The Real Relegation Avoidance Calculator 2022/23

[sw16girl]

EDIT these predictions were posted on 18/02/23 #608


I really thought this was not going to be necessary. I still do not think it is really that necessary but after today's unfortunateness I think it is only going to get worse for a while considering the matches we have coming up. So I have done the usual estimate as to where we need to be. 40 points should easily be enough to stay up and in fact 38 is likely to be quite enough.

I would stress the figures below are not my predictions just estimates of approximately what we need to get to comfortably survive. I think we will actually do better. It is a really low bar to start off with and frankly if we pass the estimate on those matches we could be safe by Easter but I am hoping the below will save too many howls and predictions of disaster and relegation over the next few weeks (fat chance!)

Team.............................Predicted........ ..Actual............ +/-

Liverpool (h)........................D.....................D .................0
Villa (a)...............................L............... ......L..................0
Man C (h)............................L.................. ...L..................0
Brighton (a).........................L..................... L..................0
Arsenal (a)..........................L.................... ..L..................0
Leicester (h)........................D.....................W ................+2
Leeds (a)............................W
Southampton (a)..................D
Everton (h)..........................L
Wolves (a)...........................D
West Ham (h)......................W
Spurs (a).............................L
Bournemouth (h)..................W
Fulham (a)...........................L
Forest (h)............................D

[mapcontractor]

time for a bump/new thread?

40 points this year? So 18 points from our remaining 20 games?

The current bottom 3 would require 25 points from 19 games...

[Funk Butter]

Originally Posted by mapcontractor

time for a bump/new thread?

40 points this year? So 18 points from our remaining 20 games?

The current bottom 3 would require 25 points from 19 games...

We have a game in hand on 15th down. (I know) The bottom three are currently trending towards 30 points, so even if all of them improved during the second half, I see 18th place more than likely being at 35 points. So, my guess is we need 14 from our last 20 matches, 18 points to reach 40. Unfortunately, I can see a scenario where we get zero points for the next 2.5 months.

[HRP]

Originally Posted by Funk Butter

We have a game in hand on 15th down. (I know) The bottom three are currently trending towards 30 points, so even if all of them improved during the second half, I see 18th place more than likely being at 35 points. So, my guess is we need 14 from our last 20 matches, 18 points to reach 40. Unfortunately, I can see a scenario where we get zero points for the next 2.5 months.

It’s going to need another run of 5 games unbeaten for us to stay up.

[Kai]

We are potentially looking at 10 losses in a row. It's going to be a foul winter.

[Leeroy]

Pretty sad that after 10 years we are back flirting with relegation...
We never seem to kick on, have no real style , still playing with out a striker ffs...
I think we will be ok but its disappointing.

[Sharkba1t]

Originally Posted by Wookiee_Time

I am right back to worrying about next season.

PV's first season at Nice was nice but had the brutal spell that got him sacked season 2. No idea if management supported him the way they have so far at Palace though.

i really hope history does not repeat itself..

[Robson]

Originally Posted by Leeroy

Pretty sad that after 10 years we are back flirting with relegation...
We never seem to kick on, have no real style , still playing with out a striker ffs...
I think we will be ok but its disappointing.

Staying up this season is probably just delaying the inevitable until next, on current trajectory.

[LuieJack]

As much as we fans would like to put any fears onto the back burner as we have games in hand and sit in relative safety, or do we? unfortunately we are in a possible volatile position due to our run of poor form coupled with dodgy performances, and where it could lead to.
After yesterday's defeat against an unusally feeble Chelsea suggests if you don't punish teams who are struggling (and we have seen that happen all too often lately) then what chance have Palace got when we come up against teams shortly who are bang in form? and that is what will make us look nervously over our shoulder in the weeks ahead.
The club and importantly PV must start to instill a more positive approach/mentality into the players game if we are to come out of this "sleep" we are in, and this is where the manager can be seen as being guilty as we continue to play the safe option game making it easy for the opposition to cope with our play.
But in defence of PV, he has stated for some time now that the club needs to improve numbers but also our quality, and when he hears Steve Parish say it will most likely be loan signings in this window it must feel like a dagger in the heart to him.
Make no mistake there are some nervous times ahead and the Board needs to accept that and take action before it is too late, as we all know relegation would be disastrous for CPFC progression.

[Sureagle]

Never comfortable with all the talk of “top half finish” and “there is no way we will get relegated”. A fan who still remembers the “Oldham” relegation season. So more realistic for us Palace fans to be always looking over our shoulders and hopefully steer clear of bottom three

As others have said we can’t realistically expect too many points until April. A lot of games in April and we should be able to expect points from most of them. Then, We have Bournemouth and Forest at home in May and am hoping we are safe before that. Otherwise those games will be very tense.

