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  #1  
Old 12-03-2019, 09:36 AM
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Relegation statistics - 12 March 2019

Here is the latest relegation statistics table from Simon Gleave, (Head of Analysis at To view the link you have to Register or Login):



He comments:

"Wins for Cardiff, Newcastle, Brighton and Southampton haven't changed things that much. Huddersfield are now 100% to 2 decimal places (ie at least 99.95%), Fulham's chance is 99.91% chance. 34-36 points likely to be enough to stay up so probably one win secures it. Palace are projected to finish on 42 points."
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Old 12-03-2019, 09:48 AM
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Guessing Cardiff must have an extraordinarily hard run in to be 82%.

This time four years ago Leicester had 17pts. I suppose they would have been 100% back then.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:11 AM
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Probably agree with that, for me the weekend of the 30th could pretty much make things clear. Beat Huddersfield and Cardiff fail to beat Chelsea and we are home and dry. Lose to Huddersfield and we may start to feel a bit nervous with our next 4 games liikely to be Newcastle, Arsenal and Spurs away and Man City at home with the nightmare scenario of needing a result at Cardiff to ensure Premier League status.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Am Phibian View Post
Guessing Cardiff must have an extraordinarily hard run in to be 82%.

This time four years ago Leicester had 17pts. I suppose they would have been 100% back then.
They've still got to play us, Brighton, Burnley and Fulham. I'm really surprised the projection has them that doomed.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:18 AM
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After watching that pile of crap on Saturday I struggle to believe that we have only 1% chance of relegation. We still have to play City, Gooners and Spuds.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
After watching that pile of crap on Saturday I struggle to believe that we have only 1% chance of relegation. We still have to play City, Gooners and Spuds.
You feel that way because you've isolated Palace's performance and not realised that everyone picking up points at the weekend was bad for all fighting it out at the bottom. We have 8 games to find 1 win and a couple of draws. Even during our worst spells earlier in the season we were never in that kind of stinking form. We'll get the points we need as, by and large, we have had decent mid-table form over the last 10 games or so. Saturday was a kick because it was a frustrating tale we've seen before made all the worse by the scummers from the south coast lauding it BUT we have <2% chance of finishing on less than 37 points I reckon.

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Old 12-03-2019, 10:26 AM
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They've still got to play us, Brighton, Burnley and Fulham. I'm really surprised the projection has them that doomed.
5 away and only 3 at home. Away form is woeful, 8 points from 42 and 3 home games are Chelsea, Liverpool and us. So despite the fact they have Brighton, Burnley and Fulham they are all away and would have to win 2 of those and beat us just to get to 37, which with their goal difference may not be enough.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:29 AM
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What were the stats for Swansea to be relegated after 30 games last season? They were 4 points clear of 18th place at that point. We are currently 5 points above Cardiff (albeit with goal diff advantage).
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:39 AM
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We still have to play City
As an aside will our three doubles in one season in the top flight be a record for us?
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:42 AM
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Don’t know what the relegation odds but it was interesting to see the points tallies after 30 games, they are so similar to this season
Bournemouth 33
Newcastle 32
Swansea 31 -17
Huddersfield 31 -25
West Ham 30 -21
Southampton 28 -15
Palace 27 -20

So you could argue we are this seasons Cardiff and we survived comfortably.

Last edited by Mr Bo Jangles; 13-03-2019 at 07:46 AM.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Am Phibian View Post
Guessing Cardiff must have an extraordinarily hard run in to be 82%.

This time four years ago Leicester had 17pts. I suppose they would have been 100% back then.
The Leicester survival story from 2014-2015 is hugely overhyped.

They had an extraordinarily gentle run-in. After losing away to Spurs on March 21, they had 6 home matches against West Ham, Swansea, Chelsea (the only one they lost), Newcastle, Southampton and QPR; and 3 away matches at West Brom, Burnley and Sunderland.

