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  #301  
Old 14-06-2011, 09:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beckenham Boy
Finished 4th at Memorial 2 weeks ago and rested last week
I still don't think he's playing as well now as he was this time last year
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  #302  
Old 14-06-2011, 10:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Finbar
I still don't think he's playing as well now as he was this time last year
Last year in addition to his big hitting off the tee he was putting really well, putting seems to have deserted him this year so far and as you said he is not playing as well in general.

Think I will go for Donald (in form, good short game, rested last week), Westwood (accurate off tee, big hitter, short game and putting a worry), Choi (Solid all round, won the Players a few weeks ago), Day (Bit off form lately but fancy him to do well here) and Zach Johnson (good putter, accurate off tee, big price)

Fingers crossed.
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  #303  
Old 14-06-2011, 10:11 AM
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Yep if it comes down to putting then Donald has been incredible of late. Who else is always up there with the putting stars apart from ZJ?
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  #304  
Old 14-06-2011, 10:49 AM
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Ernie talking in the paper today about the importance of starting on the 1st hole rather than the 10th tomorrow. He reckons Lee and Luke will have even more pressure on them on Thursday starting on the 10th as it is a really difficult hole.

The 10th is a 218 yard par 3 over water onto a really thin small green. He said all those with a start on the 1st will be relieved and a lot more relaxed by the time they reach it.

Might factor that into my 1st round group betting. Cant see it making an enormous difference but I can see his thinking
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  #305  
Old 15-06-2011, 12:19 AM
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Yep similarly Poulter tweeted that the 1st nine are much much easier than the 2nd nine.

Possible trading possibilities on the later starters then. If Westwood and Donald do hit the turn a couple over then the prices on Mickelson, McIllroy and a few other of the fancied later starters might be a couple of points shorter, would only drift if one or both of those two got off to flyers...which appears unlikely. Think I'll be giving that tactic a go anyway.

Already have free bets (backed at a price and then laid off shorter for the same stake) on Senden (£120) and Fowler (£65), trying to get a couple more before it starts though a small drift on Toms might mean I take a hit on him, though as above he might well come back in before he starts anyway
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  #306  
Old 15-06-2011, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beckenham Boy
Ernie talking in the paper today about the importance of starting on the 1st hole rather than the 10th tomorrow. He reckons Lee and Luke will have even more pressure on them on Thursday starting on the 10th as it is a really difficult hole.

The 10th is a 218 yard par 3 over water onto a really thin small green. He said all those with a start on the 1st will be relieved and a lot more relaxed by the time they reach it.

Might factor that into my 1st round group betting. Cant see it making an enormous difference but I can see his thinking

We have a course we play here, where often you play off the 10th to commence.
After an innocuous 315m par 4 10th, the 11th is a 165m par 3 to a postage stamp green, carry 150m over a 50m deep ravine.
Nasty, especially at 7am after a night on the turps.

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  #307  
Old 15-06-2011, 10:39 AM
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Really not confidant here - I could stake £60 and cover 10 to 15 players but really have very little idea where this is going. I think I'm going to stick more to group betting in the 1st 2 days

Overall gone small which reflects my indecision

£1.50 e/w Rory
£1.50 e/w DJ

Groups so far 2 x trebles

Stricker/Goosen/Toms - TOMS @ 2/1
McDowell/Oosthuizen/Uilhein - GMAC @ EVS
Schwartzel/Johnson/Immelman - ZACH JOHNSON @ 7/4

and

Jacobsen/Edfors/Stenson - EDFORS @ 2/1
McDowell/Oosthuizen/Uilhein - GMAC @ EVS
Cabrera/Harrington/Cink - CINK @ 2/1

Will do some more 1st round then look at how they all fair for Day 2
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  #308  
Old 15-06-2011, 11:24 AM
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I've had mail Webb Simpson to make the cut.

Anyone find any odds out there?
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  #309  
Old 15-06-2011, 11:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ozeagle
I've had mail Webb Simpson to make the cut.

Anyone find any odds out there?
Nope can you get on betfair with an offer to see if it gets matched?
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  #310  
Old 16-06-2011, 12:32 AM
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Have been dabbling on Betfair and got the following free positions (pre commission)

David Toms = £200
Ian Poulter = £62
Mannasero = £235
Ricky Fowler = £65
Quiros = £100
F Molinari = £200
Zach Johnson = £400
John Senden = £115

Only two which I've not got matched are

Watney = £25 at 36, tried to lay off at 34.0 but now 42.0 to lay, could trade out for £3.60 loss)
MAJ = £10 at 290.0, tried to lay off at 280.0 but now 300.0 to lay, could trade out for 30p loss

Both teeing off late (pretty much all my selections are by choice) so will see if I can get them laid off for a profit before they start.

