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  #44401  
Old 16-09-2020, 03:49 PM
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3.991 UK cases recorded today.
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  #44402  
Old 16-09-2020, 03:51 PM
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Can I ask, has anyone, or does anyone know of someone who has been contacted by track and trace because they went to a pub or restaurant where there was a case?
Not a pub but yes for a golf club.
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  #44403  
Old 16-09-2020, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
3.991 UK cases recorded today.
And likely higher if we had the testing capacity.

172 hospitalisations in England on 14th September versus 84 on 7th September.
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  #44404  
Old 16-09-2020, 03:57 PM
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I have no idea whether Covid will come storming back in a months time or remain manageable.

It does feel like we are at a cross roads though.

It also feels like the bus driver has no map whatsoever and keeps telling the passengers conflicting information.

What a time to have a mad megalomaniac dictator running a government of incompetents.
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  #44405  
Old 16-09-2020, 03:59 PM
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Originally Posted by se1eagle View Post
Yeah I did offer to sort that out last year by moving it to an auto-scaling platform on AWS, and it was going to be run past Dave but didn't hear back
If he ever gets back to you, feel free to steer him my way to transact the AWS subscription and any ongoing management
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  #44406  
Old 16-09-2020, 04:28 PM
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A work colleague just told me that she has been selected by random for a Covid Test and it is due to arrive tomorrow.

Good to know we are sending tests out at random to people who have absolutely nothing wrong with them while those who think they might have covid can't get a test.

Excellent use of resources.
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  #44407  
Old 16-09-2020, 04:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
My granddaughter has been at school now for one week and a half, and she has a constant dry cough. so have several other children in her group. More than half the school run pick ups are being done by grandparents, including my wife. She takes her home and waits for my daughter teacher to return from her school. In the meantime, my granddaughter who is just seven does not understand the importance of social distancing or just forgets about it, and spends much of her time coughing in my wife's face, not deliberately of course, but inevitably. Nobody is being tested, most have given up on it, so we just wait and hope it is a common cold.
For someone who spends so much time sitting on his moral high horse you have been incredibly irresponsible. The NHS guidelines on quarantine are:

When to self-isolate
You must self-isolate immediately if:
  • you have any symptoms of coronavirus (a high temperature, a new, continuous cough or a loss or change to your sense of smell or taste)
  • you've tested positive for coronavirus – this means you have coronavirus
  • you live with someone who has symptoms or tested positive
  • someone in your support bubble has symptoms or tested positive
  • you're told to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace
  • you arrive in the UK from a country with a high coronavirus risk – see GOV.UK: how to self-isolate when you travel to the UK
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  #44408  
Old 16-09-2020, 05:18 PM
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Boris appeared in front of the Liaison Committee this afternoon.

He was asked '..... you set the moonshot target of ramping up to 10m tests a day'

Boris: 'I don't recognise the figure you have just given'.

MP: 'You said that in public'.

I know Boris talked about testing millions a day but not sure whether he actually said 10m a day.

Saying he doesn't recognise the figure is obviously a nonsense given it has been widely quoted.
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  #44409  
Old 16-09-2020, 07:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinger1 View Post
For someone who spends so much time sitting on his moral high horse you have been incredibly irresponsible. The NHS guidelines on quarantine are:

When to self-isolate
You must self-isolate immediately if:
  • you have any symptoms of coronavirus (a high temperature, a new, continuous cough or a loss or change to your sense of smell or taste)
  • you've tested positive for coronavirus – this means you have coronavirus
  • you live with someone who has symptoms or tested positive
  • someone in your support bubble has symptoms or tested positive
  • you're told to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace
  • you arrive in the UK from a country with a high coronavirus risk – see GOV.UK: how to self-isolate when you travel to the UK
I'm a teacher myself, if we told everyone with a cough to currently self isolate there would currently be no teachers or staff in. We had 7 off Monday with a cough but once one of the students got a negative test they all returned. With the current situation of testing, schools would be empty if everyone with a symptom isolated.

Last edited by Cpfcjoseph; 16-09-2020 at 07:49 PM.
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  #44410  
Old 16-09-2020, 07:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpfcjoseph View Post
I'm a teacher myself, if we told everyone with a cough to currently self isolate there would currently be no teachers or staff in. We had 7 off Monday with a cough but once one of the students got a negative test they all returned. With the current situation of testing schools would be empty if everyone with a symptom isolated.
I appreciate it the reality is very difficult for staff but pupils with symptoms should be self-isolating.

What to do if a pupil is displaying symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19)

If anyone in your school becomes unwell with a new, continuous cough or a high temperature, or has a loss of, or change in, their normal sense of taste or smell (anosmia),
they must be sent home and be advised to follow the guidance for households with possible or confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) infection. This sets out that they must:

• self-isolate for at least 10 days
• arrange to have a test to see if they have coronavirus (COVID-19)

Action list

1. In an emergency, call 999 if they are seriously ill or injured or their life is at risk. Do not visit the GP, pharmacy, urgent care centre or a hospital except in an emergency.
2. Call parents/legal guardian to collect pupil and take them home. Advise them that all household members will need to isolate and refer them to the guidance for households with possible or confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) infection.
3. While the pupil is awaiting collection, move them to an isolated room and open a window for ventilation. If it is not possible to isolate them, move them to an area which is at least 2 metres away from other people.
4. Staff caring for a pupil while they are awaiting collection should maintain 2 metre distancing. If not possible, for example with a young child, they should wear suitable.
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  #44411  
Old 16-09-2020, 08:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
A work colleague just told me that she has been selected by random for a Covid Test and it is due to arrive tomorrow.

