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  #81  
Old 10-06-2019, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Am Phibian View Post
He’s also being disingenuous at best about holding on to the £39billion. So Boris - if we don’t pay what we owe how are we going to enter into trade talks?
Because they need us more than we need them. BMW would just be ****ed.
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  #82  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Les Butler View Post
I'm all for UK staying in the EU as all of this is a joke but the UK have to have something to bargain with other than Mays begging and Pleeeeeeeeeeeeese give me a deal bargaining which got her no-where especially with the EU knowing the UK's hand with the no deal.

Other than that it will be nope that's the deal welcome the backstop.

Yep it might be bollocks but they do need that dosh.
It is kind of odd, that in negotiating a deal that is almost entirely about ensuring the continuity of trade whilst we negotiate a trade deal, that the leverage seems to be entirely about 'walking away from the deal' and whether or not we welch on a sum - rather than access to the UK for the EU businesses and trade.

Of that 39bn, 4 or 5bn is actually directly owed (pensions, paid commitments) the rest is to do with agreements we have going forwards with the EU.

Anyhow, the point about negotiation, isn't that you play hardball until you get what you want, and if you don't you throw your self under a bus. Its about concessions.

The biggest problem at present, is the Backstop - and that's an agreement that we won from the EU. Which is absurd, were in a position where we're trying to get them to renegotiate a concession that we won from them in the first place. And we're going to win that by walking away, which would mean a hard border in Ireland would be inevitable (in a No Deal).

And this is a group that is adamant about taking back control of our borders (except it seems this one, which is the only actual border in the UK with the EU - in fact the only border that the UK essentially can have).

No wonder the whole thing is a s**tshow. We're voting against a concession we wanted, whilst talking about taking back borders we don't want.
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  #83  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:08 PM
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Boris is totally right!

The full deal needs to be agreed by both sides before we hand over any money.

If the Divorce happens we hand over the money otherwise what are we paying for?!
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  #84  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Spindle View Post
Because they need us more than we need them. BMW would just be ****ed.
Not really. We're interdependent, the difference is that they have established trade deals and agreements with markets world wide, and we still have to negotiate them. As such, BMW might take a short term hit, but it only has to recover sales in other markets, and the costs of relocation of work (which other countries eager to get the work will pay incentives for).

Where as if we lose BMW in the UK, the impact is more serious. We'd have no capacity to replace that work, employment and industry lost.

And if we put tariffs on cars from the EU, then they'd do the same, and we'd probably lose Japanese car manufacturing in the UK as well.
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  #85  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
It is kind of odd, that in negotiating a deal that is almost entirely about ensuring the continuity of trade whilst we negotiate a trade deal, that the leverage seems to be entirely about 'walking away from the deal' and whether or not we welch on a sum - rather than access to the UK for the EU businesses and trade.

Of that 39bn, 4 or 5bn is actually directly owed (pensions, paid commitments) the rest is to do with agreements we have going forwards with the EU.

Anyhow, the point about negotiation, isn't that you play hardball until you get what you want, and if you don't you throw your self under a bus. Its about concessions.

The biggest problem at present, is the Backstop - and that's an agreement that we won from the EU. Which is absurd, were in a position where we're trying to get them to renegotiate a concession that we won from them in the first place. And we're going to win that by walking away, which would mean a hard border in Ireland would be inevitable (in a No Deal).

And this is a group that is adamant about taking back control of our borders (except it seems this one, which is the only actual border in the UK with the EU - in fact the only border that the UK essentially can have).

No wonder the whole thing is a s**tshow. We're voting against a concession we wanted, whilst talking about taking back borders we don't want.
Never thought any of it made sense to be honest,basically leaving a club that you still want all the benefits from and have no say where as before you had a fecking big say....Anyways around in circles we go again repeating the same tired old lines and arguments,what a mess.
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  #86  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by SussexRed&Blue View Post
Boris is totally right!

The full deal needs to be agreed by both sides before we hand over any money.

