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  #121  
Old 26-05-2010, 10:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
I've made money from Eurovision the last few times I have done it, for the reasons that Fin has explained above. Most of the layers are clueless so a little knowledge and in depth analysis is very useful. Mind you so is a knowledge of local voting patterns!
Plus, like X factor you may have a lot of casual, not very savvy punters who will take the first "reasonable looking" price that they see.
Could you elaborate?
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  #122  
Old 26-05-2010, 10:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Cheers Herts, interesting to hear, is it also the case that a lot of songs will shorten up right after they're on and then drift once people forget about them to a certain extent?
Of course you would have to use common sense and not blindly back a song which is clearly a dog.

Tempted to download the semis onto my phone and watch them on the train, the thought of it makes me cringe but might be worth a few quid to know the good ones from the bad
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  #123  
Old 26-05-2010, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
Of course you would have to use common sense and not blindly back a song which is clearly a dog.

Tempted to download the semis onto my phone and watch them on the train, the thought of it makes me cringe but might be worth a few quid to know the good ones from the bad
It's not the 'good ones' that win in Eurovision though is it? Key thing I suppose is to work out which might get the most votes (as opposed to personal likes and dislikes).
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  #124  
Old 26-05-2010, 10:51 AM
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True but was more thinking about preparing for kneejerk reactions and making money there. Working out who will vote for who is far too complicated though am sure there are sites which would speculate (based on past voting) what is likely to happen

Also worth looking at market moves on Betfair that have already happened.

In these things it's often easy to see a price which is falling and it's just a case of matching as much as you can before the price settles down when you can trade out. A lot easier said than done, good fun when it works though

Any trading I do would be relatively small stakes unless I got to the position where I was playing with profit
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  #125  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
Could you elaborate?
Yes, there are usually a lot of Arbs around Eurovision. The fact that there are tells me a lot of punters have:

1. Got no other betting accounts or
2. Cannot be bothered checking other bookie prices or
3. Cannot be bothered going to the odds checking sites to get a better price. or
4. It's "easier" on Betfair or
5. Some other reason I haven't fathomed out yet

I also suspect[although no proof whatsoever but if the Forum is at all representative then I'm convinced] that the average age of the layers may be older than the voting public and they be putting their own view in with the odds they set. This may be where you get "none of the good songs win" from. When assessing the songs you need to be objective as possible and look at the poll and analysis sites and tap in to the voting public as best as you can.

Last edited by herts_palace; 26-05-2010 at 11:23 AM.
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  #126  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Louis
It's not the 'good ones' that win in Eurovision though is it? Key thing I suppose is to work out which might get the most votes (as opposed to personal likes and dislikes).
For me that is the key in this market. Last time I did this market was probably 3 years ago but I don't remember trading in play as it could be difficult to say the least. However a knowledge of the voting positions might help.
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  #127  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:31 AM
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I'm on the look for some statistical analyses of the voting patterns. An academic journal has already popped up

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  #128  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by herts_palace
For me that is the key in this market. Last time I did this market was probably 3 years ago but I don't remember trading in play as it could be difficult to say the least. However a knowledge of the voting positions might help.
I have learned from experience that it is easy to get attached to things you bet on. This would be more likely with things like music - it would be easy to fall in love with a song and/or singer that you really like
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  #129  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:33 AM
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You can download another in .pdf form now

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  #130  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:34 AM
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  #131  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:34 AM
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and finally

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  #132  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
I'm on the look for some statistical analyses of the voting patterns. An academic journal has already popped up

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Looks interesting. Have you read it and if so what's the conclusion? I couldn't see any from skimming the paper.
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  #133  
Old 26-05-2010, 11:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GodstoneEagle
and finally

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Good stuff GE. If I get time tomorrow I will investigate the market, then look at the info you have quoted to see if there are any opportunities.

I'm off now for a 9 mile run!
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  #134  
Old 26-05-2010, 12:36 PM
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I'll have a read too and we'll try and come to some conclusions so we can all benefit
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  #135  
Old 27-05-2010, 05:28 PM
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Dabbled in the Eurovision market a bit today (ahead of 2nd semifinal tonight), built up a fair liability on Israel so thought I should check out the songs at the head of the market.

Azerbaijan ticks pretty much every box!! Catchy, she's fit and it's called 'drip-drop', perfect!!

2.8 fav but must trade lower after tonight surely... tempted, very tempted. Might have 200 at 2.8, downside won't be much unless she has a total mare

Will certainly be trading out of Israel before that rubbish...probably win of course Need to be matched at 14.0 to get a nice green on it having backed it at 14.5 and 16.0 this afternoon

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  #136  
Old 27-05-2010, 08:39 PM
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Initial Analysis on Eurovision.

1. Not many Arbs about- only found 1 so far
2. Some of the songs sound reasonable!
3. Having looked at previous winners, 8 of the last 9 have won it for the first time. If this was to continue this would increase the chances of Azerbaijan and Germany
4. A lot of Baltic states have won it recently.
5 Now off to read some of GE's docs
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  #137  
Old 28-05-2010, 01:59 AM
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Azerbaijan won't win due to the tactical voting surely? Not enough friends to vote for it.

Baltic/Scandinavian winner for sure IMO.

Will read some of those docs though and see what they say.
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  #138  
Old 28-05-2010, 07:59 AM
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Yep, most of May's profits wiped out by that trade, they're now at 3.8, will try to claw some of that back over the next day and a half
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Old 28-05-2010, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Finbar
Yep, most of May's profits wiped out by that trade, they're now at 3.8, will try to claw some of that back over the next day and a half
Sorry to hear that. But it's good that you posted your loss, as well as posting your wins. I watched the clip you posted yesterday and agree it is an excellent song performed well - so much better than the Eurovision songs I remember from the 70s - you could imagine the song being in the charts on its' own right without the benefit of Eurovision. But I thought a price of 2.84 was a bit short bearing in mind the number of entrants - aren't there somewhere around 20 or 30? I could guess the Azerbaijan will be in the top 3 or so.
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Old 28-05-2010, 11:03 AM
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Happy to put up my losses as well, have managed to have very few of those recently though (talking about trading rather than normal betting!) slightly miffed at getting greedy on this one though, could have been worse as was tempted to put more than the 200 on.

My whole ethos is trading while stuff isn't happening so there are no big price jumps, guess I got greedy and the gambler in me couldn't resist. Maybe I'll put some money in my Betdaq account for the more volatile stuff and try to steadily increase my betfair account that way. From August will try to only bet on the unders / overs markets in Premiership / La Liga / Champs league / Internationals but is annoying when Betfair has markets which no other bookie has.

Have made a few quid back on the Eurovision market but am sure I will end up losing overall (unless I trade it in running which I might do...)
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