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  #1  
Old 16-05-2020, 09:03 PM
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Pandemic 2020: How does it effect property?

Are we on the cusp of a profound change in housing/property across the developed world? Speaking for my city NYC there’s a lot of factors encouraging people to sell up and move out.

In my industry, film production, the shift to remote working had been pretty seamless. All the workers I have spoken to have been told they’ll be asked to continue to work remotely even after any distance guidance is lifted. I expect this is common for many industries. The market for office space must be collapsing.

NYC has seen a significant reduction in population, especially in higher income groups. Plenty left to stay in second homes or live with family in areas with more space and lower infection rates.

Estate agents are seeing hugely increased interest in properties in the suburbs and smaller cities, big drop in interest in NYC itself.

House prices and rental costs are vastly lower outside than of NYC. Schools better, quality/ease of life better.

The nightlife and arts/entertainment scene that makes NYC so vibrant is at a standstill. The subway is wholly unsuited to distancing.

Summer is going to be brutal for many with so many of the places people usually go to chill and cool off closed. The headlines are going to be about AC units rather than ventilators if we get a hot one.

Multiple economic stressors. The US is looking at 30 million unemployed. There’s going to be many unable to meet rent and mortgage payments. There’ll be a significant drop in unemployment payments by the end of July.

There’s been no stimulus measures for the property industry. Developers, with projects stalled, must worrying about cash flow.

I can see confidence across the whole property sector collapsing in NYC.

I’m less familiar with the exact circumstances, but much of that must also be true for London, and probably many other big cities.

There’s plenty on here with vastly better knowledge of the property and financial sectors than I. Any talk about the future of property?
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Old 16-05-2020, 09:12 PM
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I would have thought it will exert huge downward pressure on rents and purchase prices inside cities, yes. People will have to bring rents down to maintain tenants. Air BnB landlords in cities will take a ginormous hit for a long period.
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Old 16-05-2020, 09:15 PM
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I'm quite bearish on property in general and think we're due a major correction in the UK. If it happens in the US it will happen here.

There will be a big argument for moving out of cities. You pay extortionate rent and don't really have a safe way to get to work. A lot of my colleagues moved back to their home towns at the start of lockdown. I imagine they won't be renewing their tenancy agreements.

I live ~100 miles from London now and used to go into the office there occasionally - doubt I'll be back in 2020.

There may more remote opportunities for us out of town people now.
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Old 16-05-2020, 09:16 PM
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House prices will drop... probably 20%. The poor will be hit hardest... the rich will make a killing.
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Old 16-05-2020, 09:33 PM
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House prices will drop... probably 20%. The poor will be hit hardest... the rich will make a killing.
I don't think residential property will be that badly hit a lot of properties are held without Mortgages so a lot of people not under pressure to sell. Interest Rates will remain low for some time until Inflation takes off with the Currency that has been put into circulation.

Normally House Price Crashes come around about every 18 years so probably around 2026?!

Commercial Property though looks in big trouble as the Pandemic has shown more people can work from home successfully.

Why pay for expensive office Accommodation when it is not required?!

Maybe Companies can reduce this down and make savings.
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Old 16-05-2020, 09:44 PM
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I don't think residential property will be that badly hit a lot of properties are held without Mortgages so a lot of people not under pressure to sell. Interest Rates will remain low for some time until Inflation takes off with the Currency that has been put into circulation.



Normally House Price Crashes come around about every 18 years so probably around 2026?!



Commercial Property though looks in big trouble as the Pandemic has shown more people can work from home successfully.



Why pay for expensive office Accommodation when it is not required?!



Maybe Companies can reduce this down and make savings.

I think we’ll see a 10% drop this year... and then a further drop when the 2nd wave (which will probably be worse) hits... I also think house prices will drop after Covid... as people realise that a lot of jobs can be done just as well from home... this will hit inner city properties and the commercial market. Hope I’m wrong and you’re right.
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Old 16-05-2020, 09:45 PM
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I don't think residential property will be that badly hit a lot of properties are held without Mortgages so a lot of people not under pressure to sell. Interest Rates will remain low for some time until Inflation takes off with the Currency that has been put into circulation.

