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Old 07-11-2019, 06:31 PM
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Grand Solar Minimum

I have decided to create this thread to put up an alternative view of the climate to that which the UN/IPCC have with the demonising of CO2, in particular, the role humans play.

No doubt there will be ridicule, unlike the UN/IPCC I will have the Science Papers to back up my claims, which can be replicated by those who wish to do so. So I see this thread as a journey.

More importantly, the climate over the coming years starting now will prove or disprove this thread and the science.

My view is that the sun has the greatest impact on our climate and our neighbouring planets. The cycles of the sun are influenced by the sun’s internal dynamo and the gravity of the planets/bodies circling it. Hence why the temperature has varied over time.


The number of sunspots tells us how active the sun is through various cycles. The polarity of the sunspots changing indicates we have moved to a new 22 year Solar Cycle, this happened last week we are now in solar cycle 25. Which is predicted to be less active than the last. Leaving cycle 24 is saying goodbye to the Modern Maximum and Hallo Modern Grand Minimum.

So how do we know what cycle 25 and beyond will bring? Professor Valentina Zharkova she discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicates that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one.

But there is some good news too, Solar Irradiance will increase for the next 500 years as the earth moves closer to the sun the northern hemisphere will be warmer in summer and colder in winter. Unfortunately, we are not going to get the full benefit of this for some time.

To view the link you have to Register or Login This is her paper in nature providing you with more detail.



Above shows, the number of Sunspots observed over the past 400 years with Nasa prediction for Cycle 25.

Yes, it is going to get cooler. The immediate concern is 2028-2032 severe cold weather will impact on farming with food shortages. Intergovernmental action is needed to address the disaster. Stocks of food for people and animals need to be stored in advance of these years. Putting it into perspective, the population was a 10th in size in then the demand for food will be greater. Heres an article of what life was like.

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So taking a look at other planets is it a coincidence that the southern ice cap on mars is shrinking similar to the Arctic. No man-made CO2 there? Or the red spot on Jupiter is diminishing.

IPCC Climate models use Irradiance only for the effect of the sun on the temperature, they miss the impact of the magnetic fields. During a minimum, the cosmetic rays will breakdown the cloud cover resulting in reduced temperatures in the atmosphere. Like opening a window in a greenhouse, whilst during a maximum period cloud cover traps the heat the greenhouse effect. Statistically, during the Minimum, there is also an uptick in earthquakes and volcanos.

No, burning CO2 is not going to save us.

Below is a video of Valentina presenting to the Global Warming Policy Foundation.
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My notes from the video follow:-
o She previously presented to the Royal Astronomical Society some climate scientists were unhappy with her work and wanted her funding stopped. Why?
o When predicting Cycle 24 out of 150 models only 2 predicted it to be less active than Cycle 23. It was less active.
o 32 minutes in, Proved past and predicted future solar cycles, where we are leaving a solar maximum and entering a minimum.
o Solar Inertion motion, this means that the Sun moves pulled around by the Planets that circle it. Consequently, the planet will be warmer or colder depending on where a planet is in relation to the sun. During the Roman period, the earth was closer, hence grapes were once grown in Scotland close to Shetlands Islands.
o 1:16:00, CO2 impact on temperature is too small to measure, they can’t. Then who says CO2 is warming the planet they do not give you the instrument to measure it. It is a religion. If it is correct science I can do it you can do it she says.
o People From IPCC do not listen, they are blinkered.
o The chairman stated Science makes predictions and test them and learn from them. We no longer have a culture that allows you to present your findings. Which makes it difficult to present your findings any more.

So what evidence do we have to date that things are cooling?

The Solar Minimum changes the behaviour of the jet streams, it becomes very wavey, in the Northern Hemisphere pulling cool air from the artic and warmer air from the south. We can see this happening, the cool air in the past week in North America, while MSM report on California fires, many of the states have set record cold temperatures for October. ‘ The coldest is the weather station located at the bottom of the sink took the -35F (-37.2C) reading at approximately 6:15 AM on Monday morning, Oct 28 — beating-out the previous October record low of -33F (-36.1C) set way back in 1917 (just after weak solar cycle 14, which was similar to the cycle we’ve just experienced, 24).’