Good to know we are sending tests out at random to people who have absolutely nothing wrong with them while those who think they might have covid can't get a test.

Excellent use of resources.
Only way to get a true picture of how many cases there are in the population currently (both symptomatic & asymptomatic) and where the true trends are.

If you're going to be making policy decisions that's the sort of data you need to have.
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  #44412  
Old 16-09-2020, 08:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by se1eagle View Post
And likely higher if we had the testing capacity.

172 hospitalisations in England on 14th September versus 84 on 7th September.
I think WE would argue false negatives, small numbers and no different from flu. Hopefully he is right.
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  #44413  
Old 16-09-2020, 08:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
A work colleague just told me that she has been selected by random for a Covid Test and it is due to arrive tomorrow.

Good to know we are sending tests out at random to people who have absolutely nothing wrong with them while those who think they might have covid can't get a test.

Excellent use of resources.
Is that the antibody test? My wife received a letter advising her that she had been selected at random although she had to sign up and give her consent to take part in the study.

It was a finger prick test which took about 15 minutes to give a result. She then had to complete a fairly comprehensive questionnaire on line and provide a photo of the test stick.

Although she had a persistent cough back in February the test was negative, albeit the disclaimer is that it is not 100% accurate at the individual level.
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  #44414  
Old 16-09-2020, 09:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinger1 View Post
For someone who spends so much time sitting on his moral high horse you have been incredibly irresponsible. The NHS guidelines on quarantine are:

When to self-isolate
You must self-isolate immediately if:
  • you have any symptoms of coronavirus (a high temperature, a new, continuous cough or a loss or change to your sense of smell or taste)
  • you've tested positive for coronavirus – this means you have coronavirus
  • you live with someone who has symptoms or tested positive
  • someone in your support bubble has symptoms or tested positive
  • you're told to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace
  • you arrive in the UK from a country with a high coronavirus risk – see GOV.UK: how to self-isolate when you travel to the UK
None of those apply. If my granddaughter gets the usual kids symptoms which are different to adult symptoms, like diarrhea for example then self isolation will be considered. Remember this though, if we do self isolate, then my daughter cannot work, cannot pay her rent and could be evicted. Think on that one, and then agree it was safe and responsible for the government to send kids back to school, when infection levels are rising again.
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  #44415  
Old 16-09-2020, 09:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hpalace View Post
A work colleague just told me that she has been selected by random for a Covid Test and it is due to arrive tomorrow.

Good to know we are sending tests out at random to people who have absolutely nothing wrong with them while those who think they might have covid can't get a test.

Excellent use of resources.
Drop in the ocean compared to the 100k+ a day being given to healthy people because they live or work in the care sector or are going into hospital for elective admission.
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  #44416  
Old 16-09-2020, 09:17 PM
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Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
None of those apply. If my granddaughter gets the usual kids symptoms which are different to adult symptoms, like diarrhea for example then self isolation will be considered. Remember this though, if we do self isolate, then my daughter cannot work, cannot pay her rent and could be evicted. Think on that one, and then agree it was safe and responsible for the government to send kids back to school, when infection levels are rising again.
So you don’t think schools should have gone back? How much children’s education are you willing to sacrifice?
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  #44417  
Old 16-09-2020, 09:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sheepy View Post
Only way to get a true picture of how many cases there are in the population currently (both symptomatic & asymptomatic) and where the true trends are.

If you're going to be making policy decisions that's the sort of data you need to have.
I quite agree unless you are at the point where you cannot test sick people en masse. At that point random testing becomes somewhat irrelevant.
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  #44418  
Old 16-09-2020, 09:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreatGonzo View Post
Drop in the ocean compared to the 100k+ a day being given to healthy people because they live or work in the care sector or are going into hospital for elective admission.
Again a different scenario


Testing the care sector protects the vulnerable. It also seems bollocks as the care sector are constantly calling the radio stations saying they are not and never have been tested. Sheila O’Brian on LBC seems to do half an hour or so on this every day. If however they were being tested this has far more merit than testing randomly.

Those going into hospital again is to protect vulnerable in hospital. An outbreak there could have dire consequences.

Randomly testing 25 year olds who have no symptoms when you can’t test sick people? Totally pointless.
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  #44419  
Old 16-09-2020, 09:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave_who_ru View Post
Is that the antibody test? My wife received a letter advising her that she had been selected at random although she had to sign up and give her consent to take part in the study.

It was a finger prick test which took about 15 minutes to give a result. She then had to complete a fairly comprehensive questionnaire on line and provide a photo of the test stick.

Although she had a persistent cough back in February the test was negative, albeit the disclaimer is that it is not 100% accurate at the individual level.
Nope it was/is an actual regular covid test.
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  #44420  
Old 16-09-2020, 10:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Windsor_Eagle View Post
CFR on today's data is 3.1%. Longstanding epidemiological theory strongly points that the for every death you have 100 cases (ill, with symptoms) and for every case you have 100 infections. CFR is roughly 100 times the IFR. Thus, IFR of COVID-19 is likely in the 0.03% region. The caveat being this has been mass-tested so the rule might be nearer 10 than 100. So the CI for the IFR is 0.03-0.3%
There's surely no way it can be 0.03%.

In the UK, using the lowest 41600 death figure divided by the 68m population, means 0.06% of the entire UK population died of COVID.

And that's the entire population. I think it's safe assume that the entire population hasn't been infected yet.

USA and Brazil - 540m people between them and 0.06% again of the entire population died.

You can argue, oh well these are the worse affected countries, but we are dividing by the entire population here so it's a fruitless exercise for countries with low number of infections.
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