My prediction is that 35-36 points should be enough for survival and hence we need another 14-15 pts. Even with some setbacks in winnable games we should be able to muster up 14-15 pts and most likely get towards 44-45 pts depending on our form in April.

[Chris Finch]

Forest and Fulham are the only recent league results you could argue we needed to get something from. Losses to Spurs (h) and Chelsea (a) to be expected, the nature of the losses is another thing.

We need an unexpected win and everything changes. We won't lose all our games for the next 2.5 months, don't panic.

[Chris Finch]

I'd also add we typically do 'show up' when we really have to. I think that starts on Wednesday versus United. Get a point in that game and Newcastle on Saturday has a positive spin going into it.

[Stigma]

What worries me more (then our form) are the teams at the bottom at the moment. West Ham/Everton can't see them going down. Southampton possibly, Bournemouth a safe bet and ?

[Sureagle]

Originally Posted by Stigma

What worries me more (then our form) are the teams at the bottom at the moment. West Ham/Everton can't see them going down. Southampton possibly, Bournemouth a safe bet and ?

Yes .. unlike recent seasons, no team is really cut adrift at the half way stage.

Head to head games amongst the bottom 8 clubs will be crucial in determining if some teams get cut adrift. We have a lot of these head to heads in April and May.

[Windsor_Eagle]

What is a consistent issue with the predictions that fans make about their teams are:

a) A view that the current trend of results will not change. They assume teams in decent form will remain so and teams in poor form, likewise

b) An in-built tendency to worry about your own teams fortunes, thus, there is a pessimistic proclivity towards nudging all matches that have a good 50-50 chance of a result towards a reduced likelihood of a good outcome

Whilst of course possible, I don't think we'll hit 10 losses in a row. I also think we'll end up safe with 2/3 games to spare and the end of season table will show us in our usual 11th - 15th positioning.

[Funk Butter]

Originally Posted by Stigma

What worries me more (then our form) are the teams at the bottom at the moment. West Ham/Everton can't see them going down. Southampton possibly, Bournemouth a safe bet and ?

What's odd is that based on expected points, West Ham should be a top half team. I haven't seen much of them play but they are by far the worst team in the league when it comes to actual goals versus expected goals so they must be wasting whatever chances come their way.

[pallet]

Cant see Bournemouth getting out of it. So it leaves 2 places, sadly I think Everton will change their manager to save themselves. Wolves had found some form, not sure about Southampton, The third place could be any number of teams including us

[bubbs11]

Posted this in another thread, but here are the points for 18th at the halfway stage the last 10 seasons, followed by the final tally for third to bottom.




…………… 19 games……….38 games

21/22………….13…………….35. +9
20/21………… 12…………….28. +4
19/20………….18…………….34. -2
18/19………….12…………… 34. +10
17/18………….16…………….33. +1
16/17………….14…………….34. +6
15/16………….17…………….37. +3
14/15………….16…………….35. +3
13/14………….16…………….33. +1
12/13………….15…………….36. +6

[wrightchipvcfc]

Before a ball was kicked this was going to be a difficult season take next season what ever 3 teams come up they will all struggle in the prem and be favourites to go straight back down .this season we didn't have 3 obvious relagation candidates maybe bournmouth and even Southampton but after that it could have been 1 of 10 that were left. forest spending all that money didn't help Fulham spending well etc add to that it was obvious once window shut we had gone backwards with a one Man midfield and no 12 goal a season striker trouble was the one person who needed to see this didn't .

[eaglesdan]

Originally Posted by Sureagle

Never comfortable with all the talk of “top half finish” and “there is no way we will get relegated”. A fan who still remembers the “Oldham” relegation season. So more realistic for us Palace fans to be always looking over our shoulders and hopefully steer clear of bottom three

As others have said we can’t realistically expect too many points until April. A lot of games in April and we should be able to expect points from most of them. Then, We have Bournemouth and Forest at home in May and am hoping we are safe before that. Otherwise those games will be very tense.

My prediction is that 35-36 points should be enough for survival and hence we need another 14-15 pts. Even with some setbacks in winnable games we should be able to muster up 14-15 pts and most likely get towards 44-45 pts depending on our form in April.

16 January, is that a new record for the earliest mention of Oldham? That season still haunts me, but it really was a unique season, unlikely to be repeated