Norway is experiencing record levels of snow this early in November with a snow depth of 70 cm on flat ground. You have to go back 1922 to find more (83 cm) at the same date.

Ski resorts in Colorado opened the earliest ever this year, last weekend. Ski resorts in Australia are still getting snow.


Snow is not too far away, it is the only beginning of November. It will make its way south, Artic Ice recovering nicely. To view the link you have to Register or Login

Last edited by Ifill Over; 07-11-2019 at 07:42 PM. Reason: Spelling Irradiance
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:50 PM
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You could poke so many holes in this I don't even really know where to start.

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I suppose that's as good as any place.

Edit: Not sure quoting Jo Nova is going to do your argument any favours either.

Last edited by TennesseeKing; 07-11-2019 at 07:15 PM.
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Old 07-11-2019, 07:30 PM
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You could poke so many holes in this I don't even really know where to start.

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I suppose that's as good as any place.

Edit: Not sure quoting Jo Nova is going to do your argument any favours either.
No point poking holes. The climate will confirm one way or the other. As I stated, the thread is a journey. Also as stated in the link you provided they only measure irradiance.

Re-edit, just there for as a historical reference and not the science.

Last edited by Ifill Over; 07-11-2019 at 07:51 PM.
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Old 07-11-2019, 07:32 PM
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All these 'experts.' Both the autodidact man in the street and those actually 'qualified.' Reasoned arguments, backed by data, but giving different results. Yet few people don't have absolute certainty as to what is going on and, strangely, the advocates and deniers of Climate Change seem to belong to a left/right political divide. As with everything these days, a person's political leanings seems to enforce an entire, cultish spectrum of thought that spans everything from the abortion debate through to the subject of this thread. And never the twain shall meet.

I have no idea if Climate Change is man-made or a natural cycle. Too many people, who should know better than me, give me divergent answers seemingly based on political allegiences. All I do believe is we should adopt greener policies just for the sake of prudence and because we do know air pollution creates health issues but that's about as far as I go in terms of what I can confidently believe.
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Old 07-11-2019, 07:34 PM
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o She previously presented to the Royal Astronomical Society some climate scientists were unhappy with her work and wanted her funding stopped. Why?
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There's no conspiracy. It's just based on nonsense.
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Old 07-11-2019, 07:36 PM
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The one paper you've based your whole argument off of has been cited a grand total of 0 times within scientific journals too. I wonder why. Must be a conspiracy.
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Old 07-11-2019, 07:44 PM
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All these 'experts.' Both the autodidact man in the street and those actually 'qualified.' Reasoned arguments, backed by data, but giving different results. Yet few people don't have absolute certainty as to what is going on and, strangely, the advocates and deniers of Climate Change seem to belong to a left/right political divide. As with everything these days, a person's political leanings seems to enforce an entire, cultish spectrum of thought that spans everything from the abortion debate through to the subject of this thread. And never the twain shall meet.

I have no idea if Climate Change is man-made or a natural cycle. Too many people, who should know better than me, give me divergent answers seemingly based on political allegiences. All I do believe is we should adopt greener policies just for the sake of prudence and because we do know air pollution creates health issues but that's about as far as I go in terms of what I can confidently believe.
The thing I don't get is, the whole climate change denial thing is based around CO2 not being the main driver of climate change, but the sun instead.

If by some miracle they're proven right down the line against the overwhelming body of evidence suggesting it's mainly driven by CO2 emissions, it doesn't change the fact that we're messing up the planet with the amount of carbon we're releasing so should be doing what we can to stop it completely wrecking the planet.

Quite frankly I don't give a toss whether it's the sun, CO2 or some other reason. The effects of climate change are there for all to see and some people are doing their level best to stop real change from happening and trying to actually save the planet. The likes of Trump being the most obvious example.

Phenological mismatches, ocean acidification, I could go on. It's all just scratching at the surface of a huge problem happening right now and it's largely caused by CO2 emissions.

