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  #10961  
Old 18-06-2021, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Reps AJ View Post
Better off comparing to the 2010 result, then it's only a loss of 2k votes
So a worse performance than an election where Labour won exactly 29% of the vote nationally? That's reassuring.
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  #10962  
Old 18-06-2021, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by meee View Post
So a worse performance than an election where Labour won exactly 29% of the vote nationally? That's reassuring.
I'm just enjoying the Tory defeat
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  #10963  
Old 18-06-2021, 05:43 PM
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Yes but NKE likes a good sneer.
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  #10964  
Old 18-06-2021, 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Reps AJ View Post
I'm just enjoying the Tory defeat
On the Labour thread... our partying knows no boundaries.
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  #10965  
Old 18-06-2021, 10:01 PM
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Batley & Spen, constituency voting intention:

CON: 47% (+11)
LAB: 41% (-2)
WPGB: 6% (+6)
LDEM: 3% (-2)

No Local Ind Grp (-12) and Brex (-3) as prev.

via
@Survation
, 09 - 17 Jun
Chgs. w/ GE2019
Starmer better hope this isn’t right.
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  #10966  
Old 19-06-2021, 05:38 AM
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Originally Posted by cockneyrebel View Post
Starmer better hope this isn’t right.
It’s not hard to believe. It’s not exactly a Labour stronghold. It was a Tory marginal from inception until Labour won it under Blair. But even then it is a 5k majority sort of seat. It never goes huge Labour until the by election after Jo Cox was murdered. Had that never happened it would have almost certainly already fallen in 2017 or 2019 as a number of the bordering constituencies already did (Calder Valley in 2017, Wakefield in 2019, Morley and Outwood in 2015)

Much though I think Starmer is useless you cannot put this all on him.
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  #10967  
Old 19-06-2021, 06:19 AM
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As I put previously as well, Brabin would’ve lost in ‘19 as well, were it not for the vote for the Tories being split three ways. A Tory victory here would be spun as a shock defeat, but it really wouldn’t be given history.
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  #10968  
Old 19-06-2021, 06:45 AM
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Originally Posted by cockneyrebel View Post
Starmer better hope this isn’t right.
Survation sampled only around 500 respondents on the phone, far too small for any degree of accuracy, and frankly phone polls are pretty useless anyway, having conducted many personally over several years.

However, the fact that it is indicating that Galloway is receiving 6% of support, is telling us that we know elements of the anti Starmer left are going to make a point, and they will be the ones most likely to enter the booths.

It is the rest of the polling feedback that makes the most uncomfortable reading for Labour and Starmer supporters. You can see it all here:

To view the link you have to Register or Login

Again, there is no detail from each respondent as to why they think and responded in the way they did.

Last edited by SE25 exile; 19-06-2021 at 06:55 AM.
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  #10969  
Old 19-06-2021, 06:51 AM
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Johnson is seen as more trustworthy than Starmer? That’s a little surprising. But at the same time I am amazed as many as 32% of people think it is clear what a Starmer stands for because even Starmer doesn’t seem to know that.
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  #10970  
Old 19-06-2021, 06:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adlerhorst View Post
Johnson is seen as more trustworthy than Starmer? Thatís a little surprising. But at the same time I am amazed as many as 32% of people think it is clear what a Starmer stands for because even Starmer doesnít seem to know that.
Exactly what I thought on both counts
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  #10971  
Old 19-06-2021, 07:04 AM
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Originally Posted by cockneyrebel View Post
Starmer better hope this isnít right.
I hope Muslim voters on the doorsteps who Galloway is trying to court give him the hairdryer treatment for his Xinjiang genocide denial.
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  #10972  
Old 19-06-2021, 07:16 AM
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Interesting dilemma now for both Johnson and Starmer.

The papers are full this morning about Tory fears for the the blue wall in the south crumbling as a result of focusing on the red wall, and Starmer losing the red wall in the north. Maybe they will cancel each other out in 2024.
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  #10973  
Old 19-06-2021, 08:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
Interesting dilemma now for both Johnson and Starmer.

The papers are full this morning about Tory fears for the the blue wall in the south crumbling as a result of focusing on the red wall, and Starmer losing the red wall in the north. Maybe they will cancel each other out in 2024.
I think it will take a while. As I see it Blair won his victories by taking the red wall votes for granted and wooing other constituencies (in both sense of the word), which works for a while as it takes time for such seats to change hands when there is so much history of voting a certain way. I think the Tories could do something similar for the next couple of elections but certainly it does suggest that the electoral landscape could look very different in ten years.
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  #10974  
Old 19-06-2021, 08:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SE25 exile View Post
Interesting dilemma now for both Johnson and Starmer.

The papers are full this morning about Tory fears for the the blue wall in the south crumbling as a result of focusing on the red wall, and Starmer losing the red wall in the north. Maybe they will cancel each other out in 2024.
If there was ever a time for a strong Lib Dem party, this is it
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  #10975  
Old 19-06-2021, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Nth Kent Eagle View Post
You need a new scriptwriter.
as do you
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  #10976  
Old 19-06-2021, 09:22 PM
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I see Starmer has sacked his top staff.
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  #10977  
Old 25-06-2021, 10:06 AM
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In the latest poll the Tories have dropped three points and Labour have managed the feat of also losing a point. Well done Starmer.

That aside I see Blair's advisors are talking more and more hold of the Starmer ship. Policies will be ditched as we go along.

Quote:
Labour has given the strongest sign yet that it has gone back on its new leader’s pledge that he would introduce free social care if his party won power, after a shadow cabinet member said such a policy would be too expensive.

Thangam Debbonaire told female party members at a meeting last weekend that introducing free social care for disabled and older people would “give the Tories a stick to beat Labour with”, Disability News Service (DNS) has been told.
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  #10978  
Old 25-06-2021, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted by cockneyrebel View Post
In the latest poll the Tories have dropped three points and Labour have managed the feat of also losing a point. Well done Starmer.

That aside I see Blair's advisors are talking more and more hold of the Starmer ship. Policies will be ditched as we go along.
"A stick to beat Labour with"

These people really have no self awareness, do they?
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  #10979  
Old 25-06-2021, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by cockneyrebel View Post
In the latest poll the Tories have dropped three points and Labour have managed the feat of also losing a point. Well done Starmer.

That aside I see Blair's advisors are talking more and more hold of the Starmer ship. Policies will be ditched as we go along.
Free social care would cost about £10bn per annum (according to the last manifesto - and the IFS said that was optimistic). That’s an annual operating cost so you sort of need to think about how you would fund that.

If you cannot demonstrate how you would pay for it in a sustainable manner then you have an issue in terms of credibility.

Given Labour had a significant economic credibility issue at the last election that is something they do need to address.

Labour need to be a bit more realistic about costs and revenue generation. They cannot go in again like they did in 2019 and expect to be taken seriously. Choices are going to have to be made about which offerings remain and which are ditched.
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  #10980  
Old 25-06-2021, 10:38 AM
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I have a sense that come the next election a party pushing for EU membership will find a growng a number of supporters. It is only going to get worse by then
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