Was relatively easy to see who would drift so where there was a big blocker (e.g. current price 25, someone wants £10k at 28 you can be pretty sure it won't drift to 29.0) I put in requests at one below, worked ok and will try it for other tournamets.

The above positions would only cost about £13 to get so am only about £10 up but with a bit of honing and more experience it could be a good way to have a cheap / free interest in golf / tennis / snooker tournaments. A lot would depend on the liquidity and probably only golf would be viable, possibly not though, will have fun finding out. Starting betfair pot is £150, will probably trade any greens in running to try to guarantee a profit
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  #311  
Old 16-06-2011, 12:36 AM
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Other non betfair bets are Kuchar e/w, Donald, D Johnson on the outrights

MAJ top continental Europe at 22/1

Zach Johnson top US e/w at 40/1

Toying with also adding McIllroy...
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  #312  
Old 16-06-2011, 07:45 AM
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Fin, I'm daft and I know there is a betfair trading thread but can you explain above to me. You say these are free positions so what / how have you done to get to this position?
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  #313  
Old 16-06-2011, 10:00 AM
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I'm seriously starting to think the only real value in golf betting is group betting. I'm on 2 x 3 match trebles each paying about 17/1. This is for 3 people to each win their prospective 3 ball event on Day 1. Basically there are 9 people involved over 18 holes.

Compare that to about 12/1 on Donald to beat 160 odd people over 4 days and 72 holes.

I realise my risk is I need 3 people to all do well compared to 1, but they are each playing against 2 other people over 18 holes and not 160 people over 72 holes

I'm struggling to justify to myself why I should continue betting on individuals
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Last edited by Beckenham Boy; 16-06-2011 at 10:03 AM.
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  #314  
Old 16-06-2011, 10:14 AM
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BB, you are right, picking the winner of a golf tournament at the minute is tougher than picking a winner in the Grand National.
I also like three ball betting more.
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Old 16-06-2011, 10:46 AM
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  #316  
Old 16-06-2011, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StuNick
BB, you are right, picking the winner of a golf tournament at the minute is tougher than picking a winner in the Grand National.
I also like three ball betting more.
Except for the very occasional exception the National is won by one of the top 5 or 6 in the market almost every year!

Have to say I did very well in the matchplay betting but for low stakes big win betting golf is very very good, swings and roundabouts I guess.

Almost time for kick off
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  #317  
Old 16-06-2011, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Beckenham Boy
Fin, I'm daft and I know there is a betfair trading thread but can you explain above to me. You say these are free positions so what / how have you done to get to this position?
Not daft at all! Basically it's low risk (the idea is no risk but of course that's pretty much impossible!) which suits me right now as am cutting back on betting till I can get a job out here in Aus.

Simply it's backing a player at one price and them laying them back at a lower price (not laying at one price and then backing at a bigger price as that is a lot harder, unless you're dealing with massively odds on)

My best position is Zach Johnson, after waiting a day or so I got him backed at 130.0 for £20, there was very little money waiting to be matched at either 120.0 or 110.0 so I was a bit greedy and tried to get him laid back at 110.0 (normally I would play it safe and go for 120.0)

Put simply £20 at a 20pt difference is £400
£20 @ 130.0 = £2600 to me
£20 @ 110.0 = £2200 paid out to someone else and I keep the difference

Nick Watney now looks like his price is coming in, will still let that one ride I think. Like I said the free bets only total little over £10 in staking money but it does feel good to see lots of green for little or no outlay, can have some fun laying in running, if ZJ hits 8/1 in running I probably would take the £50ish.

Not sure if the above answers you, let me know if not as it's something I can talk about till the cows come home (there are quite a few different ways of trying to get 'free' money on betfair like this, I'm still trying to work out how to make it work in the long run, having the patience is the hardest part)
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  #318  
Old 16-06-2011, 11:04 AM
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cheers - might have a look at this then as rarely use bf
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Old 16-06-2011, 11:10 AM
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Do you need that liquidity available?

For example you say you have laid Zach £20 at 110 which means you would have to pay out £2,200 if he won (albeit you have £2,600 incoming) - would you need to have the £2,200 as account liquidity?

What happens if the person who has taken your Zach 130 bet does not have the liquidity to pay you?
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  #320  
Old 16-06-2011, 11:13 AM
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No if you back first and then lay you only need the funds in your account for the £20 back part of the bet, once you've been matched for the £2600 then you can afford to pay out the £2200. The person laying the £2600 has to have that in their account so being paid out is never an issue with Betfair.
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