Last edited by TennesseeKing; 07-11-2019 at 07:48 PM.
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Old 07-11-2019, 07:53 PM
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The thing I don't get is, the whole climate change denial thing is based around CO2 not being the main driver of climate change, but the sun instead.

If by some miracle they're proven right down the line against the overwhelming body of evidence suggesting it's mainly driven by CO2 emissions, it doesn't change the fact that we're messing up the planet with the amount of carbon we're releasing so should be doing what we can to stop it completely wrecking the planet.

Quite frankly I don't give a toss whether it's the sun, CO2 or some other reason. The effects of climate change are there for all to see and some people are doing their level best to stop real change from happening and trying to actually save the planet.

Phenological mismatches, ocean acidification, I could go on. It's all just scratching at the surface of a huge problem happening right now and it's largely caused by CO2 emissions.
I certainly agree that, even if we are progressing through a natural and unavoidable cycle of climate change that may be unpleasant to face, adding artificial elemants into the biosphere cannot be a good, long term policy. How far we should go and how much economic sacrifice we should make to try to avert even the possibility of CO2 being the threat it is claimed, is another matter altogether. I just don't see Mankind acting in unison, not with all those national and corporate interests going on. What would be nice would be an explosion of wealth and health generation via new fuel / power sources but whether that could replace fossil fuels without civilization grinding to a halt depends, again, on who you talk to.
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:03 PM
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If mankind believes that it needs to do its upmost to minimise climate change, what difference does it make whether it’s man made or not? it’s the same potential net result.

Are some people suggesting that the recorded increases in temperature don’t need addressing if it turns out not to be man made?

I’m personally looking forward to mankind being put right back in its place, self inflicted or not.
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:11 PM
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I certainly agree that, even if we are progressing through a natural and unavoidable cycle of climate change that may be unpleasant to face, adding artificial elemants into the biosphere cannot be a good, long term policy. How far we should go and how much economic sacrifice we should make to try to avert even the possibility of CO2 being the threat it is claimed, is another matter altogether. I just don't see Mankind acting in unison, not with all those national and corporate interests going on. What would be nice would be an explosion of wealth and health generation via new fuel / power sources but whether that could replace fossil fuels without civilization grinding to a halt depends, again, on who you talk to.
My skepticism comes from the fact it's predominantly those with vested interests who turn around and say it's nothing to do with CO2. Those with the most to lose from regulation of emissions (Money). They then proceed with smear campaigns and get gullible people believing things that aren't really substantiated, peer reviewed or backed by hard science.

It's no different with evolution deniers. Scientific "fact" works on the basis of having enough established, peer reviewed evidence behind it to become accepted as all but fact until such a substantial body of evidence shows it to be wrong (which doesn't exactly happen often). Therefore until that body of evidence to the contrary is produced, peer reviewed and found to be robust it's very hard to take their opinions seriously.

People get caught up within it with entrenched views and as you've previously mentioned it all becomes a tribal shit-slinging contest with the environment/planet taking a backseat to the circus that follows. Do we want to try and look after the planet to the best of our ability or not? And I believe it's easily answered. Those who make money from things that are to the detriment of the planet aren't going to be interested in changing their ways.
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:20 PM
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I've read this theory too. Basically the distance between the earth and the sun varies each year but the amount of variance goes in cycles due to the interaction between the sun and Jupiter. Over the next few decades the variance between the nearest and furthest distances of the earth from the sun each year is much lower than average. This means that the northern hemisphere will be warmer than average.
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:21 PM
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All these 'experts.' Both the autodidact man in the street and those actually 'qualified.' Reasoned arguments, backed by data, but giving different results. Yet few people don't have absolute certainty as to what is going on and, strangely, the advocates and deniers of Climate Change seem to belong to a left/right political divide. As with everything these days, a person's political leanings seems to enforce an entire, cultish spectrum of thought that spans everything from the abortion debate through to the subject of this thread. And never the twain shall meet.

