pandemic but are not.
There's quite a lot of data analysis to try and wade through on that page and it can be difficult at times if one is not particularly well parsed in statistics. He does do a good job of crediting his sources and taking people through his data analysis, his assumptions and reasons for them and it makes for some fascinating reading. This one was particularly interesting and does help to explain why comparisons with influenza have been so off and why 'excess death' figures across a flu season often seems at odds with 'official' flu figures. This is particularly relevant when we are repeatedly told that 'it is nothing like flu and COVID is soooo much deadlier'.

Quote:
In my previous post entitled Respiratory Death Smoking Gun I revealed the results of multivariate statistical modelling to recreate data that the ONS are not releasing to the public, this being weekly respiratory co-morbid death counts prior to 2021. Two peaks emerged that didn’t find their counterpart in observed counts of respiratory causal death and I promised to take a look from t’other end just to check those peaks should be there as predicted.

Before I do this we need a refresher on how the data authorities handle respiratory death and I’ll start by re-iterating a post made on 19th March 2021 under the heading Jack In The Box.

Back on 19th March I produced a slide of influenza and pneumonia deaths in England & Wales for the period 1901 – 2019; here it is again.



You will notice the monster spike that was the Spanish ‘Flu and you’ll notice something odd happening to counts after 1981. I wrote to ONS to confirm this strange fluctuation was real and not some processing artefact and they confirmed it was most certainly real, arising from changes in coding dictated by WHO. Those changes were summarised in a post entitled WHO Rule 3 on 30th March and I once again reproduce text from the 2006 ONS national mortality status report that usefully explains matters…

"In general, the main change in introducing automated cause coding was in the interpretation of WHO Rule 3, one of the rules used to select the underlying cause of death. The interpretation of Rule 3 was broadened by OPCS in 1984, so that certain conditions that are often terminal, such as bronchopneumonia (ICD-9 485) or pulmonary embolism (ICD-9 415.1) could be considered a direct consequence of any more specific condition reported.

The more specific condition would then be regarded as the underlying cause. This change in interpretation meant that deaths from certain conditions such as pneumonia declined in 1984, while deaths from conditions often mentioned in part II of the death certificate increased. The change in 1993 was thus to move back to the internationally accepted interpretation of Rule 3 operating in England and Wales before 1984. The effects of moving back to this earlier interpretation of Rule 3 have been discussed elsewhere. Deaths assigned to external causes were excluded from the Rule 3 change in 1984 because the procedures for assigning underlying cause of death based on coroners’ verdict were unaffected by WHO rules.

The rule that changes cause of death statistics most is Rule 3. In ICD-10 the list of conditions affected by Rule 3 is more clearly defined than in ICD-9 and is also broader in scope. Its impact is to reduce the number of deaths assigned to certain conditions such as pneumonia and to increase the number of deaths assigned to chronic debilitating diseases. In England and Wales, about 20 per cent of deaths mention pneumonia so the effect of the change in Rule 3 is large.

1984 - OPCS decided to amend its interpretation of WHO Rule 3 in the assignment of underlying cause of death. This amendment is covered in more detail in section 3.2. It resulted in a decrease in the numbers of deaths coded to pneumonia and a few other causes, and an increase in deaths from many other conditions – most of the latter being small increases. The background to this change is given in the annual volume for 1984 in the DH2 series which includes a table assessing the numerical effects of changes, by underlying cause.

1993 - OPCS decided to revert to the internationally accepted interpretation of Rule 3 operating in England and Wales before 1984 (see section 3.2).
2001 - Introduction of the Tenth Revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases for coding cause of death on 1 January 2001. This replaced the Ninth Revision used from 1979 to 2000. There are some significant differences between the ICD versions. The main differences are:

• a change in format of the code and an expansion in the number of codes used
• a movement of some diseases and conditions between broad groups called ICD chapters
• changes to the rules governing the selection and coding of the underlying cause of death, especially Rule 3, which has had a large effect (see section 3.2) "


...thus the reason for that Jack in the box effect is the WHO farting about with clinical coding, and here it is in B&W in a report laid before the UK parliament for all to see. This farting about greatly reduced how we go about count deaths arising from pneumonia, and thus influenza-induced pneumonia. And there we all were thinking all those new ‘flu vaccines were doing a grand job!

We should note that the data series dating from 2001 is coded under WHO rule 3, which means fewer deaths from influenzal pneumonia than we used to count, which is why the current pandemic tends to look like a sore thumb. Whilst we have suppressed reporting of deaths due to influenzal pneumonia under WHO rule 3 we somehow have ignored this ruling when it comes to counting alleged COVID-19 deaths.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 10 (7 members and 3 guests)
KYLIE MINEAGLE, philsick, rødovreeagle, Dario_G, Oikboy, pat123, Horley_Eagle
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 07:00 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.