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  #41  
Old 06-03-2019, 02:46 PM
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I’d highly recommend giving this a watch. Very articulate and intelligent bloke.
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  #42  
Old 06-03-2019, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by smileysmith View Post
Oh yes I agree. But then the discussion appeared to move to a load of people blaming lack of deterrent and police.
I think that was Skints arrival
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  #43  
Old 06-03-2019, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
The depression of 2008 and the massive increase in youth unemployment must have played a part. As must the marginalisation of young people through criminal records checks being too stringent until recently.
What stats do you have on that?

With unemployment at 4% and youth unemployment down, I haven’t seen the facts that back up your statement that there is a ‘massive increase in youth unemployment’?

I remember much higher rates than we have now.

(But I do agree with other posters that we need to boost social services to support our communities, and not just for the young either.)
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  #44  
Old 06-03-2019, 02:54 PM
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I think that was Skints arrival
Oh, I hadn't noticed him. I have the pleasure of a BBS free of his input, mostly.
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  #45  
Old 06-03-2019, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by SOUTHGATE EAGLE View Post
The kids will just go for the face
Like the mythological Chelsea smiley gang? Problem solved. What investment are you offering for 51% of my business?
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  #46  
Old 06-03-2019, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
What stats do you have on that?

With unemployment at 4% and youth unemployment down, I haven’t seen the facts that back up your statement that there is a ‘massive increase in youth unemployment’?

I remember much higher rates than we have now.

(But I do agree with other posters that we need to boost social services to support our communities, and not just for the young either.)
It has fallen now thank god. See Table 5 which is quite frightening really. Obviously there are many more causes than economic but sadly for many hysteresis (long term damage caused by short term events) will have created long lasting problems.
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  #47  
Old 06-03-2019, 03:18 PM
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It seems pretty obvious to me that austerity is to blame. And in so many cases, cuts have been a false economy. Look at children's services; cuts to early intervention and programmes like Sure Start have just resulted in increased demand for far more expensive hard end interventions in child protection and taking children into care. In schools, a combination of reduced funding; reduced support from other services (such as social care) and a high stakes accountability framework has led to big increases in exclusions and, even worse, 'off-rolling' (in effect exclusions without a proper process).

So yes, cuts to police are part of the cause; but cuts to other services are far more important.
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  #48  
Old 06-03-2019, 04:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
It has fallen now thank god. See Table 5 which is quite frightening really. Obviously there are many more causes than economic but sadly for many hysteresis (long term damage caused by short term events) will have created long lasting problems.
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Thanks, but that link is to unemployment stats up to 2012, so not strongly relevant to why this past year has seen such a rise in teenagers/students involved in knife crime.

I think there are multiple reasons, and incidents happen for multiple reasons.

But the one I’ve heard most often from those with local knowledge of these incidents is gangs involved in drugs 1) fighting over the most lucrative territories, and 2) that they are pressing increasingly young people to provide the courier services for them.
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  #49  
Old 06-03-2019, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Selhurst Celtic View Post
I'm going on Dragon's Den with my Kevlar school uniform pitch. Wish me luck.
For some reason I don't think Kevlar is used in non-ballistic armour (f**k knows why I think that).
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  #50  
Old 06-03-2019, 04:53 PM
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I think she's right, but only technically. Policing numbers probably don't make much of a difference, because for the most part police numbers are fairly small - however what you don't have with low police numbers is the flexibility to surge patrolling numbers and police activity in areas where knife crime starts rising - and that's a problem - because when you've got 'gangs fighting each other' etc, what you would traditionally do is flood the area with extra patrols and effectively shut down the capacity of free movement and operation of gang members.

In turn that would make it harder for gangs to generally operate their more driving factors, drug dealing and other income based crimes.

The problem of lower police numbers isn't that it means more crime. Crime and criminal activity is rarely deterred by prison or the police. It means a less effective distribution of resources to target crime and those committing crime, meaning that criminals 'active shelf life' remains much higher - meaning in turn that 'gang members' remain active for longer - meaning more recruiting, more crime and more influence - resulting in more violence (as there are more gangs and people affiliated with gangs, there becomes more conflict between them).

See the issue of police numbers isn't that they stop criminals from committing crimes, but that they arrest criminals and that interrupts the 'lifespan' of criminals.

So with knife crime, actual police numbers probably don't make much difference over why someone is going to stab someone. What it does do however is create better resources for shutting down areas of problem, and reducing the time that criminals get to spend in social influence (which produces and encourages others into crime).
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  #51  
Old 06-03-2019, 05:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brighton_eagle View Post
Unless you consider Police on the ground to be part of that deterrent?
I think deterrent is wrong. For the most part deterrents are an ineffective means of preventing crime, especially violent crime, which doesn't tend to be reasoned out. Deterrent probably could influence some people from carrying a knife, but its unlikely to significantly reduce stabbings (it might a bit, but as a rule that will be among people who carry a knife because they're scared of other people attacking them with knives).