I have no idea if Climate Change is man-made or a natural cycle. Too many people, who should know better than me, give me divergent answers seemingly based on political allegiences. All I do believe is we should adopt greener policies just for the sake of prudence and because we do know air pollution creates health issues but that's about as far as I go in terms of what I can confidently believe.
The vast majority of climate change deniers are right wing/leaning as far as I can tell. They generally have an affinity for corporations, or believe some kind of nonsense about a globalist, world government trying to control us. Essentially a conspiracy-ish step up from a right winger who doesn’t like big government on a national level. And then sometimes it can be linked to explicit anti Semitism, like that Aussie fella one of the deniers cited on the other thread (who’s name escapes me).

I don’t particularly see the ‘cultish’ element of the left on climate change though. Sure you have a few weirdos who turn up to extinction rebellion protests and make the news for the wrong reasons that probably qualify, but outside of that? It’s just accepting scientific consensus. Whereas every climate change denier I’ve encountered has some kind of ludicrous or silly belief not supported by science that you’d expect from a cultist.

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Old 07-11-2019, 08:31 PM
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I do have a question for those who claim to be climate change skeptics.

If you believe that it's predominantly the sun causing climate change rather than CO2.

Where do you stand on carbon emissions causing issues for the ocean? Do we continue as we are regardless of impact? Is it such a minimal issue that people don't care about the effect we're having?

Just curious. Do people that believe that climate change is naturally occurring even care about the impacts of CO2?
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:33 PM
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The thing I don't get is, the whole climate change denial thing is based around CO2 not being the main driver of climate change, but the sun instead.

If by some miracle they're proven right down the line against the overwhelming body of evidence suggesting it's mainly driven by CO2 emissions, it doesn't change the fact that we're messing up the planet with the amount of carbon we're releasing so should be doing what we can to stop it completely wrecking the planet.

Quite frankly I don't give a toss whether it's the sun, CO2 or some other reason. The effects of climate change are there for all to see and some people are doing their level best to stop real change from happening and trying to actually save the planet. The likes of Trump being the most obvious example.

Phenological mismatches, ocean acidification, I could go on. It's all just scratching at the surface of a huge problem happening right now and it's largely caused by CO2 emissions.
Yep. Main cause or not we are ducking it up! Ironically bad for the ducks too!

Thing that bothers me about the reaction to climate change is you get the extremists that piss everyone off. Nothing in the middle and then those that refuse to believe it or treat the planet as some kind of charity and someone else’s problem! Charity begins at home......IT IS YOUR ******* HOME
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:36 PM
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Whether it is mainly man made or not isn't really the point. We shouldn't be creating additional or unnecessary pollution be it greenhouse gases, sulphur dioxide, plastic in the ocean, vehicle particulates, ozone etc. We should take all common sense measures to reduce it as fast as practical. As a side benefit it gives the UK a chance to relalance its economy and reduce imports.
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:42 PM
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Whether it is mainly man made or not isn't really the point. We shouldn't be creating additional or unnecessary pollution be it greenhouse gases, sulphur dioxide, plastic in the ocean, vehicle particulates, ozone etc. We should take all common sense measures to reduce it as fast as practical. As a side benefit it gives the UK a chance to relalance its economy and reduce imports.
I think facing that it’s mainly man made is very important. It creates a greater incentive to make changes then ‘oh it’s not really in our control, but we can help a bit here and there.’ There’s probably lots of deniers who don’t really believe that global warming isn’t man made, but just want to undersell human contribution as much as possible in order to reduce the urge for change, and protect corporate interests.

Last edited by CP-RJW; 07-11-2019 at 08:53 PM.
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Old 07-11-2019, 09:45 PM
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Old 07-11-2019, 10:20 PM
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(big picture snipped)
Great stuff. Thanks.
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:06 PM
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Great stuff. Thanks.
It's interesting, wouldn't call it great. It looks simplistic, lacks context and has a number of errors. Also is way too large here and perhaps intentionally so in order to drown out debate.

It has been posted by the same poster multiple times now.
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:11 PM
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And it’s been wasting bandwidth for approaching 4 years now.
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