Cardiff's run-in opponents include Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and Man Utd.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:47 AM
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Warnock has never had a successful Prem season by keeping a club up. Cardiff are doomed.
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Old 12-03-2019, 10:50 AM
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Donít know what the relegation odds but it was interesting to see the points tallies aftef 30 games, they so similar to this seasons
Bournemouth 33
Newcastle 32
Swansea 31 -17
Huddersfield 31 -25
West Ham 30 -21
Southampton 28 -15
Palace 27 -20

So you could argue we are this seasons Cardiff and we survived comfortably.
Looking at our run in last season we had Huddersfield, Burnley, Brighton, Watford, Leicester, Stoke and West Brom. Cardiff donít have the luxury of an easy run in.
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Old 12-03-2019, 11:34 AM
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What were the stats for Swansea to be relegated after 30 games last season? They were 4 points clear of 18th place at that point. We are currently 5 points above Cardiff (albeit with goal diff advantage).
I don't have that information to hand but I agree that the situation is similar.

I guess the key is that if you are in this position and take only 2 points from your last 8 matches, you're going down.
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Old 12-03-2019, 11:38 AM
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What were the stats for Swansea to be relegated after 30 games last season? They were 4 points clear of 18th place at that point. We are currently 5 points above Cardiff (albeit with goal diff advantage).
The best I can do is this which is from 17 March 2018. Swansea were much more likely to go down then than Palace are now but it was still an outside shot. They made it a certainly by taking 2 points out of 24 at the end.

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Old 12-03-2019, 11:42 AM
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Guessing Cardiff must have an extraordinarily hard run in to be 82%.

This time four years ago Leicester had 17pts. I suppose they would have been 100% back then.
The highest Leicester City were to go down in 2014/2015 was just over 70% but that was a much more open relegation battle than this year. This year, 2 are basically down and another is 2 points adrift of the rest whilst also being crap.

In 2014/2015, nothing was decided at around this stage. This was the situation at the beginning of March 2015.

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Old 12-03-2019, 11:45 AM
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I guess the key is that if you are in this position and take only 2 points from your last 8 matches, you're going down.
Quite within our grasp, judging by Saturday's cowardly and clueless shambles of a performance. Hopefully the players rediscover some pride and produce enough to stave off what would be an absolute catastrophe for both them and this club.

They've shown that they're more than capable of that with recent wins but, for me, it remains to be seen how much Saturday's surrender has taken out of them. None of our remaining games are easy - not even doomed Huddersfield (perhaps especially them). Our boys will have to fight and scrap for every point. Do they have it in them? I bloody well hope so...
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Old 12-03-2019, 03:30 PM
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Quite within our grasp, judging by Saturday's cowardly and clueless shambles of a performance. Hopefully the players rediscover some pride and produce enough to stave off what would be an absolute catastrophe for both them and this club.

They've shown that they're more than capable of that with recent wins but, for me, it remains to be seen how much Saturday's surrender has taken out of them. None of our remaining games are easy - not even doomed Huddersfield (perhaps especially them). Our boys will have to fight and scrap for every point. Do they have it in them? I bloody well hope so...
I think this is a bit of an overexaggeration.

We've seen Palace play some shit matches every season for time immemorial. This season has had a few frustrating ones, but in all of them (losing to teams at home we really shouldn't be) we've dominated the game but lacked potency in the final 1/3. That is not capitulating or rolling over.

Indeed, bar a handful of matches performances have been largely better than the points haul and we have now scored in 13 consecutive games in all competitions. Our form is likely to be mid-table at worst for the last 10 or so league games. By every metric we have shown nothing to suggest that we don't have enough fight to get at least another 3 or 4 points from the last 8 games.

We have a manager who is renowned for digging out results on a fairly consistent basis. We have players who have been involved in some form of relegation scrap in each of the last 6 seasons. We have found, since 2010 took over, that when a game desperately needed to be won (and I mean season-defining games) they have been with the exception of the 2016 FA Cup final.

We are not the only side that will be getting jittery. I believe that we'll show more than enough to stay up despite my current feeling pretty deflated by Saturday's kick in the bollocks.
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Old 12-03-2019, 03:51 PM
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I think this is a bit of an overexaggeration.
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Old 12-03-2019, 04:06 PM
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Quite within our grasp, judging by Saturday's cowardly and clueless shambles of a performance. Hopefully the players rediscover some pride and produce enough to stave off what would be an absolute catastrophe for both them and this club.

They've shown that they're more than capable of that with recent wins but, for me, it remains to be seen how much Saturday's surrender has taken out of them. None of our remaining games are easy - not even doomed Huddersfield (perhaps especially them). Our boys will have to fight and scrap for every point. Do they have it in them? I bloody well hope so...
We'll stay up, but nothing wrong with your post at all.
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