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View Poll Results: How long before we have a new PM?
Before the end of 2022 5 11.36%
Jan-June 2023 11 25.00%
July-Dec 2023 12 27.27%
Jan-June 2024 5 11.36%
July-Dec 2024 8 18.18%
24th Jan 2025 (day after last possible GE date) 3 6.82%
Voters: 44. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 06-09-2022, 06:24 PM
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Next General Election (Or Next Tory Leadership Election)

The sure-to-be-wonderful Liz Truss has just been appointed PM. How long will she last?

23rd Jan 2025 is the last possible date for a general election, but will she call one sooner? Will she even last until a general election?
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Old 06-09-2022, 06:32 PM
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I suspect she'll go right up to the deadline.
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Old 06-09-2022, 06:47 PM
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Looks like she is trying to accelerate it by sacking everyone in government but her loyal supporters. Even Blo Jo didn’t go that far. Given she had less than a third of the MPs supporting her she has an even smaller “talent” pool, and a lot of disgruntled back benchers.
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Old 06-09-2022, 06:49 PM
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When your incoming cabinet makes the outgoing Raab look competent, that’s probably not a good thing.
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Old 06-09-2022, 07:41 PM
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I've gone for early in the new year.

Crushed by the cost of living crisis and their own sheer incompetence
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Old 06-09-2022, 07:49 PM
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At best she'll get 2 Queen's speeches (or King's it unfortunately has to be said)
But anyway, that's not enough time to push anything substantial through, is it?
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Old 06-09-2022, 09:00 PM
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The cabinet of none of the talents
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Old 06-09-2022, 09:29 PM
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Have they got the boundary changes through yet? Surely won't be before then.
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Old 06-09-2022, 09:38 PM
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So her winning the next election isn’t an option?
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Old 06-09-2022, 11:09 PM
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So her winning the next election isn’t an option?
Sure, it's a theoretical result if she survives to a general election.

I didn't include it in the options based on current polling, her leadership campaign, and the cabinet she's chosen.

Last edited by Reps AJ; 06-09-2022 at 11:12 PM.
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Old 23-09-2022, 11:08 AM
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Bumpety bump
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Old 23-09-2022, 11:21 AM
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She will survive until the next GE, she doesn't piss off as many people as Boris did and they've hit rock bottom in polling so they won't go any lower (both tory and Labour will never sink below 25-30% nos due to tribalism/tradition and the electoral system).

I think she will wait until Jan 25 citing covid recovery and the situation in Ukraine as reasons to do so and with an 80-seat majority she faces no pressure in not calling one earlier. This isn't May's wafer-thin majority, getting thrashed in elections has consequences (this is aimed at the "yeah but Corbyn" crybabies on here). Even with by-election beatings, it'll still be a 60+ majority in 2025.

In 2025 assuming Keith doesn't do anything stupid I expect a very narrow Labour majority without having to do business with the LDs or Jocks. If Boris had stayed it could have been a 1997-style landslide for Labour but enough people will give Truss a chance, plus favourable media coverage will make the tories a credible opposition post-2025.
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Old 23-09-2022, 11:22 AM
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Election in May next year has to be favourite now surely?
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Old 23-09-2022, 11:33 AM
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Yes. Today is the start of the election campaign.

"Enter the shared drive and open the folder marked 'balls-out snap election'".
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Old 23-09-2022, 11:34 AM
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Essentially the country is paying for Liz Truss' election campaign. That is quite ballsy.
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Old 23-09-2022, 12:00 PM
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The earliest I think they'll call for an election is May 2024.

With a massive majority they don't need to call one soon as they have everything to lose and nothing to gain.

Right now they'd lose an election, and that's not going to change until there's some public optimism there and they can point to 'green shoots' of recovery, whatever those are.
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Old 23-09-2022, 02:38 PM
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I don't think there will be an election soon as this budget was clearly just phase 1. She will want time to A) cut taxes for the rest of us, B) allocate about 20bn to local small spending projects that create jobs so that each MP can say look what we have done in my constituency and C) hope that the gas and petrol prices go into sharp reverse so there is more money in family pockets. Maintain unemployment at the lowest level since 1974 and they have a chance.
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Old 23-09-2022, 03:22 PM
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The election will happen a few months after the Ukraine war ends.
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Old 23-09-2022, 04:29 PM
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I don't think there will be an election soon as this budget was clearly just phase 1. She will want time to A) cut taxes for the rest of us, B) allocate about 20bn to local small spending projects that create jobs so that each MP can say look what we have done in my constituency and C) hope that the gas and petrol prices go into sharp reverse so there is more money in family pockets. Maintain unemployment at the lowest level since 1974 and they have a chance.
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Old 23-09-2022, 04:49 PM
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I don't think there will be an election soon as this budget was clearly just phase 1. She will want time to A) cut taxes for the rest of us, B) allocate about 20bn to local small spending projects that create jobs so that each MP can say look what we have done in my constituency and C) hope that the gas and petrol prices go into sharp reverse so there is more money in family pockets. Maintain unemployment at the lowest level since 1974 and they have a chance.
Problem is petrol prices are going up again now, not because of the price of oil but the fact it is traded in dollars and this announcement has weakened the against the $ even further.

Phase 2 will be in the spring and will allow them to make all the promises needed to try to win an election without having to make good on them. An election in 18 months will require them to have achieved something in that time.

It will be back to a May election in all likelihood so is it '23 or '24?
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