If the Divorce happens we hand over the money otherwise what are we paying for?!
We are paying for standing commitments. Not paying will be the equivalent of defaulting on national debt and will damage our economy going forward and our reputation. A price worth paying when we're looking for alternative global deals?
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  #87  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Les Butler View Post
Depends which way you look on it, remainers will say its a debt and Brexiteers will say its a bargaining tool for something they want...Both sides do not want want what the other wants so it's a continuous game of going round in circles.

Such is Brexit.
Does it depend? It's spending we committed to in the 2014 budget, plus future liabilities (such as Farage's pension).

We owe this money (indeed legally owe it also). The idea that we can refuse to pay as a bargaining chip, at a time we are going to have to try and make trade deals with other countries, is absolutely ******* insane. Just a sign to the world that we can't be trusted to honour our commitments.
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  #88  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by SussexRed&Blue View Post
Boris is totally right!

The full deal needs to be agreed by both sides before we hand over any money.

If the Divorce happens we hand over the money otherwise what are we paying for?!
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  #89  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by SussexRed&Blue View Post
Boris is totally right!

The full deal needs to be agreed by both sides before we hand over any money.

If the Divorce happens we hand over the money otherwise what are we paying for?!
Pensions for UK Citizens living in the EU, agreements with the EU that we've signed up to prior to leaving the EU. I would be surprised if we managed to actually avoid paying this, without ending up losing legal action to recover the money. And it might not be advisable, because the 39m should have been more according to the EU. All the EU has to show is that this money relates directly to a series of EU agreements, which the UK was part of, prior to leaving on the 31st.

Problem here, is that legally, they've got a full house, and its not in their interest to fold, because they know that the best we can have is the same hand. To reborrow the poker approach to negotiation that seems to be Boris Johnsons understanding.

No deal will cost the EU a lot more than a deal - And the best way they have of offsetting that is to take the UK to court damages and losses from breaching agreements and contracts - and if they're not stupid, they'll levy costs and every single penny that can justify - and we'll have to settle.

The only real prospect of this ending well, is if we actually owe the EU less than 39bn... but that seems unlikely to be the case.
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  #90  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by dogstar721 View Post
Pensions for UK Citizens living in the EU, agreements with the EU that we've signed up to prior to leaving the EU. I would be surprised if we managed to actually avoid paying this, without ending up losing legal action to recover the money. And it might not be advisable, because the 39m should have been more according to the EU. All the EU has to show is that this money relates directly to a series of EU agreements, which the UK was part of, prior to leaving on the 31st.

Problem here, is that legally, they've got a full house, and its not in their interest to fold, because they know that the best we can have is the same hand. To reborrow the poker approach to negotiation that seems to be Boris Johnsons understanding.

No deal will cost the EU a lot more than a deal - And the best way they have of offsetting that is to take the UK to court damages and losses from breaching agreements and contracts - and if they're not stupid, they'll levy costs and every single penny that can justify - and we'll have to settle.

The only real prospect of this ending well, is if we actually owe the EU less than 39bn... but that seems unlikely to be the case.
Ok Cheers for the summary I didn't realise the £39bn relates to existing agreed ongoing financial commitments.
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  #91  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Heb 7:4 View Post
Does it depend? It's spending we committed to in the 2014 budget, plus future liabilities (such as Farage's pension).

We owe this money (indeed legally owe it also). The idea that we can refuse to pay as a bargaining chip, at a time we are going to have to try and make trade deals with other countries, is absolutely ******* insane. Just a sign to the world that we can't be trusted to honour our commitments.
This is the remainer in you speaking again, I think as one of the largest traders in the world other countries will know this is bargaining ploy by the UK, it would not matter one jot to them and know it will all eventually come out in the wash.

Countries have trade wars tariffs,hold back money all the time, what's so special about the UK not doing the same to try to get what it wants ?