Normally House Price Crashes come around about every 18 years so probably around 2026?!

Commercial Property though looks in big trouble as the Pandemic has shown more people can work from home successfully.

Why pay for expensive office Accommodation when it is not required?!

Maybe Companies can reduce this down and make savings.
Maybe not immediately but once the crisis is over, if remote working establishes itself as a standard working culture then I can see can an exodus from densely populated cities. I always dreamed of living in the mountains, if I can work from home then why not?
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Old 16-05-2020, 09:56 PM
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Utter nonsense.

People have short memories ; cities will thrive.
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Old 16-05-2020, 10:01 PM
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Old 16-05-2020, 10:08 PM
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I think we’ll see a 10% drop this year... and then a further drop when the 2nd wave (which will probably be worse) hits... I also think house prices will drop after Covid... as people realise that a lot of jobs can be done just as well from home... this will hit inner city properties and the commercial market. Hope I’m wrong and you’re right.
Yes watching with interest to see what happens as this is a bit of a Black Swan Event and taken a lot of people by surprise.

As you say the big Cities could be badly hit more by this as people decide to move out. The likes of Amazon and other Tech Companies have been pretty robust during the Pandemic with their business models.

The High Street may become a thing of the past or become a different shopper experience.
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Old 16-05-2020, 10:10 PM
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Each city will have its own demographic and geographic issues but I’m not sure that the London housing market will collapse. The population is growing so fast, the demographic is very young, there is such an enormous concentration of the UKs top jobs and global corporations, plus interest rates are just so low long term.
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Old 16-05-2020, 10:12 PM
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Maybe not immediately but once the crisis is over, if remote working establishes itself as a standard working culture then I can see can an exodus from densely populated cities. I always dreamed of living in the mountains, if I can work from home then why not?
Why not if you can do your job and your Internet Connection is good.

I suppose as well it depends on what type of job you do?!

If you are a professional footballer it may not work!
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Old 16-05-2020, 10:59 PM
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Each city will have its own demographic and geographic issues but I’m not sure that the London housing market will collapse. The population is growing so fast, the demographic is very young, there is such an enormous concentration of the UKs top jobs and global corporations, plus interest rates are just so low long term.
New York was already experiencing a small reduction in population before the crisis, mostly due to high rent prices. I can only see the crisis accelerating the migration.

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Old 16-05-2020, 11:04 PM
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Yep.

Two main factors

Unemployment

Remote working
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Old 16-05-2020, 11:29 PM
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One side effect i can see happening is an increase in summerhouses and similar garden buildings, as the increase in working from home will lead to people looking to create their own office space.
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Old 16-05-2020, 11:34 PM
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... The market for office space must be collapsing.

... Estate agents are seeing hugely increased interest in properties in the suburbs and smaller cities, big drop in interest in NYC itself.

... There’s been no stimulus measures for the property industry. Developers, with projects stalled, must worrying about cash flow.

... I can see confidence across the whole property sector collapsing in NYC.
Anything that ****s up Donald Trump is just fine and dandy in my book!

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As of 2019, Trump's net worth (as estimated by Forbes Magazine) is $3.1 billion, with about half of that coming from his New York City real estate holdings...
Don't most New Yorker rent?
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Old 17-05-2020, 03:54 AM
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Don't most New Yorker rent?
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Old 17-05-2020, 04:38 AM
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House prices will drop... probably 20%. The poor will be hit hardest... the rich will make a killing.
No chance
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Old 17-05-2020, 06:46 AM
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No chance

Hope you’re right... but I think we’ve got to learn to live with Coronavirus for 3-5 years. It will be cat n mouse... not constant... but it ain’t going anywhere soon. Life won’t be “normal” for a long time. Even if there is a vaccine... not every person will get it.
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Old 17-05-2020, 06:49 AM
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I would have thought it will exert huge downward pressure on rents and purchase prices inside cities, yes. People will have to bring rents down to maintain tenants. Air BnB landlords in cities will take a ginormous hit for a long period.
Ooh, at last I can afford to come visit you.
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