What police numbers allow you to do, is allocated greater resources to targeting and removing criminals who might well be carrying weapons for 'business reasons' faster and more effectively. These tend to be the people that other knife carriers are scared of. Also these people tend towards more habitual patterns of crime (low end organised crime and petty crime). What tends to happen with higher police numbers is that that low end organised and petty crime gets resolved more efficiently and removes a criminal influencer more frequently and efficiently.

Gangs need people to function, as they have a fairly high turn over. What tends to happen isn't that the gang leaders and habitual criminals dry up, but that they spend less time capable of influencing others (which in turn coincidentally results in less people carrying knives in fear).

The problem of people in 'fear' carrying knives, is that they're likely to use it once they lose their reason. Policing numbers aren't a deterrent because people are scared of prison. 6 months or even five years is small change compared to being stabbed to death. However by accelerating the lifecycle of crime to prison of criminals in society, then you have less fear, which means over time less people carrying knives, and less stabbings.
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  #52  
Old 06-03-2019, 05:29 PM
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If there were no police at all crime would obviously go up so how anyone can think losing 20,000 of them over a few years would not also mean crime going up is cuckoo, cuckoo, cuckoo.

They arrive in May too, don't they? Apt.
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  #53  
Old 06-03-2019, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
For some reason I don't think Kevlar is used in non-ballistic armour (f**k knows why I think that).
I wish I knew this earlier. Deborah Meaden mugged me right off.
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  #54  
Old 06-03-2019, 05:53 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
I think deterrent is wrong. For the most part deterrents are an ineffective means of preventing crime, especially violent crime, which doesn't tend to be reasoned out. Deterrent probably could influence some people from carrying a knife, but its unlikely to significantly reduce stabbings (it might a bit, but as a rule that will be among people who carry a knife because they're scared of other people attacking them with knives).

What police numbers allow you to do, is allocated greater resources to targeting and removing criminals who might well be carrying weapons for 'business reasons' faster and more effectively. These tend to be the people that other knife carriers are scared of. Also these people tend towards more habitual patterns of crime (low end organised crime and petty crime). What tends to happen with higher police numbers is that that low end organised and petty crime gets resolved more efficiently and removes a criminal influencer more frequently and efficiently.

Gangs need people to function, as they have a fairly high turn over. What tends to happen isn't that the gang leaders and habitual criminals dry up, but that they spend less time capable of influencing others (which in turn coincidentally results in less people carrying knives in fear).

The problem of people in 'fear' carrying knives, is that they're likely to use it once they lose their reason. Policing numbers aren't a deterrent because people are scared of prison. 6 months or even five years is small change compared to being stabbed to death. However by accelerating the lifecycle of crime to prison of criminals in society, then you have less fear, which means over time less people carrying knives, and less stabbings.
I saw a police programme on telly about a decade ago in Reading. There was one guy (an addict) who would roam the multi storeys breaking into about 70 cars a day to steal things to fund his habit. The police could tell when he was not in prison by the crime statistics. He was a one man crime wave.
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  #55  
Old 06-03-2019, 06:09 PM
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This thread touches on politics but concerns much more than that. It’s certainly very clear evidence that having a politics forum that is separated from life is a completely ludicrous idea.
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  #56  
Old 06-03-2019, 06:14 PM
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Man in his 20 s stabbed to death in leyton this afternoon
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Old 06-03-2019, 06:22 PM
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You cannot possibly correlate police numbers with any crimes. (not in a statistical way, as you can never prove something 100%) There are far too many other factors to incorporate into any meaningful discussion of figures.

Even Thatcher said "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics"
And then she went onto give "seasonally-adjusted" unemployment figures, "for those out of work AND claiming unemployment benefit"

At least with Brexit, access to flick-knives might be limited,....or not
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  #58  
Old 06-03-2019, 06:32 PM
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Don’t think for one moment that the Police are not politically motivated, will skewer facts and evidence. Falling police numbers undermines their control and Police leaders will respond on the streets in a churlish way to make a point in funding.
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  #59  
Old 06-03-2019, 06:39 PM
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It seems pretty obvious to me that austerity is to blame. And in so many cases, cuts have been a false economy. .
Absolutely.

May said that spending money on Austerity would lead to more austerity. She is the worst economist ever.

It's like Keynes and the paradox of thrift never happened. The answer to the collapse of support and services is...more cuts?

bizarre and frightening
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Old 06-03-2019, 06:42 PM
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The problem with saying the answer is stiffer sentences is that the cells are all full.

Prison doesn't work - although some people need to be got off the streets, that's for sure.
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