I held back money from the builder of my house until I got what I wanted,he was going to sue me ,threatened me (which was funny) all sorts but in the end we came to a compromise, I got what I wanted and so did he... It works
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  #92  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:39 PM
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  #93  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Stellavista View Post
We are paying for standing commitments. Not paying will be the equivalent of defaulting on national debt and will damage our economy going forward and our reputation. A price worth paying when we're looking for alternative global deals?
Yes true if the £39 Billion relates to existing ongoing financial commitments we have agreed to rather than an additional amount we should honour it.

We have never reneged on our financial commitments before and this may result in a reduction in our credit rating and an increase in interest rates to support the Pound.
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  #94  
Old 10-06-2019, 03:44 PM
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Again I think it's stupid to leave but it's obvious that those who feel the same want all the bargaining tools of leave the EU to disappear because then we are at the same standstill with just begging for a deal that will not pass.

Then hopefully when people are sick enough of it there might be another referendum.
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  #95  
Old 10-06-2019, 04:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Les Butler View Post
This is the remainer in you speaking again, I think as one of the largest traders in the world other countries will know this is bargaining ploy by the UK, it would not matter one jot to them and know it will all eventually come out in the wash.

Countries have trade wars tariffs,hold back money all the time, what's so special about the UK not doing the same to try to get what it wants ?

I held back money from the builder of my house until I got what I wanted,he was going to sue me ,threatened me (which was funny) all sorts but in the end we came to a compromise, I got what I wanted and so did he... It works
To use your builder analogy, the UK is the builder and the EU is you, although I don't think that was your point.

Expecting the EU to suddenly fold, with the obvious mess the UK is in, and all of the evidence suggesting this isn't going to happen (e.g. near total EU solidarity), is just wishful thinking - which I think loads of Brexit supporters are guilty of.
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  #96  
Old 10-06-2019, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Les Butler View Post
Again I think it's stupid to leave but it's obvious that those who feel the same want all the bargaining tools of leave the EU to disappear because then we are at the same standstill with just begging for a deal that will not pass.

Then hopefully when people are sick enough of it there might be another referendum.
Bargaining tools

I'm still waiting to see one. The only two we've even talked about are

1: Leaving with no deal - ie ******* ourselves over to get what we want
2: Not paying - ie ******* ourselves over to get what we want.

There are no bargaining tools. There never have been.
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  #97  
Old 10-06-2019, 04:46 PM
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Bargaining tools

I'm still waiting to see one. The only two we've even talked about are

1: Leaving with no deal - ie ******* ourselves over to get what we want
2: Not paying - ie ******* ourselves over to get what we want.

There are no bargaining tools. There never have been.
And the only thing to bargain over is the PD, and we don't know what we want to put in it.
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  #98  
Old 10-06-2019, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by mte103 View Post
To use your builder analogy, the UK is the builder and the EU is you, although I don't think that was your point.

Expecting the EU to suddenly fold, with the obvious mess the UK is in, and all of the evidence suggesting this isn't going to happen (e.g. near total EU solidarity), is just wishful thinking - which I think loads of Brexit supporters are guilty of.
I prefer the EU as the builder and the UK as Les.

The builder has dug the foundations, built the walls and has taken the roof off ready for the new one. It is at that point, halfway through the negotiations/build that we decide we don't want to pay. Worse still, we told the builder we don't want to pay and all his builder mates heard about it as we broadcast it nationally.
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  #99  
Old 10-06-2019, 04:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Butler View Post
This is the remainer in you speaking again, I think as one of the largest traders in the world other countries will know this is bargaining ploy by the UK, it would not matter one jot to them and know it will all eventually come out in the wash.

Countries have trade wars tariffs,hold back money all the time, what's so special about the UK not doing the same to try to get what it wants ?

I held back money from the builder of my house until I got what I wanted,he was going to sue me ,threatened me (which was funny) all sorts but in the end we came to a compromise, I got what I wanted and so did he... It works
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  #100  
Old 10-06-2019, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
Bargaining tools

I'm still waiting to see one. The only two we've even talked about are

1: Leaving with no deal - ie ******* ourselves over to get what we want
2: Not paying - ie ******* ourselves over to get what we want.

There are no bargaining tools. There never have been.
And the grown ups know this
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